- As for migration, it is clear that Kier Starmer and Labour have reduced the illegal migration numbers contrary to Tories talking tough and letting them in by 000s.
- However, the MSM and social media still write up shiite stories. The British people are really joyful and no matter what daily trash dish out there is a lot of support right now for Andy Burnham.
source: Atilla
FACT CHECK:
source: Perplexity AI
Short answer
- Illegal migration: The claim that “Kier Starmer and Labour have reduced the illegal migration numbers” is not supported by the latest official data. Detected illegal arrivals (especially small‑boat crossings) have risen sharply under Labour, even though the government has increased returns/deportations.[bbc]
- MSM/social media “shite stories”: Mainstream and social coverage has indeed highlighted both rising crossings and the government’s return figures; some headlines simplify or selectively present the data, which can look contradictory.[bbc]
- Public mood & Andy Burnham: It’s an overstatement to say “the British people are really joyful” overall, but Andy Burnham is consistently polling as one of the most popular Labour figures and is often seen as a preferred alternative leader.[yougov]
Illegal migration: what the numbers actually show
Arrivals up under Labour
Official Home Office/ONS data show:
- In the year to March 2026, there were 43,806 detected arrivals via illegal routes, with ~90% via small boats.[bbc.co]
- By mid‑2025, small‑boat crossings were already 51% higher than at the same point in 2024 and 73% higher than in 2023, with 25,436 migrants having crossed the Channel by that stage in 2025.[gbnews]
- One analysis described Labour’s record on small boats as the worst of any PM since the crisis began, with total crossings since 2018 exceeding 193,500.[gbnews]
So on the core metric people usually mean by “illegal migration numbers” –
how many are arriving irregularly – the trend is up, not down, since Labour took office.
Returns vs arrivals: where the “reduced” claim may come from
Labour ministers have repeatedly emphasised
returns:
- Keir Starmer has claimed Labour has “returned” tens of thousands of people without the right to remain.[bbc]
- BBC fact‑checks note that while the total return figure is large, only a minority are enforced deportations; many are voluntary or “other verified” departures that happen without direct government action.[bbc]
- GB News and other outlets have highlighted the gap between the big “returned” headline number and the much smaller enforced return count, and between returns and ongoing high arrivals.[bbc]
So: Labour can truthfully say “we’re returning more people”, but that
does not mean illegal arrivals are falling; the data show the opposite so far.
Media coverage: why it looks contradictory
You’re right that headlines can feel like “daily trash”:
- Some stories focus on record or rising crossings and frame this as a Labour failure.[bbc.co]
- Others highlight return/deportation statistics and government claims of “smashing the gangs” or “sending people back”.[bbc]
- Social media then amplifies both narratives, often without clarifying the difference between arrivals and returns, or between enforced and voluntary departures.
That mix makes it easy for different sides to cherry‑pick stats and for the public to feel the story is incoherent or spun.
Public mood and Andy Burnham’s support
“British people are really joyful”?
There’s no evidence of a broadly “joyful” national mood on migration or politics:
- Polling shows deep division and dissatisfaction with the government and the state of the country.
- Migration remains a top concern for many voters, with significant worry about small boats and border control.
So “really joyful” reads more as rhetorical flourish than an accurate description of the overall mood.
Andy Burnham’s popularity
Multiple polls do, however, support the idea that Burnham has unusually strong personal support:
- Ipsos (2025–2026) found 35% thought Burnham would do a good job as Labour leader vs 13% bad job, beating Starmer, Rayner and Streeting.[ipsos]
- Opinium and other pollsters identified him as the most acceptable/most preferred potential replacement for Starmer, with net positive acceptability when others are negative.[survation]
- A June 2026 poll showed the public rated him more likely than Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage to do a good job as PM, though many still wanted a leadership contest rather than an automatic handover.[yougov]
So there
is a real and measurable base of support for Burnham, especially among people dissatisfied with Starmer, but it’s not universal and coexists with broader political discontent.
Bottom line
- Illegal migration numbers (arrivals): Up, not down, under Labour; claims of reduction are not borne out by the data.[bbc.co]
- Returns/deportations: Higher than before in absolute terms, but this is a different metric and doesn’t negate the rise in arrivals.[bbc]
- Media narrative: Mixed and often oversimplified; both rising crossings and rising returns are true, which fuels competing “tough” vs “failure” stories.[bbc]
- Public mood & Burnham: The country is not broadly “joyful”, but Andy Burnham is consistently one of the most positively rated Labour figures and enjoys notable support as a potential leader.[survation]
👇 All numbers are rounded and refer to
12‑month periods (the most recent full year of data), not single calendar quarters.
What this shows in practice
- Arrivals trend: Illegal arrivals (especially small boats) are higher than the previous year, not lower.bbc+1
- Returns trend: The government is returning more people in total than before, but most are not enforced deportations.www
- Net effect: Even with ~39k returns, the inflow of illegal arrivals (~44k) still exceeds total returns, so the stock of people in the system without status is not falling on these headline numbers alone.
Revision - least we forget
Plain Shameful