Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[roguetrader]

opportunity for a ~30 point long today after open?

Anythings possible karmit, whilst there is no disputing that yesterdays action was very bearish it requires confirmation, in the early days of this rally we had violent swings such as this, so it is dangerous to get assumptive. A lot of people will panic here to get on the short side for fear of missing the big move, that makes the move vulnerable.
Trading for a living is a bit like test cricket, (the multi-day matches), its about staying in and building an innings. That may mean taking ones and twos while others are swinging for the boundaries, but the desirable qualities of a test batsman and trader alike are endurance and longevity.
The bears have thrown down the gauntlet, lets see if the bulls have a response, It would have been better to have this setup earlier in the week, but you have to play the hand your dealt I suppose.

 

[peterpr]

Anythings possible karmit, .... <snip>.

Two solid useful posts there RT (5082 & 5084). Can't really add much. Just to remind that month/quarter end is approaching. Unless the bears stay in control and run with it, lower volume will support mark-ups to window dress the period end.

I do think we are in for a serious run down to test the 10000 level again over the next few weeks though. But It wouldn't surprise me to see another narrow range consolidation day after a move like that. Footsie looks fairly sanguine about it - .6% off at the open and more or less static with the YM futures currently neutral at 10,440.

 

[Racer]

Well it certainly was interesting.

An eventful day to say the least, the charts may have looked bullish before today, but the days action certainly took the shine off that somewhat. One of the problems with breakouts on a day like quad witching is that the days volume is skewed by the event, so it is very difficult to see how much participation there has been. I read quite a few articles over the weekend talking about the great volume that accompanied the breakout, but large volume is normal for quarterly expiry.

Island reversals have high vols.. and that is what I was looking for when I posted about the island of bulls a few days ago

 

[Racer]

Racer, yeah! it felt like the market was out to get me today! But to sit there watching the trade go against u is just plain stupid! I accept this and no intention of letting history repeat on this this one!

My head is handed back to me! right now am analysing and re-analysing my thoughts and fears at the time of trade and looking to trade with a clear head!

I do find the experience of trading very very spiritual....get to learn about oneself and behaviour patterns with a hard knock!
so i'm off to meditate and perhaps hibernate for an hour or two! Cheers for the encourgement to all who post on here,love being part of the community;-)

Sometimes it is very hard to stay detached when things are going wrong, your body physiology affects your thoughts and actions so you think differently to the normal stress free way

 

[JillyB]

Sometimes it is very hard to stay detached when things are going wrong, your body physiology affects your thoughts and actions so you think differently to the normal stress free way

Sometimes it's also hard to stay detached when things are going right as well! How many of us have got out of a trade too early, instead of letting the profits run?

Yesterday was a classic example - profit was made but nowhere near what was possible, because I panicked. Rather be safe and take the money - stress is the factor that made me do it. Logic went out of the window. IF I had checked the longer time frame charts, THEN i would have seen there was more to come. AHH well. Live and learn.

 

[Racer]

Durable Goods Orders: May Apr Consensus:
Total Orders: 5.5% 1.4%r +1.4%
Ex-Transportation: -0.2% -0.7%r Actual:
Ex-Defense 5.3% 2.0%r +5.5%

 

[bakula]

I have just bought a book called "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. Recommended by the well respected John Bartlett.....The opening line is " Master the market with confidence,discipline and a winning attitude".....can't wait to get started reading it!......learning about oneself etc....

I fell better today, sun is still shining and been for an early morning swim....so ready to trade....again!

 

[FetteredChinos]

Sometimes it's also hard to stay detached when things are going right as well! How many of us have got out of a trade too early, instead of letting the profits run?

Yesterday was a classic example - profit was made but nowhere near what was possible, because I panicked. Rather be safe and take the money - stress is the factor that made me do it. Logic went out of the window. IF I had checked the longer time frame charts, THEN i would have seen there was more to come. AHH well. Live and learn.

Jilly, you may want to read some of Larry William's books (there are a few pdf's flying around the net somewhere). He did some analysis, and it revealed that the big money to be made when trend following intraday are on the days when it opens at the low and closes at the high and vice versa. essentially, on days when it is really moving, holding to the close is usually for the best.

Just thought i would pop in to see how you lot were all doing. im still short from 10565 many moons ago. im now only trying to take 1 big trade per MONTH on the dow. Targeting approx 10,050 for this down move at the moment.

good trading all, and its nice to see the bears bite back for once.

FC

 

[JillyB]

Jilly, you may want to read some of Larry William's books (there are a few pdf's flying around the net somewhere). He did some analysis, and it revealed that the big money to be made when trend following intraday are on the days when it opens at the low and closes at the high and vice versa. essentially, on days when it is really moving, holding to the close is usually for the best.

Just thought i would pop in to see how you lot were all doing. im still short from 10565 many moons ago. im now only trying to take 1 big trade per MONTH on the dow. Targeting approx 10,050 for this down move at the moment.

good trading all, and its nice to see the bears bite back for once.

FC

Thanks FC, I'll have a hunt around on the web and see what I can find.

Not sure that you will hit your Dow target of 10,050, though. I can see 10,380 ish being the near term line of support from the open and closes around the beginning of May. If this is broken then I can see it bouncing around the 10,250 - 260 mark. Personally I would feel safer taking profits at this level, rather than waiting for it to go lower. However that may be just relevant to my last post about taking profits too early! :cheesy:

 

[FetteredChinos]

no probs.. remember my timescale for trading is similar to User's , in that we hold positions for days/weeks if conditions are still condusive.

good luck everybody

 

[User]

no probs.. remember my timescale for trading is similar to User's , in that we hold positions for days/weeks if conditions are still condusive.

and trust me b***s of steel are needed........

 

[JillyB]

no probs.. remember my timescale for trading is similar to User's , in that we hold positions for days/weeks if conditions are still condusive.

good luck everybody

Yes I realise you trade different timescales to me and I was looking at the daily chart of the Dow with trend line/lines of support & resistance over the past year as indicators.

Based on this I would still be happier with the 10,250 area as support, but we shall wait and see. Good trading. Will look in on your FTSE trades later - a better day for you on that today, I think.

 

[roguetrader]

Early internals bearish but not overly so at the moment, bears may be waiting to see if the bulls have anything to offer

 

[Racer]

and trust me b***s of steel are needed........

LOL yes or none at all to worry about

 

[Racer]

Dow flew through the 200, 100 mas yesterday, now will it go through the 50 today (around 10378) or bounce? So far it has held

 

[roguetrader]

Internals continuing to deteriorate, so far it's a no show for the bulls

 

[roguetrader]

Bit like wading a river here, you can't see the bottom and you'r always aware you could step into a dirty great hole and go in over your head at any minute

 

[User]

Horrible start.......

Lets see how it works out as we have just started the session yet....

Shorts looking good......

Still holding.....

If we get another bad decline then that will seriously spook the markets with 10000 being an easy target....

Obviously instituitional selling is more powerful then large traders and small speculators.......
So if they want the market to go down then no one can really stop them.....yesterday was proof....

Large traders and small money couldn't do much on the fakeout breakout without them and now we have them scratching their heads....

Support levels are looking a little fragile for the moment.....

 

[Minder]

Seems to be finding support in this range - 10375 to 10400.

Are the Internals still bearish ?

 

[User]

Next 15min candle is important......A break of 10364 could spark a further decline (solid) otherwise holding at this level could well send us above 10400...........