ukx

[danpayne]

Everyone seems of the opinion that the rally since march is "a fools rally". Does anyone believe the next shorting point on the FTSE looks like 4650 to 4685 (with criteria in agreement at that level ) or are you also seeing a possible reverse head and shoulders ?? Any thoughts on this would be interesting

Dan

 

[amnonco]

instead of trying to predict the market behavior, try to decide upfront what would you do in any market situation.
e.g if the market touches 4685 go short X contracts, goes down, adds more contracts (where? how much?) or cover some of the contracts (where? how much?)
if it goes against you - now what? where do you pull the plug?

IMHO, everyone thought that each one of the recent "tops" is a short opportunity - and everyone got it wrong (except those who went long down under), so trying to predict the market is kinda useless.

just my 2 cents...

 

[danpayne]

instead of trying to predict the market behavior, try to decide upfront what would you do in any market situation.
e.g if the market touches 4685 go short X contracts, goes down, adds more contracts (where? how much?) or cover some of the contracts (where? how much?)
if it goes against you - now what? where do you pull the plug?

IMHO, everyone thought that each one of the recent "tops" is a short opportunity - and everyone got it wrong (except those who went long down under), so trying to predict the market is kinda useless.

just my 2 cents...

yeah I agree, I have a plan for the ftse not unlike what you spoke of ,was just curious how others may see things .
Been trading for about a year keen to get others points of view
Ive been trading patterns,formations etc trying out different techniques,swing,position,day trading . Looking for the style most suited to me
keen to share ideas and suggestions, so your 2cents is appreciated lol

 

[tomorton]

Yes, trying to predict is indeed useless - but planning is everything. You could try a shorter time frame for your planning - trying to plan whether you will need an umbrella on a given date in 3 weeks from today is difficult, but planning what to wear tomorrow afternoon is much more likely to be rewarded,

4650-4685 may indeed be a shorting opportunity but what are you doing before that point? If we close above 4520, will you be going long? And who says its a fool's rally? When did they decide that? Was that after they closed their own longs from March? So what if it is indeed a fool's rally? - Surely it was still an uptrend so an opportunity to trade on the long side?

For short-term and swing trade analyses come over to http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-indices/49208-swingin-ftse-2009-a.html