What's with this runaway trend?

jacknapier

Active member
157 2
A nice pull back and consolidation would be nice. It can't possibly last forever. What's supporting it anyway? That things don't completely suck they don't quite suck as much as they did before? Or is it that everyone's got so used to everything sucking for so long nobody cares anymore?
 

counter_violent

Legendary member
11,267 3,005
A nice pull back and consolidation would be nice. It can't possibly last forever. What's supporting it anyway? That things don't completely suck they don't quite suck as much as they did before? Or is it that everyone's got so used to everything sucking for so long nobody cares anymore?

In the US anyway, almost certainly powered by reporting and dividends season.
It will come to an end soon enough when theres no bonus to be gained by being in...as for timing it's end, thats a whole other can of worms!

My best guess would be 1-7 trading days...top should be in.
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,665 1,489
A nice pull back and consolidation would be nice. It can't possibly last forever. What's supporting it anyway? That things don't completely suck they don't quite suck as much as they did before? Or is it that everyone's got so used to everything sucking for so long nobody cares anymore?

'Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.'

The thing supporting this market is the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and other Central Planners around the world. Things still suck but Wall Street and Main street are now disconnected due to cheap money flooding the markets. People who say there is no inflation fail to acknowledge the obvious.
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
Technically we were in a correction last 13 years , add to that inflation , and QE from the FED and BOJ ... etc so it can be justified , and it can be justified if it went down : weak growth especially Europe and China .. etc lol so it can be justified either way , calling tops and bottoms isn't smart , just trade with a SL and MM and expect anything to happen .
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,758 2,100
I guess it will just keep going until it stops.........

the Trend followers are mopping up .................prepare for the books to be re-released and the junk mail to begin

N
 

jacknapier

Active member
157 2
I don't know about anyone else, but this trend "feels" different than last years Dec-April trend. It's like the market has lost the fear of 08 or something. The only time I've seen this strong an uptrend was with silver from 20-50$ in 2010-11.
 

random12345

Established member
793 280
I don't know about anyone else, but this trend "feels" different than last years Dec-April trend. It's like the market has lost the fear of 08 or something. The only time I've seen this strong an uptrend was with silver from 20-50$ in 2010-11.

If Bernanke mentions tapering too strongly today, US specific equities could drop like a stone in the short term, but I agree it's a very tough trend to short... I shorted the S&P at 1630 yesterday and I think I'll get out still, even with the USD strength yesterday (previously there had been S&P and USD index diversion which normally precedes a sell off). There's a lot of big money caught short around 1600 right now. Maybe I'm about to join them.
 

Hoggums

Senior member
2,176 878
Never try and pick tops and bottoms. It's a fools game. Just like any other rally I guarantee this one will run until everyone screaming "this is ridiculous, it's gone too far" starts doubting themselves and decides to join the crowd and go long.
 

Lee Shepherd

Senior member
2,164 573
Never try and pick tops and bottoms. It's a fools game. Just like any other rally I guarantee this one will run until everyone screaming "this is ridiculous, it's gone too far" starts doubting themselves and decides to join the crowd and go long.


Hi Hoggums,

I'm going to ask specifically about the saying, "do not pick tops and bottoms" as this is very commonly bounced around. For the record I do not understand the meaning although I have been told this thousands of times over the many years trading.

I'm asking you as a long term member and trader.

Here's the thing, (or my take on it):

Don't we always try and pick tops and bottoms when we trade, ie, support/resistance, MA's, trend lines, different time frames etc. In other words I'm going short here because I believe there is a strong possibility that it will go down from here, therefore being the ceiling or top. Same goes for the reverse.

Whats your take on this?

NOTE TO OTHERS: The above is not my recommendation nor an actual trade.

Lee
 

mike.

Senior member
2,101 709
Lee, I think you are right in what you say, Although, I took a trade last night where my indicators pointed to a long position, In haste i took the trade, stupidly for some reason i failed to notice the price had already tested the key resistance 3 times on the 4hr chart, it failed to breakthrough the 4th time and started a trend reversal which is still going down, I was stopped out -18 pips, lesson learned.
 

Hoggums

Senior member
2,176 878
Hi Hoggums,

I'm going to ask specifically about the saying, "do not pick tops and bottoms" as this is very commonly bounced around. For the record I do not understand the meaning although I have been told this thousands of times over the many years trading.

I'm asking you as a long term member and trader.

Here's the thing, (or my take on it):

Don't we always try and pick tops and bottoms when we trade, ie, support/resistance, MA's, trend lines, different time frames etc. In other words I'm going short here because I believe there is a strong possibility that it will go down from here, therefore being the ceiling or top. Same goes for the reverse.

Whats your take on this?

NOTE TO OTHERS: The above is not my recommendation nor an actual trade.

Lee
There may be many pullbacks within an over upward trend and many of these I would trade, but only once the pullback was established. Trying to predict the point the pullback/reversal will happen before there is any evidence of it - or before the market has even reached that level is what I am refering to.

Simply from my own experience trying to pick these levels based on S/R is about as successful as rolling dice. The advantage of this method is you can run tight stops and the risk/reward ratio is good, but the overall success rate is poor and I believe a lot of people trading this way are struggling.

Personally I've had far more success waiting for a trend to establish itself and jumping on board.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Lee Shepherd
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock