Useful facts for "Anoraks"

[ChartMan]

Try this:
Of all stocks today, 116 had a rise of greater than 5%.
Of all stocks today, 38 had a drop of greater than 5%
Of all stocks today, 465 had a rise from yesterday AND finshed the day LESS than 1% off their high of the day.

 

[ChartMan]

I suppose I should give a backdated example for a reference...from 12/03/01

Same tests:
32>5%
193 <5%
102 closed up within 1% of HOD

And while I'm at it, here's the results from a year ago in the Tech Boom! Remember that?

133 >5%
44 < 5%
475 closed up within 1% of HOD

Now I know you can twist statistics any way you want, buy to me, these are more than interesting results.
Shall we call a bottom now?

These tests were not planned, or fixed. They were done through boredom and to satisfy my curiosity, having seen a few interesting intra-day moves today.The dates picked for backtest were purely arbitrary.

 

[darth trader]

some more statistics...

I tried running some of my analyses on sector indices tonight and 13 out the 42 I use (mainly ft350 sectors plus ft350 and techmark) show buy signals tonight or friday night based on bollinger bands.

DYOR.

 

[ChartMan]

update today.

For those of you that have EDS, I'm posting the 3 routines in the EDS section.



Of all stocks today, 134 (+18) had a rise of greater than 5%.
Of all stocks today, 28 (-10) had a drop of greater than 5%
Of all stocks today, 403 (-62) had a rise from yesterday AND finshed the day LESS than 1% off their high of the day.

Looks like onward and upward to me...

 

[troyresearch]

Any ideas of what kind of volume levels (ie institutional buyers piling back in) would really call a bottom?

Troy

 

[ChartMan]

No, I don't, I'm afraid. I guess we will just have to wait and see. I agree that the more volume is ploughed in, the greater the chance of a continued trend reversal.
I don't think all shares in all markets will bottom out at the same time.Tracking the number of advancing issues versus the number of declining issues is as good a way as any of guaging market sentiment and hence a sustained reversal.
Bad news will continue to decimate stocks and confuse the issue.

 

[troyresearch]

Agreed. Mere speculation but instinct (which, incidentally seems to have been more profitable for me than charts...) tells me that we have further south to go both sides of the pond.

 

[titus-uk]

Same here..

The thing to remember is what drove last weeks rally? Any good news? Not really - nothing enough to break this viscious bear trend.

My stomach says that this is a bear rally, and as I cannot dedicate too much time to the markets before my exams, I feel i is wiser to stay on the sidelines.

All the best

Mark

 

[darth trader]

regarding bottoms, I believe that there could be two types:

a v-shape - caused by capitulation; this is normally associated with record volumes over a couple of days;

a u-shape - caused by slow attrition over a long period of time; volume decreases as the public get bored and sell their shares while the smart money slowly accumulate. Then guess what? A big breakout on volume as demand comes back...

 

[troyresearch]

Maybe we should put this to a poll of t2w members?