roguetrader
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Odd sort of day. My Total volumes look to be coming in at a slight decline over Fridays level, although I will have to confirm NYSE vol at the end of trading as there seems to be some sort of descrepancy.
Internals aremodestly bulish on the NYSE, and closer to neutral on the Nasdaq.
Internals aremodestly bulish on the NYSE, and closer to neutral on the Nasdaq.
peterpr
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Not sure where you get that from. Think about it - The interests of options writers are best served when theircontracts expire worthless. At what prices were the bulk of Friday's expiring options written? - why in precisely the range you mention. In other words, their interests - on aggregate - will be best served by the market staying where it is. They can't dictate direction, but they probably have a damn sight more influence on it than you or I. That suggests that it is rather more likely we will see increased volatility, but a close within that range.kriesau said:
roguetrader
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rrtech said:
Ok thanx rrtech, the INDU traded about 198 million shares in the entire day and volume looks fairly evenly destributed, so the spikes you saw of 40 million+ are more than likely data error
roguetrader
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rrtech said:
"Triple witching" now known as quadruple witching is a quarterly event when index futures, Index options, stock options, and now stock futures expire al at once
User
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Hi all,
The Dow as we all know is travelling in a tight range. But this failure to capitalise further on the intra-day gains is not generally a good sign. As we see in yesterdays session we hit highs of around 10580-90 but ended the day at 10522 and ended the day with a small gain.....
The positives are that we still closed above 10500 however the negative aspect is that we were much higher....Institutional selling is now occurring......
A test of 10500 should be seen today and failure of support from this level may well take us to 10450-20.
I would believe that the tight range we have been seeing should come to an end fairly soon. A large move could be seen. That is the expectation anyway.....
Short positions should be taken. At the worst we will see a move higher than 10600 but I would be highly sceptical in thinking that the market wants to see 11,000 should we cross 10600. It could be a fake break-out one which could then prompt a massive down move of 500-700 points. Please do not get comfortable in this range as we haven't really been seeing any turbulence lately.........its going to get messy though......very messy on the downside and not too much hope on the upside......
Good luck which ever direction you take.......
The Dow as we all know is travelling in a tight range. But this failure to capitalise further on the intra-day gains is not generally a good sign. As we see in yesterdays session we hit highs of around 10580-90 but ended the day at 10522 and ended the day with a small gain.....
The positives are that we still closed above 10500 however the negative aspect is that we were much higher....Institutional selling is now occurring......
A test of 10500 should be seen today and failure of support from this level may well take us to 10450-20.
I would believe that the tight range we have been seeing should come to an end fairly soon. A large move could be seen. That is the expectation anyway.....
Short positions should be taken. At the worst we will see a move higher than 10600 but I would be highly sceptical in thinking that the market wants to see 11,000 should we cross 10600. It could be a fake break-out one which could then prompt a massive down move of 500-700 points. Please do not get comfortable in this range as we haven't really been seeing any turbulence lately.........its going to get messy though......very messy on the downside and not too much hope on the upside......
Good luck which ever direction you take.......
JillyB
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Just been reading the analysis on Trader Tom, which is more for a bullish side breakout from the current consolidation. It indicates highs of 11000 around mid July, with the index then falling back after this date.
Interesting reading - the post is dated 13th June.
http://www.tradertom.com/analysis.htm
Interesting reading - the post is dated 13th June.
http://www.tradertom.com/analysis.htm
roguetrader
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JillyB said:
Can't say I really see that in his article Jilly, any article opening with the phrase............
Isn't what I'd call bullish, from there on he basically (with no crtisim intended) goes on to hedge his bets.
I would agree however that the tone of his position seems to have changed as he was pretty much by my interpretation calling a top a week or so ago, now he is far more flexible towards a move up.
From my own perspective, I still, as previously said believe the risk is to the upside The prior trend was up, consolidation has been at or near the highs, allbeit within a decent range. The Nasdaq is simply exhibiting correctional behaviour,, and even with that has not pulled back to the corrective level I would have expected, it actually may correct more sideways which would be extremely bullish.
The only reservations I am developing at the moment is that I don't like the early strength and later selloffs , and the gradual shift to bullish sentiment. So as an opposite to Tom I find myself moving from fairly bullish, to a little less bullish than before.
JillyB
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Point taken. My own analysis still makes me favour a breakout on the upside of the trend, but time will tell on this one. I have to say that the longer the consolidation continues the more uncertain of this I become.
As my own preference for trading the Dow is intraday - scalping if you like - but holding a position for 20 -40 minutes, not just a few minutes, the current trend hasn't affected me much. In fact it's been quite a profitable couple of weeks, with the index bouncing off 10450 and getting held back at 10560.
Decision time will come when it breaks out of the current trend and heads in a definite direction. Do I hold the position overnight or not? Decisions, decisions...
As my own preference for trading the Dow is intraday - scalping if you like - but holding a position for 20 -40 minutes, not just a few minutes, the current trend hasn't affected me much. In fact it's been quite a profitable couple of weeks, with the index bouncing off 10450 and getting held back at 10560.
Decision time will come when it breaks out of the current trend and heads in a definite direction. Do I hold the position overnight or not? Decisions, decisions...
JillyB said:
Hi JillyB, Have a look at the Dow E O D close price ( forget about intraday noise ) and you will see the true range it is in, also from Wed 18th May ( 10,464 ) to last nights close Monday 13th June (10,522 ) look at lower lows and higher highs and you will see the direction the Dow is trying to go in make your own analysis as it's your money you are trading.
Best Regards
roguetrader
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Looking at OEX open interest, the current market level seems best suited for expiration, though that is difficult to be sure, ther are quite a lot of both puts and calls sitting just outside the money.
