Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

rav700 said:
Hi Racer,
Have not seen you on this board lately hope you are ok mate
So the Dow was down back at the 10535 level today...
After 3:00 it has just been range trading in a 30 point tunnel
I am still bearish overall on the dow...
Only time will tell .
Personally I am looking for the break of 10582 level again before going long or 10490 for going short...This is one of the weak months so just be careful.

Happy trading guys

rav700, I am okay thank you, been a bit pre-occupied and busy lately with things not Dow related.
Unfortunately they have to take priority.. sometimes ;)

As for the Dow, a complex H&S on dow and S&P formed over last couple of days (with double top onthe head) and sitting on necks right now. targets could be a lot lower but then again failure to follow through will get the bulls all excited again!
 
More pointless Franalysis

I'll be watching the Dow H&S for clues.

Success downside target around 80 points below neckline. Failure upside target unknown, but the top of the Naz sloping consolidation may help provide resistance, which could tally with c10640? The 2B reversal today looks ominous for the bulls, especially given the perfect 161.8% extension on Spoo/Dow. So I guess down unless the RH shoulder is taken out, in which case up. :)

Watch out for bear traps around 10500-510 mind.

Edit - Ah, I see Racer beat me to it again. :LOL:
 

Attachments

  • untitled.JPG
    untitled.JPG
    176.5 KB · Views: 186
?h&s dow

on p&f would imagine this could look pretty good potential for a reversal pattern as well, haven't got intraday p &f so if anyone could post a chart?

BTW They are pushing the futures after hours on thin trading,
 
Last edited:
? H&S on Dow/S&P

Hello,
We talked about this in the chat room yesterday and I read your comments below. The presumed H&S pattern has developed over the last couple of days.

Volume ema over this period is inconsistent with H&S pattern. I'm unable to upload the 5 min volume chart, sorry.
Wave count is equivocal ... basically this pattern could either be a 4th wave running corrective developing or as you say the beginnings of the next trip down. The top of the recent presumed wave 1 will be the decider. If respected, 4th wave count is valid ... I'll be watching 10511 VERY carefully!

Just saying there are alternative patterns alive and well. My money is on a 4th wave consolidation with next high around 10640. If so, we should see a 5th wave up in the next day or two. If not ... humble pie at the ready:)

Good luck today to all.

Regards,

Graham
 
Last edited:
From
http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp

"The index basically held ground after Friday's session, but appears to have formed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern at the current highs, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. This pattern is typically a highly reliable pattern that can really pack a punch. A downside break through the neck line (support) at 10,520 could make for weakness back toward the 10,450 zone, and possibly further."



That means it will now probably fail! :rolleyes:
 
Just to stick my neck out a bit I think it is another sideways day and one for scalpers. Those stops ( +/- 50 ) better watch out.
 
Pat494 said:
Just to stick my neck out a bit I think it is another sideways day and one for scalpers. Those stops ( +/- 50 ) better watch out.

Absolutely.. so far.. I guess everybody is waiting for the big action. :)
 
Support at the 10520 area has been ploughed through in the last 5 mins...

After quick scan 10470 then 10420 are the next support levels.

Racer, looks like your H&S could be spot on...
 
I don't know about you guys but I'm taking my profits here before it climbs back up again ?? :cheesy:
 
Slapshot said:
Support at the 10520 area has been ploughed through in the last 5 mins...

After quick scan 10470 then 10420 are the next support levels.

Racer, looks like your H&S could be spot on...




:cool:

Shall I mention rising wedges and another H&S?
 
swisher99 said:
Could anyone tell me where I can get live Dow charts for free?
Thanks in advance
Dave

Hi , yes you could try getting hold of meta- trader 4 ......Currencies / Gold / Dow / S+P etc ...live feed approx 2/3 second delay ...P M me once you have it and I can show you how to get Dow up on screen

Also very worthwhile is www.prorealtime.com , an excellent free workstation for E O D analysis.

Dow watchers ref post 7080 :devilish: all ties in nicely with current bearish view :arrowd:

CV
 
Last edited:
Tricky H&S today, but once both bears and bulls had endured a jolly good shakeout the true "failure failure" move ensued. Complex H&S have a good success rate so they say...


Dow...

(Racer will find the eventual target optimistic, but hey :LOL:)
 

Attachments

  • untitled.JPG
    untitled.JPG
    142.1 KB · Views: 185
Aaaaargh.

Racer said:
:cool:

Shall I mention rising wedges and another H&S?

Oh boy was I wrong! H&S despite volume to the contrary. Perhaps volume is usual but not essential. Anyone got comments?

I'm sticking with wave analysis and seeing this drop from 10610 to now being a higher degree (hourly chart) E wave down as "ABC". If so we're in the C wave at C4b.

Discipline here for me .... only add in more longs when / if C5 reaches 10350. Easier said than done. I've already made my most common mistake by going counter-trend in the C3 (3rd wave) extension.

I know this is anathema to many but I'll be adding in longs and carrying losses for now. I'll keep you posted. Good luck to you bears, this bull is feeling lonely but not dead "yet" :)

Graham
 
We're all DOOMED, Captain Mainwairing, DOOMED!
Just waiting for the bears to pounce.

Unhappy Moment Looms When Boomers Look for Income: Chet Currier
Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- A hungry multitude of investors is about to open the doors to a cupboard that is almost bare.

The throng we speak of is the U.S. baby-boom generation born after World War II. Its 75 million members will soon start hitting age 60, reaching the time of life when savers' and investors' minds start turning seriously to income.

The meager store that awaits them is the menu of current interest- and dividend-paying offerings in bonds, stocks and money- market securities.

``We're all growing older,'' says Margo Cook, who oversees $5.7 billion in bonds and other fixed-income investments at Bank of New York Co. ``There's just not a lot to buy.''

Bonds? Well, somebody who might have put together a retirement plan 10 or 15 years ago figuring on typical yields of about 8 percent now finds Treasury bonds and notes paying 4.3 percent to 4.6 percent.

After 15 months of increases in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve, the average seven-day yield of money market mutual funds has just recently edged up to 3.1 percent. Stock dividend yields average a measly 2 percent, as measured by the latest Bloomberg data for the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

If you mix those three major asset classes in equal proportions, you get a portfolio that throws off income at about a 3.2 percent clip. For perspective, a 3.2 percent annual return on a nest egg of, oh, $400,000 amounts to $12,800 a year, or $1,067 a month.

Tight Squeeze

That's not a lot from which to pay even the basics -- the rent, the food and medical bills. What's more, if the surveys that get published regularly are right, $400,000 is way beyond what many people have at their command.

In its annual ``retirement confidence'' survey for 2005, TIAA- CREF, the largest U.S. retirement fund, says, ``More than half of all workers report less than $50,000 in total savings and investments (excluding their home).'' More than half, likewise, say they are ``behind schedule when it comes to planning and saving for retirement.''

It's easy to shrug off this kind of research as self-serving when it comes from enterprises that want to drum up retirement business. No matter how you look at it, though, even people who might have believed they were saving adequate amounts may find themselves in trouble when they look to put their plan in effect using, say, an intermediate tax-exempt bond fund that yields 4 percent or less.

Complications

All this comes at a time when increasing numbers of retirees will be operating not with an old-style pension plan from their employers, but with money they must manage themselves in 401(k) and similar self-directed accounts.

Now, factor in everything you've heard about impending stresses on the Social Security system -- and then reflect on how little has been accomplished in the big debate this year over Social Security reform.

All this suggests that such standard market preoccupations as the level of stock prices or the direction of interest rates may be increasingly overshadowed in the years ahead by laments about the scarcity of good income-producing investments. The problem has already begun to make its presence felt.

The scramble for income in the markets has helped push bond yields lower even as short-term rates were rising, and has shrunk the premiums people receive for taking greater risk in vehicles such as junk bonds and emerging-markets bonds.

Struggle

``One story that has gone underreported in the popular press is just how challenging the past several years have been for those investing during their retirement,'' said analyst Christine Benz in a recent Web site commentary for mutual-fund researchers Morningstar Inc. ``Even those seniors who didn't make big portfolio mistakes have been quietly fighting an uphill battle.''

In politics, investors are often spoken of as wealthy people not deserving of much sympathy or help. And yes, baby boomers belong to one of the most prosperous generations ever to walk the earth. Even so, the TIAA-CREF data remind us that many baby boomers aren't fat cats by any means.

As a group, boomers are used to speaking up for what they want and getting it: Education in the 1960s, for starters, then jobs in the 1970s. They are world-class consumers of long standing.

They aren't at all the sort of people to fade quietly into retirement -- especially a retirement that the markets aren't ready to finance in the style they have come to expect.
 
Top