Where is market heading ? Short , Medium Term Grey's analysis

[Grey1]

I have to remind members that it is very likey we could hit the 11600 very soon,, I am talking about As soon as Thursday ( EVEN MONDAY ) .. I know about FOMC but I have a feeling any thing less than 1% is not going to cut and market will sell off.( doubt if 75% excite the market either but I could be 100% wrong )

SO if the sell off happens in the form of capitulation I will close 75% of my swing postions to capitalise on the situation . Capitulation is GOD sent for traders,,


SO be ready to take some profit off the table in your SWING short portfolio and if you are DAY trading GO LONG STRONG STOCKS as soon as the market hits this major level,,

There will be huge scalping opportunities next week ,, DONOT MISS IT

grey1

 

[Glenn]

I have to remind members that it is very likey we could hit the 11600 very soon,, I am talking about As soon as Thursday ( EVEN MONDAY ) .. I know about FOMC but I have a feeling any thing less than 1% is not going to cut and market will sell off.( doubt if 75% excite the market either but I could be 100% wrong )

SO if the sell off happens in the form of capitulation I will close 75% of my swing postions to capitalise on the situation . Capitulation is GOD sent for traders,,


SO be ready to take some profit off the table in your SWING short portfolio and if you are DAY trading GO LONG STRONG STOCKS as soon as the market hits this major level,,

There will be huge scalping opportunities next week ,, DONOT MISS IT

grey1

EVEN MONDAY
Fed acts Sunday to prevent global bank run Monday

By Rex Nutting & Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:38 p.m. EDT March 16, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Acting quickly to prevent a run on major global financial firms, the Federal Reserve cut its discount rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.25% and offered to lend money to a longer list of firms than ever before.
Glenn

 

[Grey1]

EVEN MONDAY
Fed acts Sunday to prevent global bank run Monday

By Rex Nutting & Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:38 p.m. EDT March 16, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Acting quickly to prevent a run on major global financial firms, the Federal Reserve cut its discount rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.25% and offered to lend money to a longer list of firms than ever before.
Glenn

Thanks Glenn,

BS problem is tip of the ICEBERG ,

LAST WEEK

Only last week S&P said the end of the credit crunch is in sight ,,,
Only Tuesday last week BS said every thing was Kushty :clap:

THIS WEEK
JP morgan is buying BS @ 99% discount,, $2 A SHARE
Only last week Most analysts said " THIS WAS THE BOTTOM "

And there was Technical Trader group shorting the market. :clap::cheesy:

CNBC Journalists are not suppose to mention the WORD " CRASH " or "CAPITULATION " . Today they did

oppps

Grey1

 

[dcraig1]

EVEN MONDAY
Fed acts Sunday to prevent global bank run Monday

By Rex Nutting & Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:38 p.m. EDT March 16, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Acting quickly to prevent a run on major global financial firms, the Federal Reserve cut its discount rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.25% and offered to lend money to a longer list of firms than ever before.
Glenn

"The squeeze on liquidity has taken a new and worrying twist.
That’s the conclusion to be drawn from the Bank of England’s move on Monday to hold exceptional fine-tuning open market operations, offering £5bn of three-day money to tide banks over until the regular OMO is held on Thursday."

FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » BoE moves as overnight money dries up

 

[Glenn]

Execution brokerages

Some comments today on CNBC about the fall in share price of companies like IB, suggesting concern about the safety of funds in client accounts, and that some people are withdrawing money from their accounts.

Hmm

Glenn

 

[Trader333]

Hmm, well if IB go under then I guess we are all in a very bad way. I would think that this is an over reaction after all IB is not involved in investing of any sort. In many ways I would think funds are more safe in IB than pretty much any bank at the moment.


Paul

 

[rajibde]

I have to remind members that it is very likey we could hit the 11600 very soon,, I am talking about As soon as Thursday ( EVEN MONDAY ) .. I know about FOMC but I have a feeling any thing less than 1% is not going to cut and market will sell off.( doubt if 75% excite the market either but I could be 100% wrong )

SO if the sell off happens in the form of capitulation I will close 75% of my swing postions to capitalise on the situation . Capitulation is GOD sent for traders,,


SO be ready to take some profit off the table in your SWING short portfolio and if you are DAY trading GO LONG STRONG STOCKS as soon as the market hits this major level,,

There will be huge scalping opportunities next week ,, DONOT MISS IT

grey1

Hi Iraj-the Magician- Thanks a lot .

Raj

 

[Glenn]

Hmm, well if IB go under then I guess we are all in a very bad way. I would think that this is an over reaction after all IB is not involved in investing of any sort. In many ways I would think funds are more safe in IB than pretty much any bank at the moment.


Paul

Hi Paul
Depends whether you think the cup is half full or half empty
IB holds (somewhere) funds in Cash and one-day forward FX transactions.
But the main point is that the cash etc has to be held somewhere and unless IB are themselves a bank, which is unclear, (it is described as having 2 businesses - Market Making and Electronic brokerage) it will be lodged elsewhere.
If the funds are in another bank, who knows where that bank have lent the money ?
They have just sent out a note to placate clients, but it doesn't mention where the money is held.

I'm always intrigued when one vital piece of information is missing (or even hidden).
Searching on the net has revealed nothing so far.

Glenn

 

[Grey1]

here we go

IB Bulletin - March 17, 2008
Dear IB Customer:

During the last few weeks we have been running an advertisement in the Wall Street Journal regarding the safety of moving money to Interactive Brokers. We want all of our customers to know that every word of this advertisement remains true and accurate. We are proud of our prudent and conservative policies that protect our clients' assets. Please click here to see our advertisement.


Sincerely,

Interactive Brokers

 

[Trader333]

They have just sent out a note to placate clients, but it doesn't mention where the money is held.

Probably with Bear Stearns


Paul

 

[Grey1]

Today after the Fed announcement I closed all my short swing positions and I am all in cash . The reason for closing the positions is,, risk associated with NEW levels of volatility which is beyond historical cycle on the weekly , Monthly and daily chart. These levels could even further increase and the down ward reward no longer justifies to have an open position ,, As a result I am all OUT and cash ,,

I am not going to take any position till the volatility reduces as well as the market mode turns into technical from purely a NEWS and DATA driven market,,


It has been an excellent SHORT 6 month for all the bears and it is time for us to sit back and INTRA DAY TRADE .

Now I am going to kick ass day trading even though I prefer not to ,,

Muchas Grasias Mr Market

I am thinking of arranging 1 day in a MONTH ( EVERY MONTH ) to live day trade so members can make £500 / month following my trades depending on my health . As soon as I make up my mind I will post the date.

Grey1

 

[belflan]

I am thinking of arranging 1 day in a MONTH ( EVERY MONTH ) to live day trade so members can make £500 / month following my trades depending on my health . As soon as I make up my mind I will post the date.

Grey1

I'll be there, GREAT!

Glen

 

[rajibde]

Muchas Grasias Mr Market

I am thinking of arranging 1 day in a MONTH ( EVERY MONTH ) to live day trade so members can make £500 / month following my trades depending on my health . As soon as I make up my mind I will post the date.

Grey1

Hi Iraj,

That will be extremely nice of you and very benefecial for all of us I'm sure.

Incidentally, another very nice and profitable day with your intraday strategy (currently I do not have any swing positions).
The Iraj Nminute is so useful that even in a strong uptrending day like today about 50% of my profits came from the selection of stocks as per that tool when the Indu was turning down (i.e. selecting stocks to short).
In the future paltalk sessions, it will be very useful to know a bit more about exiting the profitable trades- at the moment I tend to leave part of meat on the table in the 'take and run pholosophy'..... although even the 'part meat ' gives a good return

Thanks and best wishes.

Raj

 

[Grey1]

Hi Iraj,

at the moment I tend to leave part of meat on the table in the 'take and run pholosophy'..... although even the 'part meat ' gives a good return

Thanks and best wishes.

Raj

This is my problem too,, In fact I hardly get the best part of the meat,, some days for some none techncial reasons I really MILK the trade but often leave loads on the table

Perhaps other traders can help out ..



Grey1

 

[Trader333]

Iraj,

That will be great for all concerned, Thanks


Paul

 

[Blu-Ray]

Thanks Iraj, That sounds great, I learnt so much off the webinar, that it would be great to sit with you live again and see if I'm picking it up correctly.

Cheers

Andy

 

[jdbzero]

I am thinking of arranging 1 day in a MONTH ( EVERY MONTH ) to live day trade so members can make £500 / month following my trades depending on my health . As soon as I make up my mind I will post the date.

Grey1

Brilliant.

Thanks for your portfolio status update as well.

Jonathan

 

[rajibde]

This is my problem too,, In fact I hardly get the best part of the meat,, some days for some none techncial reasons I really MILK the trade but often leave loads on the table

Perhaps other traders can help out ..



Grey1

Well if the 'King Marksman' does that then I guess I should continue all my efforts on fine tuning the entries and stop worring about the leftovers on the table... Thanks Iraj.

Raj

 

[MarkB]

Here are a couple of trades from Monday. Sometimes exiting the trade "too early" turns out to be the right decision. If I had held both these trades until the 5 min played out I would have been worse off. I exited as the one minute started to turn up as I have found over the last couple of weeks (when the market is not behaving technically as Grey1 has pointed out) that it can turn against you viciously as the 1 min exhausts itself. As it happens If I had let the 10 min play out BBY would have shown a bigger profit but that's all in hindsight.

Quick question for Grey1 or anybody that knows, would it ever be ok to hold a trade while the 5 min turned against you if the 10 min was still moving in your direction or is it good practice to exit on the 5 min?

Glad to hear that others are having good succes with Grey1's strategy, helps me to keep going

 

[Glenn]

This is my problem too,, In fact I hardly get the best part of the meat,, some days for some none techncial reasons I really MILK the trade but often leave loads on the table

Perhaps other traders can help out ..



Grey1

As most people would give their right arm just to be able to be consistently profitable, don't you think that Rothschild had it right when he said "I made my money by exiting too soon" ?

Personally I keep a log of the whole trading day, which allows later review of decisions. Usually a full A4 page of notes in small writing.
This means you can go back and ask yourself "Why did I do this instead of that ?".
"Did I stick to the strategy or not, or was it simply a rare losing day?".
"What distractions took my concentration away ?" etc.

Glenn