UK house prices

Jack,
"now prices are starting to stabilise "...I think you will accept that if that assumption does not hold then your following statement will not hold either...personally I would be very reluctant to try to forecast what comes next unless that is you have the chief seat in the BOE and or you know what is likely to happen to tax after the next election ? or you can guarantee we will not get an International issue that 'kills' confidence...The demand side is clearly waning from the bottom up which might not be an outright killer of demand ,but combine that with anything that might impact on DISPOSABLE income and or confidence (this is the unknown) and the result could be more significant than simply price sidestepping......however, I take your point that at this moment I don't detect signs of panic..

Tony, new build housing is supplyside , but that is definitely not the market , just one part of it , demand for those houses is another part of the equation....remember WILLING and ABLE....
edit..actually my fault...my explanation was a clear as mud
 
Last edited:
Today,
"Estate agent's profit warning

Estate agency group Countrywide provided further evidence of a cooling in the housing market as it warned annual results would be below current expectations."



and Priming the pump....


Nimbys will cause years of housing shortfalls, says Barratt
By Aaron Patrick (Filed: 23/09/2004)


Nimbys, conservationists and heritage advocates will leave Britain unable to fulfill its housing needs for the foreseeable future, according to the nation's biggest home builder.



Barratt Developments yesterday painted a gloomy picture for many people in the United Kingdom hoping to buy new houses despite a surplus of land. Proposals to reduce development approval delays are stalled ahead of next year's general election, it said, leaving the UK with an estimated shortfall of 80,000 to 130,000 houses a year.
 
Yes the nimby mob are a real problem.

I still say that's it an absolute disgrace that young people/couples in many areas cannot even afford a starter home.
 
What are the issues and proceedure with planning permission for new developments at the moment?

I was under the impression that farmers fields, countryside etc. is greenbelt land and cannot be built upon - not a bad policy in my opinion - as this would stop the UK becoming one BIG sprawling city. However, does this mean that the only places where new houses can be built are in/on areas of land that have already been developed?

Cheers

jtrader.
 
JT,
There (as usual) is a bit more to it than that..outside of various interest groups including the Nimbys there is politics ,national and local....dept's wishing to regenerate areas by encouraging builders to build on Brown sites rather Green...again dept's trying to mess with the market by encouraging builders to meet certain pricng requirements on some developments to accommodate local needs (stop locals getting priced out)..,but this has been going on for ages and I don't know it is much worse now than it has been....as I was intimating above I think builders also use this rational to meet theirown needs....you see after reading that article wouldn't you be more inclined to go out and buy NOW rather than sit and wait for a more opportune moment ?...if you thought the market was turning wouldn't you want to 'scare' as many people off the fence now to soak up as much of your current in-build program ? whilst you surreptiously adjust you new starts that are in the pipeline.....wouldn't you wish to be able to tell sharholders next year..look it isn't our fault turnover is flagging blame it on the Nimbys and planners ?.....this may sound somewhat cynical ,but I believe when your read articles like this you should at least have one eye on the motivation of the person generating the article ;)

Cheers
 
Originally posted by jacketspud
The house price rises have just been unstainable, which is why things are now starting to slow down as incomes are not rising in line with house prices. Prices will rise at a more reasonable rate of between 1-5% a year rather than the 15%+ per year they have been rising at.

Well thats my theory any way.....
Click to expand...

I heard on the news the other day that one in five homeowners are now struggling to pay their mortgage due to interest rate increases over the last year or so. And, one in ten homeowners would look to sell their house if interests rates were to increase much further?

With my limites knowledge of the housing market, I would have thought that If homeowners are in a position where they need to sell their home in order to manage their debt, wouldn't the sellers ability/resolve to demand top dollar/market value be reduced? eg. house is worth £95k but we do need to sell it to control our debt - so we will accept 90k?................Is this a significant factor in why house prices (like all markets) peak and then begin to fall - as potential buyers hold the upper hand with more power to negotiate than the keen to sell seller?................and surely this is a valid reason why this housing boom cycle should be little different to any previous housing boom cycle?

Cheers :)

jtrader.
 
Today,

"The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister has played a leading role in driving up the cost of building new houses since 1997, the year Labour came to power. The full list of increases includes new regulations, planning constraints, skills shortages and inefficient housebuilding methods, and the first two fall squarely on Mr Prescott's broad shoulders.

Yet speaking before addressing the National Housing Federation in Birmingham on Wednesday, Mr Prescott said: "Why does it cost so much to build bloody houses in this country?"

You'll probaby recall,as I do, being at school, how when the rest of us were doing trigonometry the 'Prescott's' in the class were shunted into the corner and given a lump of plasticine to play with so I guess we should expect questions like the one above ;) ...hey here's another question....can the deputy prime minister tell us how a politician on a relatively modest income come's to the point of having his asset worth ;) ... and maybe how someone with such vocal socialist values seems to have kept it all for himself ;) apart that is from the sum he paid out to take boxing lessons ;)
 
Thanks chump -

for the link to the five day weather forecast :confused:

Is this a simile for saying that just like with the weather forecasts, experts aren't able to accurately forecast what will happen with the housing market, can at best guess what will happen, and often are wrong? ;)

Cheers

jtrader.
 
My flat conversion cost me an extra £5k to meet the new part E sound insulation /accoustic and impact testing. The testing cost another £900. That goes straight on top of the purchasers price.What a con.
 
jtrader said:
Thanks chump -

for the link to the five day weather forecast :confused:

Is this a simile for saying that just like with the weather forecasts, experts aren't able to accurately forecast what will happen with the housing market, can at best guess what will happen, and often are wrong? ;)
Click to expand...
..or maybe he's saying, it might be raining today, but, the sun'll be out tomorrow, tomorrow?

This could start a new trend in using metaphors...
 
Well I am of course that profound...really !...but in this case I was sat watching the rain from the office thinking what could make me sell up and before you know it I pulled up a couple of weather charts....LOL

CM...nice example...now bring in the rest of the bureacratic meddling to the mix and you might start to understand why you don't see builds below certain price levels anymore...it's also why I see a higher longrun price support level than perhaps some other people do..

Cheers
 
Let's not forget the much mooted to be SELLERS PACK ....cost estimated ... is it approx £600 on average ? ...payable by the vendor ... and what do you think the vendor will do with that cost ? Lifespan, is it 3 months and repeatable if the sale does not complete on each occasion ? LOL .....
 
Touching on the issue of costs as we were above...here is the historic formula for building....1/3rd...1/3rd...1/3rd....

That is , 1/3rd for land....1/3rd to build...1/3rd for the dirty stuff you are not entitled to..

So who thinks land is getting cheaper ? Any yesses please point me in the relevant direction

Build costs..well there have been some changes to methodology over the years to shave these, but on balance they have fought a losing battle against the rising cost of labour and regulatory costs..

Profits..well builders have been getting happier in this segment in the recent past so this is where any correction moves are going to have to come from short of some technological miracle...but look at the formula for context

The formula is rough and ready ,but close enough for this excercise...

Cheers
 
For people who want to upgrade their houses, ie move from a 2 bed to a 4 bed etc, you should all be praying for a property crash.

This is what's so laughable for most people who own property, they think it's absolutely great that the house they bought for £100k is now worth £200k. But then the house they want to upgrade to that once cost £200k is now worth £400k.

So with zero house price inflation it would only cost them £100k to upgrade but with rampant inflation it's going to cost them double. even though they all feel 'clever' at how much money they've made.

Of course for older people who want to downgrade, perhaps the children have left home etc, massive house price inflation does them the world of good.

So for anyone out there in a well paid and secure job pray for a crash as soon as possible. Also state that to your friends down at the pub and laugh as most of them think you're crazy............
 
Re post 94.....hey presto.....here's one I didn't prepare earlier....todays Telegraph...

"In an effort to lure first-time buyers back into the market, Bellway, a leading housebuilder, yesterday said buyers need pay only 75 per cent of the price on new homes.

The remaining 25 per cent would become payable upon selling the house, or remortgaging".

..and yes said the builders you'd be surprised how may different ways we can come up with to manage down the numbers in our in process build pipeline... ;) ...this really isn't selling your future income stupidly is it ?

Cheers
 
Well now..interest rates held..more views turning to rates holding for the rest of this year and maybe the early part of next year..so what might happen to people's spending habits and indeed perception if they are given 6 to 9 months of rate inactivity ? If that then takes us through to early Spring when people get the migratory instinct to move what might we expect , or what might we be looking for ? Just some thoughts.....
 
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