senyorqueso
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Really?
roguetrader
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senyorqueso said:
Tight stops are good if your market timing and entries are very precise. With a 4 point spread there would be very little room for error. I am assuming that by 10 point stop you are talking of only risking 10 points on your trade, When you enter, the nearest bid to get you out will be 4 points away, that means that if the trade backs up only 6 points your stop is hit.
senyorqueso said:
It's your call but I think that 10 pt Stops (which are 6 pt stops after the spread) are far too tight on the Dow. If you are that tight you will be stopped out most of the time unless you get lucky and the market moves immediately in your favour by around 20/30 pts.
I think the minimum stop on a Dow daytrade is 24 pts to give you 20 pts after the spread. I rarely use less than 50 and employ a trailing stop to move with the market. You would be better off reducing your stake and taking a wider stop if you are that concerned about limiting your downside.
senyorqueso
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It's just that from my analysis of the paper trades and real (but small) SB trades I've been doing over the last few weeks with larger stops (20-30pts), nearly all the the big winners have all moved in my favour right from the start, and the losers would of course have been smaller losers if I'd used a 10pt stop (allowing 6 pts movement against the trade). Still it's only a small number of trades - about 2 a day on average - so maybe this would look quite different over a longer period with a larger sample of trades.
Another point is that when the trade setups are particular patterns such as the break up from an ascending triangle, it doesn't seem to make much sense to have a stop at a distance where the pattern has completely broken down, as the reason for being in the trade has gone way before the stop gets hit.
Still, I'm just arsing about trying to get a feel for it all at the moment, so I'm grateful for all comments/advice. Keep them coming...
SQ
Another point is that when the trade setups are particular patterns such as the break up from an ascending triangle, it doesn't seem to make much sense to have a stop at a distance where the pattern has completely broken down, as the reason for being in the trade has gone way before the stop gets hit.
Still, I'm just arsing about trying to get a feel for it all at the moment, so I'm grateful for all comments/advice. Keep them coming...
SQ
senyorqueso
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Racer - don't know if I'm understanding your numbers properly - is that 166 trades?
Kriesau - I was originally trying larger stops of ~50pts, but decided against this as it seems hard to justify from a risk/reward point of view for an intra day trade. Does this work ok for you? You must need pretty big wins to overcome the losses, which must be hard to achieve in one session. Are you managing to get consistent profits this way with spreadbets?
Kriesau - I was originally trying larger stops of ~50pts, but decided against this as it seems hard to justify from a risk/reward point of view for an intra day trade. Does this work ok for you? You must need pretty big wins to overcome the losses, which must be hard to achieve in one session. Are you managing to get consistent profits this way with spreadbets?
AP
Dow Closes Down 103 on Hedge Fund Rumors
Tuesday May 10, 9:04 pm ET
By Michael J. Martinez, AP Business Writer
Dow Closes Down 103, Nasdaq Drops 17 on Hedge Fund Rumors, Rising Crude Oil Prices
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks tumbled Tuesday as rising crude oil prices prompted Delta Air Lines Inc. to warn of possible bankruptcy and Wall Street's rumor mill chewed over the possibility of hedge fund losses due to steep investments in troubled General Motors Corp. The Dow Jones industrial average shed more than 100 points.
Delta's news led many investors to wonder whether other companies may fall victim to high energy costs, and added to Wall Street's now-chronic concerns that high oil prices may lead to an economic slowdown, inflation, or a worst-case combination of both.
"A lot of this downturn today coincided with Delta's announcement and the fact that crude was above $52 per barrel," said Brian Williamson, an equity trader at The Boston Company Asset Management. "That's got to make you concerned about who's next as far as companies go and whether this will really hit consumer spending."
In addition, analysts speculated that several global hedge funds had suffered losses from holdings in General Motors' stock and its bonds -- downgraded to "junk" status last week. The rumors were unsubstantiated, but were enough to prompt edgy investors to sell.
The Dow fell 103.23, or 0.99 percent, to 10,281.11.
Broader stock indicators also fell sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 12.62, or 1.07 percent, at 1,166.22, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 16.90, or 0.85 percent, to 1,962.77.
The bond market rallied as stocks dropped, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note skidding to 4.21 percent, down from 4.28 percent late Monday. The dollar was mostly lower against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.
Hedge funds -- which invest in a wide variety of stocks, bonds and derivatives to maximize returns and are considered riskier than typical stock or mutual fund investments -- were said to have been hit hard following the debt downgrades, which eroded the value of GM's bonds, and the significant investment in GM by billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp.
"Obviously GM's stock got a boost last week on the Tracinda offer, then the bonds got crushed by downgrades, so they would've gotten hurt on both sides of that trade," said Todd Clark, head of listed equity trading at Wells Fargo Securities. "Against the backdrop of crude trading higher ... it's a little unsettling."
Despite the hedge fund furor, GM's stock stayed afloat, rising 20 cents to $31.53.
Crude prices were volatile ahead of Wednesday's government energy inventory report, which often moves crude prices substantially. After rising as high as $53.10, a barrel of light crude for June delivery settled at $52.07, up 4 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. While well off their $58-per-barrel highs, the consistently high prices for oil have exacerbated Wall Street's worries about the economy.
Delta tumbled 10 percent, or 33 cents, to $2.97, after the airline warned it will record substantial losses for the rest of the year, due in great part to high jet fuel prices. It said it may need to file for bankruptcy if its cash reserves fall too low or creditors call in the airline's debts.
In the financial sector, Morgan Stanley fell $1.33 to $49.42 as Chief Executive Phil Purcell told an investor conference the Discover card spinoff would hurt revenues, and that the second quarter was shaping up to be difficult. Morgan Stanley executives also said more employee departures could be forthcoming, but that the company had a deep pool of talent.
Cisco Systems was unchanged at $18.21 ahead of its earnings report, which was released after the close. Cisco beat Wall Street earnings forecasts by a penny per share and had strong revenue growth. The stock added 16 cents to $18.37 in after-hours electronic trading.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the problems plaguing insurer and Dow component American International Group Inc. may have involved more people than just the two recently departed executives, including former Chairman Maurice "Hank" Greenberg. AIG lost $1.31 to $53.27 on the news.
Supermarket operator Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. Inc. said it would undergo a major restructuring, including dropping its operations in Ohio and Michigan and the possible sale of a Canadian division. The company's shares surged 23.4 percent, or $4.28, to $22.43.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 5 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 1.95 billion shares, compared with 1.88 billion on Monday.
Dow Closes Down 103 on Hedge Fund Rumors
Tuesday May 10, 9:04 pm ET
By Michael J. Martinez, AP Business Writer
Dow Closes Down 103, Nasdaq Drops 17 on Hedge Fund Rumors, Rising Crude Oil Prices
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks tumbled Tuesday as rising crude oil prices prompted Delta Air Lines Inc. to warn of possible bankruptcy and Wall Street's rumor mill chewed over the possibility of hedge fund losses due to steep investments in troubled General Motors Corp. The Dow Jones industrial average shed more than 100 points.
Delta's news led many investors to wonder whether other companies may fall victim to high energy costs, and added to Wall Street's now-chronic concerns that high oil prices may lead to an economic slowdown, inflation, or a worst-case combination of both.
"A lot of this downturn today coincided with Delta's announcement and the fact that crude was above $52 per barrel," said Brian Williamson, an equity trader at The Boston Company Asset Management. "That's got to make you concerned about who's next as far as companies go and whether this will really hit consumer spending."
In addition, analysts speculated that several global hedge funds had suffered losses from holdings in General Motors' stock and its bonds -- downgraded to "junk" status last week. The rumors were unsubstantiated, but were enough to prompt edgy investors to sell.
The Dow fell 103.23, or 0.99 percent, to 10,281.11.
Broader stock indicators also fell sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 12.62, or 1.07 percent, at 1,166.22, and the Nasdaq composite index lost 16.90, or 0.85 percent, to 1,962.77.
The bond market rallied as stocks dropped, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note skidding to 4.21 percent, down from 4.28 percent late Monday. The dollar was mostly lower against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.
Hedge funds -- which invest in a wide variety of stocks, bonds and derivatives to maximize returns and are considered riskier than typical stock or mutual fund investments -- were said to have been hit hard following the debt downgrades, which eroded the value of GM's bonds, and the significant investment in GM by billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp.
"Obviously GM's stock got a boost last week on the Tracinda offer, then the bonds got crushed by downgrades, so they would've gotten hurt on both sides of that trade," said Todd Clark, head of listed equity trading at Wells Fargo Securities. "Against the backdrop of crude trading higher ... it's a little unsettling."
Despite the hedge fund furor, GM's stock stayed afloat, rising 20 cents to $31.53.
Crude prices were volatile ahead of Wednesday's government energy inventory report, which often moves crude prices substantially. After rising as high as $53.10, a barrel of light crude for June delivery settled at $52.07, up 4 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. While well off their $58-per-barrel highs, the consistently high prices for oil have exacerbated Wall Street's worries about the economy.
Delta tumbled 10 percent, or 33 cents, to $2.97, after the airline warned it will record substantial losses for the rest of the year, due in great part to high jet fuel prices. It said it may need to file for bankruptcy if its cash reserves fall too low or creditors call in the airline's debts.
In the financial sector, Morgan Stanley fell $1.33 to $49.42 as Chief Executive Phil Purcell told an investor conference the Discover card spinoff would hurt revenues, and that the second quarter was shaping up to be difficult. Morgan Stanley executives also said more employee departures could be forthcoming, but that the company had a deep pool of talent.
Cisco Systems was unchanged at $18.21 ahead of its earnings report, which was released after the close. Cisco beat Wall Street earnings forecasts by a penny per share and had strong revenue growth. The stock added 16 cents to $18.37 in after-hours electronic trading.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the problems plaguing insurer and Dow component American International Group Inc. may have involved more people than just the two recently departed executives, including former Chairman Maurice "Hank" Greenberg. AIG lost $1.31 to $53.27 on the news.
Supermarket operator Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. Inc. said it would undergo a major restructuring, including dropping its operations in Ohio and Michigan and the possible sale of a Canadian division. The company's shares surged 23.4 percent, or $4.28, to $22.43.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 5 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 1.95 billion shares, compared with 1.88 billion on Monday.
FetteredChinos
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racer you little scalping demon! . you are letting the side down!! i thought we were all swingers here? 
nice to see the 10270-10250 region held..
escaped my short from last week for +30 (7 wins on the trot now. shabba)
now long from an average price of 10,260..
target for this is back into the 10360s either today or early tomorrow.
nice to see the 10270-10250 region held..
escaped my short from last week for +30 (7 wins on the trot now. shabba)
now long from an average price of 10,260..
target for this is back into the 10360s either today or early tomorrow.
FetteredChinos
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nah.,. they just knew i was long...
FetteredChinos
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what time is Big Uncle Walt due to report today? is it 3pm?
User
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Well it keeps my longs and the long scenario alive....for the while anyway
Added at 10285...
Now the question is what will happen in the real session......reversal of yesterday?
FC long.....nice one.....target?
Still think 10400 will be cleared....
Added at 10285...
Now the question is what will happen in the real session......reversal of yesterday?
FC long.....nice one.....target?
Still think 10400 will be cleared....
