Ukraine invasion

Your whataboutism isn't a very strong argument. Do two wrongs make a right?
😆 Too funny R_L,
I understand and accept that one (me included) wants to think we in the west are the good guys and it's that nasty evil Putin and the Russians who are the bad guys. I used to think that once and, when the penny finally drops that 'we' are every bit as bad - if not worse - than the supposed bad guy(s) - it's a bitter pill to swallow. However, swallow it we must, because burying our heads in the sand and ignoring the failings, shortcomings and sheer criminality of one's own government and projecting all the bad shit onto someone else isn't the answer. It really isn't. Sooner or later, we have to accept that our own governments are run - to a greater or lesser extent - by corrupt politicians who care not one jot about the people who elected them and whom they're supposed to serve. They worship money and retaining power at any cost - even if that involves fighting utterly spurious and pointless wars against imaginary foes who pose zero threat to our national security.

You've been on here long enough R_L for the penny to have dropped; in your heart of heats you surely understand what's really going on - you're just not ready to accept it. Yet. So, here's your New Year challenge: it's time to embrace reality and the uncomfortable truth. It's time to swallow the (red) pill!

 
Your whataboutism isn't a very strong argument. Do two wrongs make a right?
View attachment 345259

Dear Rufus,

Much like you I used to believe all the BS US dished out. I used to argue with my sociology teachers at secondary school as I thought they were commies. I believed in all that Rambo shit about the US protecting us from communism and all that tosh.

You know Ho Chi Minh actually thought the US would side with Vietnam against the French because the US had a similar experience trying to gain independence from England.

He wanted to become a US allie and help Vietnam gain freedom from the French.

The French went to US and played the communism card and totally blind sided the Yanks.

US could have had a much different experience with Vietnam and subsequent influence with the now Asian tigers. What they may have told you and the lies perpertrated are really shocking.

I've only started seeing the US for who they are after the twin tower strikes and attrocities subsequently conducted in Afghanistan and Iraq. Now looking back reading and learning, giving time for how the other parties tell the same story, I've come to realise just how misled and misguided I have been.

I say this to you sincerely. If you open your heart and conscience the stuff that is done in our name is quite shocking and we should call it out for what it is.
It is not about being right or wrong. It is simply humanity and doing what is right thing for the sake of humanity so we all live in harmoney on this beautiful world of ours.

👍 🙂
 

US Strike in Nigeria Framed as Christian Protection Draws Accusations of Political Theater

EU Sanctions Cut Benelux Exports to Russia by More Than 50 Percent

From Ally to Obstacle: Why the US Now Sees the EU as a Problem

Moscow Warns Against Deadlines as Ukraine Conflict Nears Possible Resolution

 
😆 Too funny R_L,
I understand and accept that one (me included) wants to think we in the west are the good guys and it's that nasty evil Putin and the Russians who are the bad guys. I used to think that once and, when the penny finally drops that 'we' are every bit as bad - if not worse - than the supposed bad guy(s) - it's a bitter pill to swallow. However, swallow it we must, because burying our heads in the sand and ignoring the failings, shortcomings and sheer criminality of one's own government and projecting all the bad shit onto someone else isn't the answer. It really isn't. Sooner or later, we have to accept that our own governments are run - to a greater or lesser extent - by corrupt politicians who care not one jot about the people who elected them and whom they're supposed to serve. They worship money and retaining power at any cost - even if that involves fighting utterly spurious and pointless wars against imaginary foes who pose zero threat to our national security.

You've been on here long enough R_L for the penny to have dropped; in your heart of heats you surely understand what's really going on - you're just not ready to accept it. Yet. So, here's your New Year challenge: it's time to embrace reality and the uncomfortable truth. It's time to swallow the (red) pill!

Dear Rufus,

Much like you I used to believe all the BS US dished out. I used to argue with my sociology teachers at secondary school as I thought they were commies. I believed in all that Rambo shit about the US protecting us from communism and all that tosh.

You know Ho Chi Minh actually thought the US would side with Vietnam against the French because the US had a similar experience trying to gain independence from England.

He wanted to become a US allie and help Vietnam gain freedom from the French.

The French went to US and played the communism card and totally blind sided the Yanks.

US could have had a much different experience with Vietnam and subsequent influence with the now Asian tigers. What they may have told you and the lies perpertrated are really shocking.

I've only started seeing the US for who they are after the twin tower strikes and attrocities subsequently conducted in Afghanistan and Iraq. Now looking back reading and learning, giving time for how the other parties tell the same story, I've come to realise just how misled and misguided I have been.

I say this to you sincerely. If you open your heart and conscience the stuff that is done in our name is quite shocking and we should call it out for what it is.
It is not about being right or wrong. It is simply humanity and doing what is right thing for the sake of humanity so we all live in harmoney on this beautiful world of ours.

👍 🙂
What's really going on is Russia started a war, constantly threatens its neighbors, and violates its neighbors' airspace. But Russia doesn't seem to care how many Russian, Ukrainian, North Korean, etc. lives are lost. If they did, the war would have ended long ago.

European leaders are slowly waking up to the threat.
Surely, you can understand why they don't want their countries to surrender to Russia.

What the other side did in other areas (e.g., Vietnam 50+ years ago or using nuclear weapons 80 years ago to yes, save lives ) might have been bad and unjustified but is irrelevant to what is happening now in Ukraine. Whataboutism is still a poor argument.
 
Hi R_L,
What's really going on is Russia started a war, constantly threatens its neighbors, and violates its neighbors' airspace. But Russia doesn't seem to care how many Russian, Ukrainian, North Korean, etc. lives are lost. If they did, the war would have ended long ago.
When did Russia start the war: 24th February 2022?
Wrong! This is why I gave up trying to have a sensible debate with you and the CVs and stopped posting to the thread. Because, every time those of us on the right side of history presented you with unassailable evidence that proved you wrong, you simply screwed up your eyes, put your fingers in your ears and ignored it. You know full well that Russia did not start the war, just as you know full well when and why it actually started following the CIA backed maidan coup of 2014.

European leaders are slowly waking up to the threat.
Surely, you can understand why they don't want their countries to surrender to Russia.
What threat: please tell me the threat that Putin and Russia pose to At' and me living in the U.K. and to Histo' living in Germany (at least, I think he's in Germany)? Starmer, my Prime Minister, sadly, is a far greater threat to my life, liberty, security and well being than Putin is. I'm deadly serious when I say I'm much more afraid of him and what he might do than I am of Putin. The sooner he, Macron and Merz et al are gone - the safer everyone in Europe will be.

What the other side did in other areas (e.g., Vietnam 50+ years ago or using nuclear weapons 80 years ago to yes, save lives ) might have been bad and unjustified but is irrelevant to what is happening now in Ukraine. Whataboutism is still a poor argument.
If 'whataboutism' was the only argument - then I'd agree with you. However, it's not. And it's entirely relevant here, because you are the one making out that Putin and Russia are a major threat to Europe, while completely ignoring the insane actions of your own President who's killing people all over the place. It's not Putin who's put a naval blockade around Venezuela, blowing up boats and launching missiles into Nigeria - it's Trump. So, explain to us how these two countries pose a threat to your life, liberty, security and well being living wherever you are in the U.S. and why these acts of war are necessary to protect you?

What will it take R_L for you to wake up and accept that it's us in the west - and you especially in the U.S. - who are the bad guys?
Tim.
 
R_L,
Please read, mark, learn and inwardly digest every single syllable of this open letter from Prof. Jeffrey Sachs to Germany's Chancellor Merz. How anyone can disagree with the sentiments expressed and believe that the current path of escalation towards a direct hot war with Russia (that European leaders appear intent on) is a preferable course of action is quite beyond me. Enjoy . . .

Jeffrey Sachs – An Open Letter to Chancellor Friedrich Merz: Security Is Indivisible – and History Matters

 
To put flesh on the bones of the letter (linked in my post above), here's an interview with Prof. Jeffrey Sachs by Prof. Glen Diesen. Enjoy . . .

 

West's policy on Ukraine rules out peaceful coexistence with Russia — German expert


 
Hi R_L,

When did Russia start the war: 24th February 2022?
Wrong! This is why I gave up trying to have a sensible debate with you and the CVs and stopped posting to the thread. Because, every time those of us on the right side of history presented you with unassailable evidence that proved you wrong, you simply screwed up your eyes, put your fingers in your ears and ignored it. You know full well that Russia did not start the war, just as you know full well when and why it actually started following the CIA backed maidan coup of 2014.
This is a joke. I think you actually believe the people of Ukraine shouldn't decide what is best for Ukraine, but instead Russia should. So Russia was insulted and that justifies arming ethnic Russians to attack the rest of Ukraine, taking over Crimea, and downing a commercial airliner.

What threat: please tell me the threat that Putin and Russia pose to At' and me living in the U.K. and to Histo' living in Germany (at least, I think he's in Germany)? Starmer, my Prime Minister, sadly, is a far greater threat to my life, liberty, security and well being than Putin is. I'm deadly serious when I say I'm much more afraid of him and what he might do than I am of Putin. The sooner he, Macron and Merz et al are gone - the safer everyone in Europe will be.
Another joke. Russia is continually threatening the rest of Europe including the UK and Germany.
Russia has issued several threats toward both the UK and Germany at different times, mostly in the context of the Ukraine war and broader tensions with NATO. There is no single, one‑time event, but rather a pattern of recurring threats over the last few years.pbs+1

Toward the UK​

  • In May 2024, Moscow warned it could strike British military targets if Ukrainian forces used UK‑supplied long‑range weapons against Russian territory, and it linked this to exercises simulating use of non‑strategic nuclear weapons.pbs
  • Russian officials and propagandists have repeatedly spoken of destroying the UK or “sinking” it with advanced weapons, especially since the full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, framing Britain as one of Russia’s main enemies.nestcentre

Toward Germany​

  • During the Ukraine war, Russian leaders and state media have warned of “military-technical” and even nuclear consequences for NATO countries, including Germany, if they deepen military support to Kyiv; such warnings intensified as Berlin sent heavier weapons and allowed their use closer to Russian territory.csisyoutube
  • Germany has also been named in Russian rhetoric and hybrid actions (cyber, sabotage, covert operations) as part of an unfriendly bloc that would be targeted in any escalation with NATO.csis

Joint or Europe‑wide threats​

  • Russian officials have repeatedly framed the UK, Germany, and other European states collectively as legitimate targets in a wider confrontation with “the West,” especially when discussing strikes on infrastructure, satellites, or bases supporting Ukraine.edition.cnn+1
  • These threats are typically conditional (e.g., if NATO weapons strike Russia) but are part of a broader pattern of intimidation toward European countries, including both the UK and Germany.edition.cnn+1

  1. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/...liation-if-involvement-in-ukraine-war-deepens
  2. https://nestcentre.org/war-with-the-anglo-saxons/
  3. https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/how-the-world-went-to-war-in-1914
  4. https://cepa.org/article/britain-hits-snooze-as-russias-threat-intensifies/
  5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable
  6. https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/09/europe/russian-satellite-spying-explainer-intl
  7. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-shadow-war-against-west
  8. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/25/europe/russia-europe-analysis-intl-cmd


you are the one making out that Putin and Russia are a major threat to Europe, while completely ignoring the insane actions of your own President who's killing people all over the place. It's not Putin who's put a naval blockade around Venezuela, blowing up boats and launching missiles into Nigeria - it's Trump. So, explain to us how these two countries pose a threat to your life, liberty, security and well being living wherever you are in the U.S. and why these acts of war are necessary to protect you?
My President suffers from dementia and is clearly abusing power. This whataboutism is still not a strong argument. What the U.S. is doing in Europe would be relevant to the Ukraine war, but you don't seem to think that's more important than bombing a few drug running boats or killing some ISIS terrorists in Nigeria (with the cooperation of the Nigerian government).
 
To put flesh on the bones of the letter (linked in my post above), here's an interview with Prof. Jeffrey Sachs by Prof. Glen Diesen. Enjoy . . .


Sachs has a selective memory. Remember, Gorbachev denied the so-called promises when Gorbachev was no longer a politician.

Also, starting in 1999, when the Soviet Union was history, former Soviet republics and satellites started joining NATO. Can anyone think of any possible reason they would do that? Did NATO force them, or did they see the threat from the east?
The countries that joined NATO after the fall of the Soviet Union are:
  • Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (March 12, 1999)
  • Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia (March 29, 2004)
  • Albania and Croatia (April 1, 2009)
  • Montenegro (June 5, 2017)
  • North Macedonia (March 27, 2020)
  • Finland (April 4, 2023)
  • Sweden (March 7, 2024)
 
Your whataboutism isn't a very strong argument. Do two wrongs make a right?

I do have difficulty comprehending how your mind works and that probably makes us similar in how we think I guess, when it comes to our failing mental faculties on comprehending the written word.

You bring down subject matter like hypocrisy and double standards to a word I've never heard before "whataboutism"???

Have you heard of the "Doctrine of Precedent" a legal principle? Compare how that stands up agains your concept of whataboutism?

The doctrine of precedent, or stare decisis, is a fundamental legal principle where courts must follow past decisions (precedents) from higher courts or their own prior rulings in similar cases, ensuring consistency, fairness, and predictability in the law. aka Whataboutism?

Yes two wrongs does make it right. It's called fairness and consistency. Do unto others as they have done unto.

Contrary to your popular belief do as I say and not as I do. That's how I interpret your version of whataboutism.
 
This is a joke. I think you actually believe the people of Ukraine shouldn't decide what is best for Ukraine, but instead Russia should. So Russia was insulted and that justifies arming ethnic Russians to attack the rest of Ukraine, taking over Crimea, and downing a commercial airliner.
You believe wrong. Instead of double guessing what I think, how about providing answers to the specific questions put to you? There's only one reason why you won't do that that I can think: you don't have any.

Another joke. Russia is continually threatening the rest of Europe including the UK and Germany.
A joke, you say. What is a joke is that you have to resort to AI to find some vague threats from Russia that are in direct response to actual aggression from the U.K. and Germany respectively. That's really, really scraping the barrel R_L!

My President suffers from dementia and is clearly abusing power. This whataboutism is still not a strong argument. What the U.S. is doing in Europe would be relevant to the Ukraine war, but you don't seem to think that's more important than bombing a few drug running boats or killing some ISIS terrorists in Nigeria (with the cooperation of the Nigerian government).
Deflection. You're not addressing the questions put to you. Again, we both know the reason why.

You say: "Sachs has a selective memory. Remember, Gorbachev denied the so-called promises when Gorbachev was no longer a politician."
Totally wrong. Rather than reading how someone else interprets Gorbachev's comments - why not read the actual interview? Far from denying the promises, he fully acknowledges U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s promise that: “NATO will not move one inch further east.” What he also said was: "The topic of 'NATO expansion' was not discussed at all . . ." Why would it be? As he'd been given assurances that NATO wouldn't expand one inch to the east then, self evidently, there's nothing to discuss.

In the same interview. Gorbachev goes on to say (bold emphasis added by me). . .
"Today we need to admit that there is a crisis in European (and global) politics. One of the reasons, albeit not the only reason, is a lack of desire on the part of our Western partners to take Russia’s point of view and legal interests in security into consideration. They paid lip service to applauding Russia, especially during the Yeltsin years, but in deeds they didn’t consider it. I am referring primarily to NATO expansion, missile defense plans, the West’s actions in regions of importance to Russia (Yugoslavia, Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine). They literally said “This is none of your business.” As a result, an abscess formed and it burst.

I would advise Western leaders to thoroughly analyze all of this, instead of accusing Russia of everything. They should remember the Europe we managed to create at the beginning of the 1990s and what it has unfortunately turned into in recent years."
Russia's pointed out these failings on the part of the west multiple times over decades. As you well know but refuse to acknowledge, continuing to ignore and/or dismiss Russia's security concerns is the reason the war started. If western leaders had heeded Gorbachev's comments when the interview was conducted in 2014 - the war could have been avoided altogether.

R_L, you write: ". . . Also, starting in 1999, when the Soviet Union was history, former Soviet republics and satellites started joining NATO. Can anyone think of any possible reason they would do that? Did NATO force them, or did they see the threat from the east?"
As you must surely know by now, if the U.S. wants something - woe betide those that stands in its way. It has successfully managed to turn the whole of Europe into a collective vassal state and would certainly want to bring former soviet republics under its umbrella. As for any perceived threat they may have felt, a more pertinent question to ask is: Why would they perceive a threat from the east (Russia) when Russia's just granted them independence? That makes no sense at all.

R_L, I like you and I'm happy to engage with you if you're willing to be serious and address the points made. Sadly, there's little evidence of that recently and I feel you're just wasting of my time. So, I'll end by saying please do us both a favour and read Prof. Sachs' letter and watch the interview with him with an open mind and consider his points carefully. Thereafter, ask yourself how you would respond to decades long provocation from the U.S. and the EU if you were in Putin's shoes.
Tim.
 
You believe wrong. Instead of double guessing what I think, how about providing answers to the specific questions put to you? There's only one reason why you won't do that that I can think: you don't have any.


A joke, you say. What is a joke is that you have to resort to AI to find some vague threats from Russia that are in direct response to actual aggression from the U.K. and Germany respectively. That's really, really scraping the barrel R_L!


Deflection. You're not addressing the questions put to you. Again, we both know the reason why.

You say: "Sachs has a selective memory. Remember, Gorbachev denied the so-called promises when Gorbachev was no longer a politician."
Totally wrong. Rather than reading how someone else interprets Gorbachev's comments - why not read the actual interview? Far from denying the promises, he fully acknowledges U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s promise that: “NATO will not move one inch further east.” What he also said was: "The topic of 'NATO expansion' was not discussed at all . . ." Why would it be? As he'd been given assurances that NATO wouldn't expand one inch to the east then, self evidently, there's nothing to discuss.

In the same interview. Gorbachev goes on to say (bold emphasis added by me). . .
"Today we need to admit that there is a crisis in European (and global) politics. One of the reasons, albeit not the only reason, is a lack of desire on the part of our Western partners to take Russia’s point of view and legal interests in security into consideration. They paid lip service to applauding Russia, especially during the Yeltsin years, but in deeds they didn’t consider it. I am referring primarily to NATO expansion, missile defense plans, the West’s actions in regions of importance to Russia (Yugoslavia, Iraq, Georgia, Ukraine). They literally said “This is none of your business.” As a result, an abscess formed and it burst.

I would advise Western leaders to thoroughly analyze all of this, instead of accusing Russia of everything. They should remember the Europe we managed to create at the beginning of the 1990s and what it has unfortunately turned into in recent years."

Russia's pointed out these failings on the part of the west multiple times over decades. As you well know but refuse to acknowledge, continuing to ignore and/or dismiss Russia's security concerns is the reason the war started. If western leaders had heeded Gorbachev's comments when the interview was conducted in 2014 - the war could have been avoided altogether.

R_L, you write: ". . . Also, starting in 1999, when the Soviet Union was history, former Soviet republics and satellites started joining NATO. Can anyone think of any possible reason they would do that? Did NATO force them, or did they see the threat from the east?"
As you must surely know by now, if the U.S. wants something - woe betide those that stands in its way. It has successfully managed to turn the whole of Europe into a collective vassal state and would certainly want to bring former soviet republics under its umbrella. As for any perceived threat they may have felt, a more pertinent question to ask is: Why would they perceive a threat from the east (Russia) when Russia's just granted them independence? That makes no sense at all.

R_L, I like you and I'm happy to engage with you if you're willing to be serious and address the points made. Sadly, there's little evidence of that recently and I feel you're just wasting of my time. So, I'll end by saying please do us both a favour and read Prof. Sachs' letter and watch the interview with him with an open mind and consider his points carefully. Thereafter, ask yourself how you would respond to decades long provocation from the U.S. and the EU if you were in Putin's shoes.
Tim.
Super post and very much on the nail Tim.

Agree 100%.
 




Working groups on Ukraine, cooperation prospects: details of Putin-Trump phone call

 
Thanks Histo',
Just in case R_L or anyone else overlooks this link - I'm re-posting it. Absolutely no one with a shred of intellectual honesty can argue that Russia was not provoked into this conflict. They absolutely were, 100%. Should they have done it and do I condone it? No, absolutely not. However, the reasons for their actions are crystal clear and any (note emphasis) western leader presented with the same existential threat would have done exactly the same thing, only it would have been far more extreme and brutal and the loss of innocent civilian lives would have been infinitely greater. The hypocrisy of the west and those that defend them is off the Richter scale.
Tim.
 
You believe wrong. Instead of double guessing what I think, how about providing answers to the specific questions put to you? There's only one reason why you won't do that that I can think: you don't have any.
I did answer your "When did Russia start the war: 24th February 2022?" with the actions Russia did after Russia decided the people of Ukraine shouldn't decide the future of Ukraine.

Totally wrong. Rather than reading how someone else interprets Gorbachev's comments - why not read the actual interview?
Your link has "The topic of “NATO expansion” was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years." So, “NATO will not move one inch further east” was not promised to Gorbachev, and he admitted this when he was no longer a politician. Anyway, countries have to really want to join NATO to become members, so those joining starting in 1999 must have had some reason.😉 And this was years after the fall of the Soviet Union, so it wasn't "just after" Russia granted countries independence.

A joke, you say. What is a joke is that you have to resort to AI to find some vague threats from Russia that are in direct response to actual aggression from the U.K. and Germany respectively. That's really, really scraping the barrel R_L!
Your ad hominem attack brings you to a new low (well, not really 😛). I was planning to answer your question about what threats have come from Russia using a hardcopy of the World Book Encyclopedia until I remembered I can access the Internet. And, FYI, AI is good for finding answers to questions about current events because it has references in addition to answers.


I think now I understand why others have left this thread because it turned into a "mutual admiration society." for Russian propaganda.
 
I did answer your "When did Russia start the war: 24th February 2022?" with the actions Russia did after Russia decided the people of Ukraine shouldn't decide the future of Ukraine.
Okay R_L, let's play it your way. . .
1) When, exactly, did Russia 'decide' the people of Ukraine shouldn't decide the future of Ukraine? Please provide a link to Kremlin documents or to a senior politician making an official statement to this effect.

Your link has "The topic of “NATO expansion” was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years." So, “NATO will not move one inch further east” was not promised to Gorbachev, and he admitted this when he was no longer a politician.
What on earth are you talking about? The link to the Gorbachev interview was in this article that YOU linked to claiming he changed his story when he was no longer a politician. Read the interview: what I say is 100% correct. Gorbachev confirms U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s promise that 'NATO will not expand one inch into the East'.

Anyway, countries have to really want to join NATO to become members, so those joining starting in 1999 must have had some reason.😉 And this was years after the fall of the Soviet Union, so it wasn't "just after" Russia granted countries independence.
1) So, are you saying that having been granted full independence by Russia, that a few years later the former Soviet republics and satellites fear Russia's going to invade them to make them part of Russia again? Consequently, they desperately want to join NATO so the U.S. will protect them from that evil monster Putin? Is that it - is that your argument?
2) If so, is it also your view that the countries that were in NATO at the time did not want to expand, and only reluctantly gave in under relentless pressure from the Baltic states and eastern European countries that wanted to join? In other words, NATO's enlargement is driven not by the U.S. (NATO) wanting to expand eastwards to Russia's borders, but solely by those eastern European countries wanting to join.

Your ad hominem attack brings you to a new low (well, not really 😛). I was planning to answer your question about what threats have come from Russia using a hardcopy of the World Book Encyclopedia until I remembered I can access the Internet. And, FYI, AI is good for finding answers to questions about current events because it has references in addition to answers.
Allow me to provide you with a definition of ad hominem, as it's clear you don't know what it is: an ad hominem attack is an argument or reaction directed against a person rather than the position they are maintaining. I've only ever attacked your argument. Oh, I suppose there is one exception: I said I liked you. Perhaps you viewed that as an ad hominem attack? If so, guilty as charged! 😉

I think now I understand why others have left this thread because it turned into a "mutual admiration society." for Russian propaganda.
The CVs left because their fiction was laid to waste by the mountain of evidence and irrefutable facts (e.g. 'Nato will not move one inch to the east') presented by the realists on my side of the debate. Fair play to you though for hangin' on in here and toughing it out. I keep hoping that one day you'll come up with one or two really solid arguments to support your case that'll cause me to reflect and think the conflict isn't quite as clear cut and black and white as I thought. Sadly, you've provided nothing so far. Still, we live in hope, R_L!

One last question: have you read the open letter by Prof. Sachs and watched the interview with him yet?
Tim.
 
A non-partisan research post - London
---------------------------------------------------
The "fallacy of NATO not one inch to the east" refers to the contentious claim that Western leaders promised Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev NATO wouldn't expand eastward in exchange for German reunification, a promise Russia says was broken, fueling current tensions, particularly concerning Ukraine. However, declassified documents show no formal, binding treaty promise, only verbal assurances by James Baker and others applying specifically to East Germany's territory, not all of Eastern Europe, a distinction lost as the Soviet Union collapsed and NATO expanded, leading to differing interpretations and Russian resentment over perceived betrayal.
The Origins of the Claim (The "Baker-Gorbachev" Exchange)
  • February 9, 1990: U.S. Secretary of State James Baker met Gorbachev, offering assurances that if Germany unified and stayed in NATO, NATO troops and command structures wouldn't move into the former East German territory (GDR).
  • Context: This was to allay Soviet fears of a powerful, reunified Germany within NATO, not a general promise for all of Eastern Europe. German Chancellor Helmut Kohl made similar statements.
The Shift & Expansion
  • Soviet Collapse (1991): With the USSR's dissolution, the geopolitical landscape changed dramatically.
  • New Stance: The U.S. and Western allies decided no European territory should be off-limits, leading to NATO's eastward expansion to include former Warsaw Pact nations starting in 1999.
The "Fallacy" Argument
  • No Binding Promise: Proponents of this view argue that no formal, written treaty committed NATO to non-expansion beyond Germany; the verbal assurances were conditional and context-specific.
  • Gorbachev's Later Stance: Even Gorbachev later acknowledged that NATO enlargement wasn't discussed in detail and that he felt expansion violated the spirit of the 1990 talks, but confirmed no formal deal existed.
  • Moscow's Narrative: Russia uses the "broken promise" narrative to portray itself as a victim of Western deceit, a narrative that frames NATO expansion as a provocation rather than a choice by sovereign nations seeking security.
The Counter-Argument (The "Betrayal" Narrative)
  • "Led to Believe": Documents show Soviet leaders were "led to believe" non-expansion was a real prospect, fostering expectations that were later unmet.
  • Strategic Miscalculation: Many scholars argue that pressing ahead with expansion without addressing Russian security concerns (even if unfounded) damaged post-Cold War cooperation and set the stage for future conflicts, like in Ukraine.
In essence, the "fallacy" lies in the differing interpretations: Was it a binding promise broken, or a conditional assurance that became irrelevant after the Soviet Union's collapse, leading to a strategic divergence?.
 
A non-partisan research post - London
---------------------------------------------------
The phrase "not one inch to the east" refers to a key assurance from U.S. Secretary of State James Baker to Mikhail Gorbachev in February 1990, promising NATO's military jurisdiction wouldn't shift eastward after German unification; while Gorbachev later downplayed it as context-specific (only for former East Germany) and not a formal pact against all enlargement, these verbal assurances, supported by declassified documents, formed a basis for Russian resentment, though no formal treaty limited NATO's overall expansion, notes The Guardian, National Security Archive, and Wikipedia.
Context of the Promise
  • German Reunification: In early 1990, as Germany moved towards unification, Western leaders sought Soviet approval for a united Germany to remain in NATO.
  • Baker's Statement: U.S. Secretary of State James Baker told Gorbachev that if Germany joined NATO, NATO's military presence wouldn't expand "one inch eastward" from its current position, meaning no troops or structures would move into the former East Germany.
  • Gorbachev's Understanding: Gorbachev saw this as a significant assurance, contributing to his agreement, as documented in declassified records.
Aftermath & Debate
  • No Formal Treaty: The "Two Plus Four Treaty" (1990) addressed troop deployment in East Germany but did not legally restrict NATO's overall expansion to other former Warsaw Pact nations.
  • Gorbachev's Later Views: Gorbachev later stated the topic of NATO enlargement wasn't "discussed at all" in those years, viewing Baker's comments as related only to East Germany, though he still considered NATO's later expansion a "big mistake".
  • Russian Grievances: Russia, particularly under Vladimir Putin, has cited these assurances as a broken promise, fueling claims of Western betrayal and justifying actions like the invasion of Ukraine.
Key Takeaway
There was a verbal commitment regarding NATO's posture in East Germany, but no legally binding promise against all eastward expansion was ever formalized in a treaty, leading to differing interpretations and ongoing historical debate.
 

Example Estonia, the other Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia) had the same or a very similar way to join NATO:

Why Estonia Joined NATO​

Estonia pursued NATO membership to secure collective defense against potential aggression, especially after experiencing Soviet occupation. Membership also offered political stability, integration with Western institutions, and access to joint training and interoperability standards.
Estonia was under Soviet occupation from June 1940 (when the USSR forced the establishment of a pro‑Soviet government and subsequently annexed the country) until it regained independence on 20 August 1991, following the failed coup in Moscow and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union. The period includes the initial annexation, the years of Soviet rule, and the brief re‑occupation during World War II (1941‑1944) when Nazi Germany controlled the territory before the Soviets retook it.

When Estonia Joined​

  • Application submitted: 1997
  • Invitation to join (Madrid Summit): 2002
  • Accession treaty signed: 26 March 2004
  • Officially became a NATO member: 29 March 2004
The accession coincided with the NATO enlargement that also brought Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Latvia into the alliance.

Boris Yeltsin was the President of Russia in 1997.
Bill Clinton was the President of the United States in 1997.
Vladimir Putin first became President of Russia on 31 December 1999, succeeding Boris Yeltsin.

Two major wars were initiated during George W. Bush’s presidency:
ConflictStart dateU.S. involvement initiated by
War in Afghanistan7 Oct 2001 (Operation Enduring Freedom)George W. Bush administration’s response to the 9/11 attacks
Iraq War20 Mar 2003 (Operation Iraqi Freedom)George W. Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq

George W. Bush’s presidency was guided primarily by:

The Bush Doctrine (Foreign‑Policy Agenda)​

A set of principles that shaped U.S. international actions, especially after the September 11, 2001 attacks:
PrincipleDescription
Pre‑emptive warThe U.S. reserves the right to act militarily against perceived threats before they fully materialize (e.g., Iraq).
Unilateralism when necessaryWillingness to act without broad international consensus if U.S. security is at stake.
Promotion of "democracy"Using military and diplomatic tools to spread democratic governance, particularly in the Middle East.
Strong global counter‑terrorismBuilding extensive intelligence, special‑operations, and coalition networks to combat terrorist groups.

NATO Enlargement – 2004 Membership​

CountryDate of accession
Bulgaria29 March 2004
Estonia29 March 2004
Latvia29 March 2004
Lithuania29 March 2004
Romania29 March 2004
Slovakia29 March 2004
Slovenia29 March 2004


(Generated with GPT-OSS 120B in duck.ai by asking the right questions.)
 
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