Turning points

Joe Ross

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To the best of my knowledge, no one has ever figured out a truly accurate way to figure out future turning points. As far as I know, it has never been done. I don't believe that it will ever be done.

I have encountered traders who have told me that so-and-so does it, but I have never seen the proof. Nevertheless, I’m willing to listen. I used to live in the “show-me” State of Missouri, so show me!

When it comes to the future, I believe that man has no absolutes. The best he can do is to determine statistically the probabilities of the occurrence of an event. But statistics are not sufficiently exact for trading without a complimentary management system that takes into account the aberrations that are bound to occur. I mentioned a few of those in previous newsletters. Here are a few more: What do you do about flood, drought, pest invasions, earthquakes, hurricanes, ice storms, tornados, volcanic eruptions, revolutions, and other phenomenon that all can push prices and market action to the extreme limits of the bell curve? What do you do when farmers decide to hold back their crops, or ranchers decide to hold over their livestock for higher prices? That's where management comes into play. However, even the best management cannot compensate for bad fills caused by crooked players, slow turnaround, bad data, fast market conditions, illiquidity, electronic failures, system failures, poor back office accounting, or a bunch of crazies flying airplanes into the former World Trade Center.

As long as you chase the idea of perfecting your trading along the lines of predicting what will happen, you are consigning yourself to failure. The best you can do is to manage your trading along the lines of what is likely to happen, and then make your best effort from there, using your human brain and your human intuition. Those are really all we have to work with.
 
What a crock of pointless sh|te....


What a crock of pointless spam!

56840d1242573934t-commitment-joespam.jpg
 
I actually quite like spam...(working-class Brit)

Love the pic. LOL.

It's a pity the Ross-bot doesn't ever come back to read any of the responses to the crap it posts....

Mods, can we ban him on health & safety grounds? His posts make mwe want to kill....
 
I actually quite like spam...(working-class Brit)

Love the pic. LOL.

It's a pity the Ross-bot doesn't ever come back to read any of the responses to the crap it posts....

Mods, can we ban him on health & safety grounds? His posts make mwe want to kill....

I thought it was a bot initally, but its a person and he does reply sometimes.
Trade2win has given him a coach trainer badge icon so maybe he pays to advertise here and it isnt spam?

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...ing-family-support-post724204.html#post724204
 
I thought it was a bot initally, but its a person and he does reply sometimes.
Trade2win has given him a coach trainer badge icon so maybe he pays to advertise here and it isnt spam?
Ahh..well, that's OK then, isn't it.

When he replies, does it make any more sense then his surreaal BS bot-posts?
 
Joe! Don't run away again. Please, tell me, just what was the point of your post? Your first one on this thread.

Just a bunch of random generalisations that are of no bloody use to anyone.

Don't get me wrong - there's plenty of room for random BS and crap as I generate most of it myself, but at least it doesn't masquerade as something other.

Seriously, in one sentence, what was your post about and what was its purpose? (OK, maybe two sentences then…)
 
Joe! Don't run away again. Please, tell me, just what was the point of your post? Your first one on this thread.

Just a bunch of random generalisations that are of no bloody use to anyone.

Don't get me wrong - there's plenty of room for random BS and crap as I generate most of it myself, but at least it doesn't masquerade as something other.

Seriously, in one sentence, what was your post about and what was its purpose? (OK, maybe two sentences then…)


You must have given him a direct one on the...
well a hook
he is out
 
Joe! Don't run away again. Please, tell me, just what was the point of your post? Your first one on this thread.

Just a bunch of random generalisations that are of no bloody use to anyone.

Don't get me wrong - there's plenty of room for random BS and crap as I generate most of it myself, but at least it doesn't masquerade as something other.

Seriously, in one sentence, what was your post about and what was its purpose? (OK, maybe two sentences then…)

If you don't like it you don't have to read it. Peace.
 
Hot Air

Joe! Don't run away again. Please, tell me, just what was the point of your post? Your first one on this thread.

Just a bunch of random generalisations that are of no bloody use to anyone.

Don't get me wrong - there's plenty of room for random BS and crap as I generate most of it myself, but at least it doesn't masquerade as something other.

Seriously, in one sentence, what was your post about and what was its purpose? (OK, maybe two sentences then…)

It's about gaining publicity for his various publications on his web site. Many vendors use the method of posting generalisations as a bait to hook prospective purchasors of their trading publications. Nothing wrong with this just be aware that to get anything instructive and useful one has to buy the vendors publication. ;)
 
Joe, how do I know if it’s useful or not without reading it? Is that a trick you explain in vague and general terms in next month’s sermon?

The thing is, you don’t participate in this site. You dump your stuff and heave off again like it’s some favour to us all.

I’ll précis your post for you as you seem unwilling or unable to do so.

“The best you can do is the best you can do”. Joe Ross.

Thanks mate. That’s helped a lot.
 
Turning Points

Joe! Don't run away again. Please, tell me, just what was the point of your post? Your first one on this thread.

Just a bunch of random generalisations that are of no bloody use to anyone.

Don't get me wrong - there's plenty of room for random BS and crap as I generate most of it myself, but at least it doesn't masquerade as something other.

Seriously, in one sentence, what was your post about and what was its purpose? (OK, maybe two sentences then…)

Sorry, but I needed 3 sentences :LOL:

To the best of my knowledge, no one has ever figured out a truly accurate way to figure out future turning points. As far as I know, it has never been done. I don't believe that it will ever be done.
 
One way of identifying turning points is usuing market depth/order flow... If a level above price has a large depth, much larger than average and price touches the level without the size being removed then its likely this will be a temporary market top for a potential scalp... Which could be confirmed through Time and Sales, whereby if the type of trades coming @ the ask where relatively small/amateurs without any proffesional lot size then that would give further high probability that it was a turning point.... Furthermore in the run up to the level, in general time and sales had high volume trades @ the bid then proffesionals were creating their short positions or possibly exiting their buys in fear that the resistance will prove strong ;) That would further support the instance.
Another supportive element then would be if the resistance level corresponded with a specific level on the chart that you had considered important, furthermore adding validitity to the chance that the order is real and from multiple users (less likely to be faded) and generally considered strong resistance...
Then! If a tick-chart showed that when price touched the resistance level, volume was actually pretty low compared to previous tick-bars, representing that the average trade size was low over x amount of trades, that would give even bigger reasoning to the play!

Overall i've found it pretty effective...

Another way of identifying high and lows is to research through markets that have particularly high 5-minute volume on the touch of pivot levels, then you know these levels provide particularly strong resistance and can consistantly be considered strong levels of temporary turning points, if this was further backed through the order flow i was earlier talking about then... I would say you had a very, very good way of identifying a high.

Not that anything i say has any credibility after my previous posts :D :D haha
 
Sorry, but I needed 3 sentences :LOL:

To the best of my knowledge, no one has ever figured out a truly accurate way to figure out future turning points. As far as I know, it has never been done. I don't believe that it will ever be done.

So to summarise your post -

'No1 can identify turning points and they never will' Byes.
 
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