Volatility collapse

[Solas0077]

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2016/07/unprecedented-volatility-collapse/

Now 12 days with less than 1% variation. Large move could be around corner.

 

[Signalcalc]

Is it the Summer slowdown? Although it looks exceptional from the report.

No slowdown in FX so far.

 

[NVP]

Is it the Summer slowdown? Although it looks exceptional from the report.

No slowdown in FX so far.

define how you measure volatility in the forex market ?

thanks
N:smart:

 

[Signalcalc]

define how you measure volatility in the forex market ?



thanks

N:smart:

I think of forex volatility as being related to the size and speed of price fluctuations. So far I haven't noticed a reduction in these measurements even though we have entered the summer 'quiet' period.

 

[tomorton]

Interesting, thanks. Usually a congestion pattern will see price emerge in the direction of the underlying trend, same as entry direction, but yes, maybe we're not in the usual cycle. We should soon find out.

 

[Splitlink]

Reduction of volatility is the meetimg of buyers and sellers and the formation of the springboard as taught by dbphoenix?

That seems to tie in with Tom's post. Once again,though, you have to know which way to jump. Probabilities say with the underlying trend but those spikes and traps are to be be avoided.

 

[tomorton]

Reduction of volatility is the meetimg of buyers and sellers and the formation of the springboard as taught by dbphoenix?

That seems to tie in with Tom's post. Once again,though, you have to know which way to jump. Probabilities say with the underlying trend but those spikes and traps are to be be avoided.

Which way to jump? That's the rub. US and UK stock markets give no TA reason to short except in the usual crop of individual situations.

Until the bear strikes I'm still mostly long. But what about sell orders on the indices? Say 500pts down on the Dow? Anyone carrying such orders already? Solas0077?

 

[joseph1986]

everyone predicting vix implosion.....everyone also thought summer was going to be rough including myself.....the analysts thought britain will remain........if anything you have a better chance betting against everyone this year

 

[NVP]

I think of forex volatility as being related to the size and speed of price fluctuations. So far I haven't noticed a reduction in these measurements even though we have entered the summer 'quiet' period.

last 2 weeks in july went a little flatter re G8........but based on the pre/post Berxit volatility that's not surprising ............see the last few mins of video re july action

still plenty around intraday though Mondays a little quieter ..................no complaints here

N

 

[NVP]

everyone predicting vix implosion.....everyone also thought summer was going to be rough including myself.....the analysts thought britain will remain........if anything you have a better chance betting against everyone this year

unusual and unsettled year ......so be prepared for anything and trade what you see.......so business as usual really

N

 

[Signalcalc]

last 2 weeks in july went a little flatter re G8........but based on the pre/post Berxit volatility that's not surprising ............see the last few mins of video re july action

still plenty around intraday though Mondays a little quieter ..................no complaints here

N

Agreed, intra week flat periods amongst intra week high volatility periods appear to be the norm with the odd month that is flat almost every week.

 

[IFeelFree]

Which way to jump? That's the rub. US and UK stock markets give no TA reason to short except in the usual crop of individual situations.

Until the bear strikes I'm still mostly long. But what about sell orders on the indices? Say 500pts down on the Dow? Anyone carrying such orders already? Solas0077?

My trading algorithm has me short the S&P500 for the next few days. That could change in the future, so we'll see...

 

[tomorton]

My trading algorithm has me short the S&P500 for the next few days. That could change in the future, so we'll see...

But are you already short, or have you entered sell orders or are you waiting for the downward move?

 

[IFeelFree]

But are you already short, or have you entered sell orders or are you waiting for the downward move?

I put in my short position at the close on Friday.

 

[darktrade]

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2016/07/unprecedented-volatility-collapse/

Now 12 days with less than 1% variation. Large move could be around corner.

Now 15 days with a 1.5% range, still tight. Could the market be random as professors say and we just try to rationalize the moves after they occur?

Nice article and the blog is worth following.

 

[Solas0077]

Upside breakout but it could be random and not correlated to volatility,

 

[tomorton]

I'm still favouring long positions over shorts but I am sticking to a holding period of not more than 5 days. I'm also making sure I've got at least one or two forex positions open.

(actually this might be a good rule for "normal" conditions too)