Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[kriesau]

As you are disrespectful and naughty, we are not telling you why or how, so there !

You were all given ample warning in advance, however.

And, furthermore, if you still do not believe that all this mischief is planned in advance,
now you had better believe it, because it is true as you can see with your own eyes.

More pompous garbage from the Legenday Moron.

The markets are extremely volatile and have been for the past couple of weeks. Your 'mischief' reference consequently means nothing and is not representative of any insight into the price action whatsoever. You have not made any prediction of market direction up or down today so your pretence at having got it right is truly absurd.

As usual you make some enigmatic and oblique statement that means nothing and then you try and make out that you were subsequently right about the price action. You better get Matron to up your medication today Napoleen otherwise the Duke of Wellington might turn up and beat you at Gin Rummy.

 

[kriesau]

Many thanks for your reply, Soc. Why is there a cap at 4269 ?

Regards,

DAX closed at 4276 with the Cash future at 4280. It's 'cap' fell off !

 

[kriesau]

Refer to my previous post number 3922. you see how the weakness has not been totally resolved and how the price has drifted down considerably. However it appears that the fall has been arrested (S.V.) so it can at least meander along the original course it was following.
4975 + however not expected....

Looks like you got your long away at 4870 FC. Good 26 pt jump to close at 4886.50 in the last hour despite '4875 not expected'.

Cash future now at 4896 !

 

[RUDEBOY]

Anyway, who still believes this markets goin to touch or go through 11k before 05 is out? Maybe the last few weeks has been the turning point? 10k, IMHO, may not be touched again for a while, have the bears lost thier grip for a while? I shouldnt really post stuff like this at the moment, i'll jinx all you bulls?

 

[FetteredChinos]

Anyway, who still believes this markets goin to touch or go through 11k before 05 is out? Maybe the last few weeks has been the turning point? 10k, IMHO, may not be touched again for a while, have the bears lost thier grip for a while? I shouldnt really post stuff like this at the moment, i'll jinx all you bulls?

no go for it, im as bearish as the next man..

i reckon we will see something close to a a double top at 11,000-10,900 and then down for the rest of the year and early into next year.. possible 9500, then if that goes, 8500 targets.

either of those levels could prove to be an opportunity for a long of a lifetime...

but, if 11,000 goes, and then the retest is successful, i think we can all be happy that the bear has gone for the intermediate term..

 

[kriesau]

Ian - thanks - good luck.

 

[Bluewave]

Who pulled the plug out? My Dow comp guess of 10,265 looking well dodgy now, hehe.

 

[rrtech]

If there were no fears about hedge funds the Dow would be a long way up today, wouldn't it? Because surely the low oil price would outweigh the dip in consumer confidence. Kriesau and Bluewave do you think we will close below 10200?

 

[Bluewave]

Kriesau and Bluewave do you think we will close below 10200?

Hi lurker I reckon yes if those 2 recent bounces off 200 are to be trusted. But by how much above I can't guess.

Edit: I should add that volume has dropped in last 30 mins though.. typical of Fridays!

 

[kriesau]

If there were no fears about hedge funds the Dow would be a long way up today, wouldn't it? Because surely the low oil price would outweigh the dip in consumer confidence. Kriesau and Bluewave do you think we will close below 10200?

Well thats the 100 pt question. I'm don't pretend to be a guru so I wouldn't either demean myself or insult you my pretending to be one. I can only tell you how I see it.

Clearly Hedge Funds are a factor in current volatility and the inconsistencies within the market. I'm bearish primarily due to the unstable economic situation in the US with the twin deficits, an asset bubble, almost zero savings, weak dollar, creeping inflation, George Bush, etc etc. However as more experienced traders like FC, User, Racer etc have said they are bearish too except that some of them believe that the market might rally back up to 10700 - 11,000 first and then come down to below 10,000. They maybe right !

As far as today is concerned 10200 is clearly pivotal. It's been down to 160 and recovered to 230 and it's been trading in that range all morning. The Dow is off 200 pts from its Monday high so there is plenty of scope for retracement, particularly after two 100 pt falls this week.

However it's been making lower lows (as has the SPX) which is clearly bearish. The SPX is sluggish at + 0.1% while the COMPX is up 1.0% and the techs on the N100 are up 1.3% and 3.2% on the SOX. Bond rates are slipping but Fed rates are rising - it's quite a crazy market at the moment.

Bottom line is that today I would be reluctant to make any prediction. I have an open short at 10180, which is 20 pts underwater at the moment and another short sitting at 10120. I wouldn't bet that the latter is triggered today. It would be worth watching the Dow between 14.00 - 14.30EST, which is often a pivotal moment and again in the last hour. If I was a betting man (ho ho ho) then I might go for a continuation of consolidation in the 10180 - 10220 range today but frankly, it is so unpredictable, I wouldn't put money on that either.

If they are still around FC or User might give you a more knowledgable take on the current situation than I can.

 

[Bigbusiness]

The volatility is still low when compared to a few years ago. I think the markets just like to have a bit of a change now and then. We have been through a couple of dull years when the markets have been relatively calm and perhaps now there is going to be a period when we will see more action.

 

[RUDEBOY]

Funny you should say that BB, i got all nostalgic before and looked at 5 and 10 year charts, 2002-03 was certainly a bit more dynamic. 7k, FC are we goin there? You never know?

 

[RUDEBOY]

In the near future cant see it taking out 10k by much, if it does.

 

[RUDEBOY]

But, that depends on buying interest!

 

[Bluewave]

Arrgh, my chart data goes down and when it comes back the Dow is at 10,160. Typical!! So much for the 10,200 floor then.......

 

[Bigbusiness]

I gave up trying to predict longer term moves. My record was dreadful and it wasn't helping my short term trading. Now I just think about what is going to happen today and possibly the next day. I see it a bit like the weather forecast, the longer in the future I try to predict, the less accurate I get.

 

[Racer]

Well that was a nice bit of non trading day today.. just went out for the afternoon with a big short on the Dow and not worried at all.. and now back to see what has happened.. ah very nice

 

[neil]

Evening Trades

I gave up trying to predict longer term moves. My record was dreadful and it wasn't helping my short term trading. Now I just think about what is going to happen today and possibly the next day. I see it a bit like the weather forecast, the longer in the future I try to predict, the less accurate I get.

Hope no one minds: I am looking at evening trades. If one is patient it seems evening trades could be fruitful. 5 minute chart.

 

[Bluewave]

Well that was a nice bit of non trading day today.. just went out for the afternoon with a big short on the Dow and not worried at all.. and now back to see what has happened.. ah very nice

Often the best way with this trading melarky: set and forget (with loose stop).

 

[RUDEBOY]

To be honest BB i'm starting to think the same. Here's one though, lets say the Dow is at a critical point at the mo( for upside movement), if it can make gains in the next week say, with little support, would you agree that downside vol has taken the lead and will be more effective( bears have lost the hold)?