Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[macbonzo]

There is really nothing to drive the market today. I have no intention of trading. The Dell outlook was negative, as compared to expectations so that could be a drag, however, NYMEX prices continue to fall, which should be a positve.

With light volume we could see quite a bit of volatility but my guess is that we will end up pretty much unchanged.

 

[Racer]

however, NYMEX prices continue to fall, which should be a positve.
.

Oil and energy sector have a big influence on S&P and Dow i.e., XOM and others

 

[mark twain uk]

I think that it can go either way, yesterday's rise was allegedly generated by the government bond action, that's not the most exciting piece of news, if big money decides to sell, it could drop like a stone, conversely, if the big funds want to close the year on high there will be nothing to stop the year-end rally.

And so that I don't stand on the fence, I venture to say that it will close lower today, though the chances of that are less than favourable

 

[macbonzo]

Oil and energy sector have a big influence on S&P and Dow i.e., XOM and others

Absolutely. I think we have seen money going out of the oil stocks recently, mainly due to the fall in the price of oil but also related to increased extraction and other costs. I noticed in the wednesday's FT that Munich Re had hiked insurance premiums on rigs by 400%

What we have yet to see is the oil money shifting into other sectors.

 

[User]

if big money decides to sell, it could drop like a stone, conversely, if the big funds want to close the year on high there will be nothing to stop the year-end rally.

It seems more and more likely that the big boys want to finish the year on a positive note......the small guys are getting caught out and will probably get caught out again when the big pop does come......

I have said in the past that drops occur in sudden fashion and normally occur when the expectation of a drop is low......

Yesterdays price action was excellent and as a technical trader who gives a s**t about the reason......Should we close at these levels for the week then moves towards the highs for the Dow shouldn't be ruled out......

I was a bear all year but I have also been changing direction when I have seen the relevance for doing so.......I was one of the mere few that were ruling out 11,000 when the market was sitting pretty at the highs.....10900 region.....

Now the talk is no end of year rally and that gives me more optimism about hitting 11,000 this year.......its looking more possible now then it did all year round......

Good Luck all

 

[dc2000]

I couldnt agree more in fact I have been quoting 11400 for some time but lets not get excited some of the big portfolios will want a better price for any late year rally once the current window dressing has finished

 

[SOCRATES]

I couldnt agree more in fact I have been quoting 11400 for some time but lets not get excited some of the big portfolios will want a better price for any late year rally once the current window dressing has finished

If you remember correctly, on the 10th of October in my post on this thread when the dow had closed at 10239 I said it would go up. Not only that I said it had 450 points to go.

I am told it is now at 10 651, 38 points away from the target.

No doubt this will serve to infuriate the lobster, but I am only posting this for you to be mindful that these things can accurately be worked out in advance as all of this is planned, but the planners lay their plans but hide their clues.

 

[Pat494]

Just getting back to today
imho I think it may have found resistance and be heading down a bit soon ??

 

[SOCRATES]

By the way if you want to check it, see my post on this thread number 7205 dated 10 / 10 / 05. Ha Ha Ha

 

[dc2000]

Pat494
I have no position on the Dow at the mo my thinking is that it will wait for the UK etc to close then pop n drop not too far mind 65 points will do before a turn

 

[Bigbusiness]

Well it is a bit late in the day and I have kept quiet because no sooner do I lay out the facts than some creature comes out from under a stone and makes a nuisance.

OK....The Dow has had 4 major drops since April, preceding the current one.

They are :~

April 20th
May 13th
July 7th
August 30th

On each of these bottoms there has been accumulation.

On each of the corresponding tops the distribution has not been final.

Each of these bottoms has been higher than the previous one.

Each of the tops attributable to these marked bottoms has been higher than the previous one.

This indicates that the bullish situation that started in late October last year is not exhausted up to this point.

Then we have the current drop, But the current drop appears to be running out of steam.

So, on balance, we could say the current drop is an interrruption to the bullish conditions that have prevailed up till now.

If this drop is arrested with significant volume underneath once more the next leg up potentially looks a 450 pointer.

That is the state of play at the moment, nothing more, nothing less.

Well done Socrates. I know you are too modest to gloat but you did nail this one

 

[SOCRATES]

Well done Socrates. I know you are too modest to gloat but you did nail this one

And it will go higher, I am told it is already nibbling 10, 567 at the cap.

 

[SOCRATES]

The problem is many people here are impatient.

Now the Dow is very close to the target the I announced in post number 7205.

I has taken 25 trading days to get to these levels.

These levels are achieved commensurate with time.

It takes time for levels to climb in this way, but the impatient expect these sort of results in minutes !

 

[Pat494]

Oil prices are dropping to give temporary impetus to the upside.

 

[LION63]

The problem is many people here are impatient.

Now the Dow is very close to the target the I announced in post number 7205.

I has taken 25 trading days to get to these levels.

These levels are achieved commensurate with time.

It takes time for levels to climb in this way, but the impatient expect these sort of results in minutes !

400 points over a period of 5 weeks or so is a very good return indeed, regardless of the value traded per point. Unfortunately, very few are prepared to wait for the icing to set before eating the cake.

 

[Pat494]

Pat494
I have no position on the Dow at the mo my thinking is that it will wait for the UK etc to close then pop n drop not too far mind 65 points will do before a turn

Fingers crossed DC !!

 

[RUDEBOY]

Impatient. Now there's a word.

 

[Pat494]

Not yet not yet ( for shorts ) as the actress said to the bishop

 

[SOCRATES]

It has taken approximately 6 more minutes than expected, not a bad calculation.

The Dow underlying is reported to me has hit 10,668 ( 20 under the ultimate target) this very minute, so the cake on the tray in the oven is whipped out sharpish on momentum ! + 429.5 points. Thank you very much, and TaTa, and now Teatime !

 

[dc2000]

Y'all ready for dis