Racer said:
Oil crisis could spiral with uncomfortably parallels with the 1973 oil crisis !
Standard unleaded already 97p a litre in this area.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/03092005/325/iea-chief-warns-worldwide-energy-crisis.html
http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/72-74CrshTrak.gif
Interesting Dow commentary written just before Katrina hit New Orleans
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2005/0828.html
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2005/0828.html
Folks,
Thinking of opening an account in a DA firm - basically getting fed-up of doling out the
"spreads"
So... any recommendations? Initially I just plan to trade Indices, Equities, Futures (maybe
options later on)... Looking for a cheap and cheerful online broker. Should be easy for account opening for UK citizens and also easy for transferring money to/from.
I saw Ameritrade (35 free trades!) and IB - both look good to me. All seem to be based in the US(?). Saw Refco as well, but could not easily find pricing info on their website.
Would like to hear from (UK) folks on how they xfr money to/from these firms? Do these accept a BACS from UK Bank Accounts?
Any other names welcome!
Cheers,
karmit
Thinking of opening an account in a DA firm - basically getting fed-up of doling out the
"spreads"
So... any recommendations? Initially I just plan to trade Indices, Equities, Futures (maybe
options later on)... Looking for a cheap and cheerful online broker. Should be easy for account opening for UK citizens and also easy for transferring money to/from.
I saw Ameritrade (35 free trades!) and IB - both look good to me. All seem to be based in the US(?). Saw Refco as well, but could not easily find pricing info on their website.
Would like to hear from (UK) folks on how they xfr money to/from these firms? Do these accept a BACS from UK Bank Accounts?
Any other names welcome!
Cheers,
karmit
karmit said:Folks,
Thinking of opening an account in a DA firm - basically getting fed-up of doling out the
"spreads"
So... any recommendations? Initially I just plan to trade Indices, Equities, Futures (maybe
options later on)... Looking for a cheap and cheerful online broker. Should be easy for account opening for UK citizens and also easy for transferring money to/from.
I saw Ameritrade (35 free trades!) and IB - both look good to me. All seem to be based in the US(?). Saw Refco as well, but could not easily find pricing info on their website.
Would like to hear from (UK) folks on how they xfr money to/from these firms? Do these accept a BACS from UK Bank Accounts?
Any other names welcome!
Cheers,
karmit
Oops! sorry User! wanted to post this one on the Broker forum but got it on the DOW one.
mickandpete
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Hi guys my virgin post
Having traded FX in Frankfurt through 72-74 I have had experience of a non-reacting market.
After thefirst oil hike Doll/Mk had a mixed ride (you have to put this into context with the one way movement that had been going on for years)
Untill the 2nd?? friday which was in fact the eve of a junior FX meeting in a town near the Luxembourg border called Trie.
A junior FX meeting was a regional meeting not a meeting for juniors and every trader in Germany Paris Belgium Holland vacated their desks on friday morning to attend
We (my colleague and I) left frankfurt at about 1 pm and travelled in his new BMW at about 200 kph to Luxemborg.
The journey took about 3 hours, when we left Dmk was 2.28 on arriving it had gone to 2.46
Every dealer was absent and therefore unable to resist the dollar rise (which they would have) and so ended the one way traffic I seem to recall ended at 2.60 over the next month.
I post this only to illustrate that although a virgin I am not a novice.
It appears to me we have a similar situation here
The market has ignored the oil price rise and also the situation in New Orleans.
I watched incredulous last week as senior reporters from BBC ITV and Channel 4 brought news of a major catastrophy and the market ROSE
The reports from the US news channels appeared to come from junior reporters ( appologies if wrong) who were reporting a run of the mill storm. As I watched the job numbers on Bloomberg some scatty bird brain delighted at the numbers and said "Goodie we can all place our positions now in safety"
Along with the rest of the US the Bush administration were caught out by the scale of this event
Communications were non existant and therefore no news was good news.
This is the biggest disaster on US soil.EVER
It is my contention that the market was ignorant of the scale of events also and that we will see movement of the scale finally triggered by the Trie junior FX meeting
Having traded FX in Frankfurt through 72-74 I have had experience of a non-reacting market.
After thefirst oil hike Doll/Mk had a mixed ride (you have to put this into context with the one way movement that had been going on for years)
Untill the 2nd?? friday which was in fact the eve of a junior FX meeting in a town near the Luxembourg border called Trie.
A junior FX meeting was a regional meeting not a meeting for juniors and every trader in Germany Paris Belgium Holland vacated their desks on friday morning to attend
We (my colleague and I) left frankfurt at about 1 pm and travelled in his new BMW at about 200 kph to Luxemborg.
The journey took about 3 hours, when we left Dmk was 2.28 on arriving it had gone to 2.46
Every dealer was absent and therefore unable to resist the dollar rise (which they would have) and so ended the one way traffic I seem to recall ended at 2.60 over the next month.
I post this only to illustrate that although a virgin I am not a novice.
It appears to me we have a similar situation here
The market has ignored the oil price rise and also the situation in New Orleans.
I watched incredulous last week as senior reporters from BBC ITV and Channel 4 brought news of a major catastrophy and the market ROSE
The reports from the US news channels appeared to come from junior reporters ( appologies if wrong) who were reporting a run of the mill storm. As I watched the job numbers on Bloomberg some scatty bird brain delighted at the numbers and said "Goodie we can all place our positions now in safety"
Along with the rest of the US the Bush administration were caught out by the scale of this event
Communications were non existant and therefore no news was good news.
This is the biggest disaster on US soil.EVER
It is my contention that the market was ignorant of the scale of events also and that we will see movement of the scale finally triggered by the Trie junior FX meeting
Welcome MickandPete,
I'm fairly new here myself but I've been trading on and off since 1984. I'm principaly a FTSE man with the odd share thrown in for good measure.
The unabated rise in oil is interesting. And you are quite right in saying that the market hasn't reacted as one would expect and therefore we must sit back and ask why.
So why hasn't the rise in oil adversely affected the market as yet? To a small degree it has, and it will continue to do so. But we have look at the whole spectrum of what makes the markets rise / fall and by how much. At the moment companies are still reporting the last twelve months figures [which are good] and hence the market as we have it. Buyers of shares have a long term view and are confident that next years results will lend them a profit as oil has yet to show any real impact and they believe [naively ] that oil will soon fall without any long term effects.
But the astute amongst us fully understand the long term gravity of high priced oil; it will bring profits down; the market will slow and gradually fall, or at the very least, will stagnate.
The markets never fail to amaze me as to how they react to home and world happenings. I sometimes think, from time to time, they suffer from delayed effect syndrome; a hit on the head today will cause a loss of cohesion many weeks if not months from now.
Yours
UK
I'm fairly new here myself but I've been trading on and off since 1984. I'm principaly a FTSE man with the odd share thrown in for good measure.
The unabated rise in oil is interesting. And you are quite right in saying that the market hasn't reacted as one would expect and therefore we must sit back and ask why.
So why hasn't the rise in oil adversely affected the market as yet? To a small degree it has, and it will continue to do so. But we have look at the whole spectrum of what makes the markets rise / fall and by how much. At the moment companies are still reporting the last twelve months figures [which are good] and hence the market as we have it. Buyers of shares have a long term view and are confident that next years results will lend them a profit as oil has yet to show any real impact and they believe [naively ] that oil will soon fall without any long term effects.
But the astute amongst us fully understand the long term gravity of high priced oil; it will bring profits down; the market will slow and gradually fall, or at the very least, will stagnate.
The markets never fail to amaze me as to how they react to home and world happenings. I sometimes think, from time to time, they suffer from delayed effect syndrome; a hit on the head today will cause a loss of cohesion many weeks if not months from now.
Yours
UK
Mickandpete/UK hero:ukhero said:
I think both of you have made good points in relation to the potential consequences of this disaster.
The big hitters will be back tomorrow and it will be interesting to see what they make of it. As you rightly point out most US companies are still reporting good profits but these are based on past trading when interest rates and oil prices were lower. The market may wait until the Fed meeting in two weeks time to see if there is a pause in rate hikes. Most commentators think that there will be but nobody can be certain about this. Gasoline prices will remain high due to a shortage of refining capacity and one cannot discount other events that may also put a further squeeze on the production of crude.
However we are dealing with market sentiment here which does not necessarily reflect the reality of what is happening or likely tp happen. I think that this market will go down and that Katrina will be the catalyst. Question is 'when' since the market may remain irrational for a while and may even tick up to retest resistance at 10525 or even 10700 before it goes down.
On a rational basis we should be looking for a test of support at the key level of 10,000 between now and the end of October but the possiblity (and maybe subsequent actuality) of a pause in the interest rate hikes and the announcement of a massive reconstuction Fed programme (Bush has big fences to mend) could keep the bulls active for a longer period than most people think.
mickandpete
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Hi Kriesau and UK
Good to see some constructive debate here
One thought nagging at the back of my mind probably nonsense
With the Bush administration really up against it here,the political fallout will be enormous,the prospect of them throwing money at the problem is fairly certain but.....
Where does it come from,raise taxes??? I think not.They will print it,which will lead to ?????
Will Al allow Bush to ruin all the hard work or will he nip it in the bud by doing the reverse of what seems Market opinion.The more the market doesnt react the more this scenario would make sense.Can you remember what Volker did ,or didnt before his retirement,my memory serves me badly here.??????
Good to see some constructive debate here
One thought nagging at the back of my mind probably nonsense
With the Bush administration really up against it here,the political fallout will be enormous,the prospect of them throwing money at the problem is fairly certain but.....
Where does it come from,raise taxes??? I think not.They will print it,which will lead to ?????
Will Al allow Bush to ruin all the hard work or will he nip it in the bud by doing the reverse of what seems Market opinion.The more the market doesnt react the more this scenario would make sense.Can you remember what Volker did ,or didnt before his retirement,my memory serves me badly here.??????
Volker prioritised the fight against inflation by controlling money supply and raising interest rates. He actually took the Fed rate to 21.5% in the early 80's when inflation was running at 15%. This put the US into recession but he succeeded in bringing inflation under control and once he had achieved this he continuously reduced the Fed rate. Subsequently the Dow rallied a record 4.5% in one day and the post recession bull market began.mickandpete said:
Thereafter Reagan inaugurated the Republican strategy of stimulating the market by printing money and creating a substantial domestic budget deficit by cutting taxes (sound familiar huh).
If Volker was Fed Chairman today then I don't think that there would be a cat in hells chance of a pause in the Fed interest rate hikes this month. But he isn't and Greenspan is his own man. Will he pause or won't he ? Your guess is as good as mine but FWIW I think he will continue with a further 25 basis point rise this month.
mickandpete
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Only 25 ????? 50 either way could be possible
This is a whole new scenario
Unprecedented
Reportedly 1 1/2 million displaced
The estimated costs of rebuilding alone underestimated IMO
Hardly a ripple on the market
Almost the reverse of 9/11 upon which the market is placing its estimate of Fed reaction
All against the backdrop of oil at price levels undreamt of previously /yield curve inverting
Something somewhere is going to break
What is Bird Brain going to make of this months job numbers or any economic data over the next 3 months?
Wow this is a real conumdrum
Scary or what???
This is a whole new scenario
Unprecedented
Reportedly 1 1/2 million displaced
The estimated costs of rebuilding alone underestimated IMO
Hardly a ripple on the market
Almost the reverse of 9/11 upon which the market is placing its estimate of Fed reaction
All against the backdrop of oil at price levels undreamt of previously /yield curve inverting
Something somewhere is going to break
What is Bird Brain going to make of this months job numbers or any economic data over the next 3 months?
Wow this is a real conumdrum
Scary or what???
fxmarkets
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hmm they dont see new orleans as any major.. economic setback.. a pain in the ars* maybe but nothing that will bring the house tumbling down.. new york different major finance hub. major panic. new orleans ?? good food maybe. you almost sense that business looks at new orleans raises an eyebrow and thinks............. nothing much to worry about, just a big mop up. shame really.
mickandpete
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Just seen BBC 10 o/clock news
Bush in area"We will not rest till all lives are saved"
BBC correspondant ventures in boat into New Orleans suburbs ,has to rescue 5 kids with mother dead in house,,grateful 75 year old couple accept water from him have none of their own,this is crazy. A week after and the worlds super power cant save its own.Either our reporters are slanting their reports,dont think so,or US is in for a BIG shock .U.S.A. U.S.A. U.S.A.
Bush in area"We will not rest till all lives are saved"
BBC correspondant ventures in boat into New Orleans suburbs ,has to rescue 5 kids with mother dead in house,,grateful 75 year old couple accept water from him have none of their own,this is crazy. A week after and the worlds super power cant save its own.Either our reporters are slanting their reports,dont think so,or US is in for a BIG shock .U.S.A. U.S.A. U.S.A.
fxmarkets
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Hi mate, ive been following it on bloomberg a bit and they dont view it as a v.major economic centre for generating revenue, that perhaps whilst the personal tradegy is always tragic, at this stage no alarm bells being rung about loss of revenue from there ,I guess though how much will it cost over time to restore ? too early to say as always.
Still "feel" we wont see any new top in the dow. below 10400 weak 10600 hopeful upside but?? personal opinion/belief/feeling and ive given up trading them in a market I see the dow going nowhere upside from here.... any dow followers got a long term chart going back to 1000 ish levels ? that trend line is up for a test guessing from memory in next 1/3 years(I could be a couple years off, just remember eyeballing it about 12 months back) .... 70 year trendline ......... ooerrrrrrrr mrs.
Still "feel" we wont see any new top in the dow. below 10400 weak 10600 hopeful upside but?? personal opinion/belief/feeling and ive given up trading them in a market
I see the dow going nowhere upside from here.... any dow followers got a long term chart going back to 1000 ish levels ? that trend line is up for a test guessing from memory in next 1/3 years(I could be a couple years off, just remember eyeballing it about 12 months back) .... 70 year trendline ......... ooerrrrrrrr mrs.
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The PPT won't let it go down this time without a fight !Racer said:
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/pressrelease/TheVisibleHand.pdf
Racer
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I read a very cynical website recently on hurricane management.. not because I was looking for it.. but it said that there are various reasons why there has been the delay.. knock down cheap prices for interested parties, but I make no comment on that, you have to take propaganda and anti-propaganda in the same light and judge both on their arguments.
As a bystander I have been amazed.
I looked at a post here on this thread and thought before the hurricane hit.. this is a big event that is going to cause major damage.. I did the research and even found out where places were in the US that I didn't know existed before now. I told my family that this is a major disaster about to happen...
I live in the UK in Devon in the middle of nowhere with no advisors to tell me what to do or think and I knew this from weather details and other things I researched.
Why, if I could do this and knew this, did the US government not know this and do something?? They had an awful lot of advance warning :!:
As a bystander I have been amazed.
I looked at a post here on this thread and thought before the hurricane hit.. this is a big event that is going to cause major damage.. I did the research and even found out where places were in the US that I didn't know existed before now. I told my family that this is a major disaster about to happen...
I live in the UK in Devon in the middle of nowhere with no advisors to tell me what to do or think and I knew this from weather details and other things I researched.
Why, if I could do this and knew this, did the US government not know this and do something?? They had an awful lot of advance warning :!:
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