Useful facts for "Anoraks"

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Try this:
Of all stocks today, 116 had a rise of greater than 5%.
Of all stocks today, 38 had a drop of greater than 5%
Of all stocks today, 465 had a rise from yesterday AND finshed the day LESS than 1% off their high of the day.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
I suppose I should give a backdated example for a reference...from 12/03/01

Same tests:
32>5%
193 <5%
102 closed up within 1% of HOD

And while I'm at it, here's the results from a year ago in the Tech Boom! Remember that?

133 >5%
44 < 5%
475 closed up within 1% of HOD

Now I know you can twist statistics any way you want, buy to me, these are more than interesting results.
Shall we call a bottom now?

These tests were not planned, or fixed. They were done through boredom and to satisfy my curiosity, having seen a few interesting intra-day moves today.The dates picked for backtest were purely arbitrary.
 
some more statistics...

I tried running some of my analyses on sector indices tonight and 13 out the 42 I use (mainly ft350 sectors plus ft350 and techmark) show buy signals tonight or friday night based on bollinger bands.

DYOR.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
update today.

For those of you that have EDS, I'm posting the 3 routines in the EDS section.



Of all stocks today, 134 (+18) had a rise of greater than 5%.
Of all stocks today, 28 (-10) had a drop of greater than 5%
Of all stocks today, 403 (-62) had a rise from yesterday AND finshed the day LESS than 1% off their high of the day.

Looks like onward and upward to me...
 

troyresearch

Active member
132 0
Any ideas of what kind of volume levels (ie institutional buyers piling back in) would really call a bottom?

Troy
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
No, I don't, I'm afraid. I guess we will just have to wait and see. I agree that the more volume is ploughed in, the greater the chance of a continued trend reversal.
I don't think all shares in all markets will bottom out at the same time.Tracking the number of advancing issues versus the number of declining issues is as good a way as any of guaging market sentiment and hence a sustained reversal.
Bad news will continue to decimate stocks and confuse the issue.
 

troyresearch

Active member
132 0
Agreed. Mere speculation but instinct (which, incidentally seems to have been more profitable for me than charts...) tells me that we have further south to go both sides of the pond.
 

titus-uk

1
291 5
Same here..

The thing to remember is what drove last weeks rally? Any good news? Not really - nothing enough to break this viscious bear trend.

My stomach says that this is a bear rally, and as I cannot dedicate too much time to the markets before my exams, I feel i is wiser to stay on the sidelines.

All the best

Mark
 
regarding bottoms, I believe that there could be two types:

a v-shape - caused by capitulation; this is normally associated with record volumes over a couple of days;

a u-shape - caused by slow attrition over a long period of time; volume decreases as the public get bored and sell their shares while the smart money slowly accumulate. Then guess what? A big breakout on volume as demand comes back...
 

troyresearch

Active member
132 0
Maybe we should put this to a poll of t2w members?
 
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