What was I thinking?


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Yes. Last July was exceptional. I look back on it with great fondness, and a longing for those sorts of days again. :D

The traditional saying is: Go away in May, and don't come back until St Leger Day.

St Leger Day is mid-September. The thinking behind the saying is that the best money is to be made from end September to May, and you might as well take the rest of the summer off!

I can't remember where I saw it, but someone somewhere posted a chart about the market's intraday volatility - and it has been a very noticeable drop from the lovely volatility we had during the winter, and then the doldrums from then on. The Iraq affair, IMO, started the doldrums earlier than usual, as nervousness just kept the punters away.

An easy way of looking at volatility is to look at the length of the bars. On a daily bar, a long one suggests volatility, and a short one suggests sideways action. April, May, June, and July have virtually had short bars, and although the overall direction is up, it has been a choppy ride.

A rough guide - it has taken us 3½ months to travel 1,500 points on the Dow. In October it took 6 weeks to do the same distance.
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