Dentalfloss
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EDax into the open
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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- trend is up...range is tight
- nowt else
Dentalfloss
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OIL
could be a few people gettin nervous
could be a few people gettin nervous
Dentalfloss
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oil in a potential bull flag
$53.00 support on pullback needed for the bulls
$53.00 support on pullback needed for the bulls
Dentalfloss
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OIL over the last week downtrend broken..now in an uptrend run into rez and pulled back
Dentalfloss
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Dax in support
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Dax poss on another fake
Dentalfloss
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fake above yellow
now on a new break/without support as yet
CARE
now on a new break/without support as yet
CARE
Dentalfloss
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Dax last 48 hours
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 14 June 2019 - ADM ISI
- Digesting largely disappointing China activity indicators, awaiting US
Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Michigan Confidence, Italy Industry
Orders; mulling Sea of Oman tanker attacks; ECB speakers and Russia rate
decision
- China: Retail Sales the only bright spot; FAI still seeing only modest
boost from infrastructure spending boost; Industrial Production growth
at 17 year low
- Russia: rate cut heavily discounted and signalled, set to retain easing
bias, but emphasize fiscal stimulus key to growth pick-up
- US Retail Sales: auto sales expected to pace bounce from soft April,
gasoline prices to weigh a little on core sales; hoping for housing
related boost in coming months after Mortgage Applications surge
- US Industrial Production: consensus looking for modest bounce after
weak April; freight and trade indicators imply some downside risks
- Charts: Brent and WTI Crude Oil futures
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-14-june-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While markets remain very much hostage to trade-related and political events, as well as being fixated on the key event risks over the next fortnight (FOMC 19 June, G20 28/29 June), today has a good deal of premier league statistics from the US and China, with Swedish CPI, Italian Orders and Canada's Existing Home Sales thrown in for good measure. Russia's central bank is seen cutting rates 25 bps to 7.50%, and there is some central bank speak from ECB's Lautenschlaeger & Enria, and BoE's Carney. As for that first round of the UK Tory party leadership vote, Johnson's lead was so large that it is now really a case of the contest being his to lose with some of his buffoonery. But, as with Donald Trump, his strong support among the rank and file Conservative party membership is largely unquestioning and impervious to pretty much anything that is thrown at him, or his gaffe prone behaviour. The reality is whoever wins, the EU's position on the withdrawal agreement will not shift, therefore it is time to prepare for a hard Brexit, and the only question then is whether Mr Johnson will really renege on the £39 Bln EU liability settlement, as he has hinted. Given the adverse global economic backdrop, this is not exactly the most propitious moment for a leap into the unknown, to put it mildly ... but it will be whatever it is! (Out of curiosity, it would be nice to know whom Jo Johnson voted for ...LOL). As for the weak ahead, the FOMC meeting is the stand out event, though the BoJ and BoE will also meet, and there is plenty of chatter that China's PBOC is close to easing policy further. Statistically the UK has inflation data, Retail Sales and PSNB, the US looks to a raft of housing indicators and the NY/Philly Fed surveys and the G7 has flash PMIs and other surveys, with CPI also due in Canada, as Japan looks to its Trade Balance and national CPI.
** China - May FAI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Unemployment **
- (also listen to audio). In brief the positive element was clearly the sharper than expected recovery in Retail Sales, though there will be some questions about how much of this pick-up was due to food price inflation, but it is nevertheless a welcome and marked improvement. On the other hand, the soft Fixed Asset Investment which slowed to 5.6% y.t.d. vs. expected and prior 6.1%, leaving growth close to the low point of 2018 (5.3%) suggests that Public Sector FAI is not picking up sufficiently quickly (7.2% y/y from prior 7.9%) to offset slowing Private Sector FAI (5.3% vs. prior 5.5%). This in turn probably accounts for some of the continued weakness in Industrial Production which slowed to 5.0% y/y, against expectations of an unchanged 5.4%, and marks the weakest pace of production growth since 2002, with weakness in Electricity Output (0.2% y/y) seeing overall Power Supply growth dropping to 5.9% y/y.
** U.S.A. - May Retail Sales & Industrial Production **
- April's Retail Sales made for a disappointing start for Q2, but May is expected to see a solid 0.7% m/m headline rebound, led by those stronger than expected Auto Sales, but core measures are also likely to see a solid 0.4% m/m gain, despite a price led drag from gasoline sales. There could be some additional drags from prices given the weaker than expected CPI data (which was primarily due to household energy exacerbating the drag from gasoline and autos, with overall goods inflation broadly weak, outside of food). The hope going forward is that housing related spending should get a boost from the recent surge in MBA mortgage applications (up 26.8% in this week's report, and more than 10% y/y) on the back of the sharp fall in mortgage rates. As for Industrial Production, the Manufacturing Payrolls and Average Hours components of the labour data fit well Iith expectations of a modest 0.2% m/m rebound, after a sharper than expected 0.5% m/m setback in April, with Manufacturing Output also seen up 0.2% m/m, with much possibly depending on whether the strong auto sales prompted any pick up in output. On the other hand there is a justifiable concern that the trade war with China is taking a hefty toll, as a number of sector surveys have suggested. Notably it has been reported that inbound loaded containers at the major ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach, (the main gateway for Asia Pacific seaborne trade), fell 6.3% y/y in May, with the ports handling 48.3K fewer loaded import containers, while exports from the two ports also fell 7.4% y/y, and this also fits with data showing road and rail haulage volumes dropping.
** Russia - Bank Rossi rate decision **
- The consensus is in no doubt that Bank Rossi will cut rates 25bps today to 7.50%, above all following the comments from governor Nabiullina at last week's St Petersburg Forum, in which she noted that rates were now 'above neutral', and that the boost to inflation from the sales tax and 2018 RUB weakness was already starting to fade. But as she went on to add, an easing of monetary without much-needed structural reforms right now would not boost economic growth and could in fact increase risks to financial stability and inflation. She also appeared to pre-empt criticism of the consequences of her drive to clean up the Russian banking sector, by Economy Minister Oreshkin, which has seen a number of banks partly or wholly owned by the central bank, in so far as she noted that new ways to put these banks back in private sector hands were needed. That may in fact prove to be the more significant component to watch out for in her post policy meeting press conference.
| 08:46 (28 minutes ago) |
|
- Digesting largely disappointing China activity indicators, awaiting US
Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Michigan Confidence, Italy Industry
Orders; mulling Sea of Oman tanker attacks; ECB speakers and Russia rate
decision
- China: Retail Sales the only bright spot; FAI still seeing only modest
boost from infrastructure spending boost; Industrial Production growth
at 17 year low
- Russia: rate cut heavily discounted and signalled, set to retain easing
bias, but emphasize fiscal stimulus key to growth pick-up
- US Retail Sales: auto sales expected to pace bounce from soft April,
gasoline prices to weigh a little on core sales; hoping for housing
related boost in coming months after Mortgage Applications surge
- US Industrial Production: consensus looking for modest bounce after
weak April; freight and trade indicators imply some downside risks
- Charts: Brent and WTI Crude Oil futures
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-14-june-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
While markets remain very much hostage to trade-related and political events, as well as being fixated on the key event risks over the next fortnight (FOMC 19 June, G20 28/29 June), today has a good deal of premier league statistics from the US and China, with Swedish CPI, Italian Orders and Canada's Existing Home Sales thrown in for good measure. Russia's central bank is seen cutting rates 25 bps to 7.50%, and there is some central bank speak from ECB's Lautenschlaeger & Enria, and BoE's Carney. As for that first round of the UK Tory party leadership vote, Johnson's lead was so large that it is now really a case of the contest being his to lose with some of his buffoonery. But, as with Donald Trump, his strong support among the rank and file Conservative party membership is largely unquestioning and impervious to pretty much anything that is thrown at him, or his gaffe prone behaviour. The reality is whoever wins, the EU's position on the withdrawal agreement will not shift, therefore it is time to prepare for a hard Brexit, and the only question then is whether Mr Johnson will really renege on the £39 Bln EU liability settlement, as he has hinted. Given the adverse global economic backdrop, this is not exactly the most propitious moment for a leap into the unknown, to put it mildly ... but it will be whatever it is! (Out of curiosity, it would be nice to know whom Jo Johnson voted for ...LOL). As for the weak ahead, the FOMC meeting is the stand out event, though the BoJ and BoE will also meet, and there is plenty of chatter that China's PBOC is close to easing policy further. Statistically the UK has inflation data, Retail Sales and PSNB, the US looks to a raft of housing indicators and the NY/Philly Fed surveys and the G7 has flash PMIs and other surveys, with CPI also due in Canada, as Japan looks to its Trade Balance and national CPI.
** China - May FAI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Unemployment **
- (also listen to audio). In brief the positive element was clearly the sharper than expected recovery in Retail Sales, though there will be some questions about how much of this pick-up was due to food price inflation, but it is nevertheless a welcome and marked improvement. On the other hand, the soft Fixed Asset Investment which slowed to 5.6% y.t.d. vs. expected and prior 6.1%, leaving growth close to the low point of 2018 (5.3%) suggests that Public Sector FAI is not picking up sufficiently quickly (7.2% y/y from prior 7.9%) to offset slowing Private Sector FAI (5.3% vs. prior 5.5%). This in turn probably accounts for some of the continued weakness in Industrial Production which slowed to 5.0% y/y, against expectations of an unchanged 5.4%, and marks the weakest pace of production growth since 2002, with weakness in Electricity Output (0.2% y/y) seeing overall Power Supply growth dropping to 5.9% y/y.
** U.S.A. - May Retail Sales & Industrial Production **
- April's Retail Sales made for a disappointing start for Q2, but May is expected to see a solid 0.7% m/m headline rebound, led by those stronger than expected Auto Sales, but core measures are also likely to see a solid 0.4% m/m gain, despite a price led drag from gasoline sales. There could be some additional drags from prices given the weaker than expected CPI data (which was primarily due to household energy exacerbating the drag from gasoline and autos, with overall goods inflation broadly weak, outside of food). The hope going forward is that housing related spending should get a boost from the recent surge in MBA mortgage applications (up 26.8% in this week's report, and more than 10% y/y) on the back of the sharp fall in mortgage rates. As for Industrial Production, the Manufacturing Payrolls and Average Hours components of the labour data fit well Iith expectations of a modest 0.2% m/m rebound, after a sharper than expected 0.5% m/m setback in April, with Manufacturing Output also seen up 0.2% m/m, with much possibly depending on whether the strong auto sales prompted any pick up in output. On the other hand there is a justifiable concern that the trade war with China is taking a hefty toll, as a number of sector surveys have suggested. Notably it has been reported that inbound loaded containers at the major ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach, (the main gateway for Asia Pacific seaborne trade), fell 6.3% y/y in May, with the ports handling 48.3K fewer loaded import containers, while exports from the two ports also fell 7.4% y/y, and this also fits with data showing road and rail haulage volumes dropping.
** Russia - Bank Rossi rate decision **
- The consensus is in no doubt that Bank Rossi will cut rates 25bps today to 7.50%, above all following the comments from governor Nabiullina at last week's St Petersburg Forum, in which she noted that rates were now 'above neutral', and that the boost to inflation from the sales tax and 2018 RUB weakness was already starting to fade. But as she went on to add, an easing of monetary without much-needed structural reforms right now would not boost economic growth and could in fact increase risks to financial stability and inflation. She also appeared to pre-empt criticism of the consequences of her drive to clean up the Russian banking sector, by Economy Minister Oreshkin, which has seen a number of banks partly or wholly owned by the central bank, in so far as she noted that new ways to put these banks back in private sector hands were needed. That may in fact prove to be the more significant component to watch out for in her post policy meeting press conference.
Dentalfloss
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Dax
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OIL
Dentalfloss
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Dow into the open
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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25950 supp area
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FWIW via Le Fonti, Investing Channel & Core London - thoughts on FOMC meeting, UK & geo-politics, Oil and markets, and the Week Ahead.... and upcoming conferences
a) Le Fonti interview
b) Investing Channel (Fed preview) -
c) The Week Ahead -
Heads up for
1) Monday 17th June - listen into the "N@ked Short Club":
"Live from El Muro Del Presidente Loco in El Casiero Del Diablo in Texas border country on Monday, June 17 from 9-10pm on Resonance FM: 104.4FM within London, on Digital/ DAB in London, Brighton and the English South Coast and also accessible worldwide via www.resonancefm.com ."
2) Tuesday 18th June
ADM UK - "Feeding Your Food Business 2019" (see the attached flier)
3) Monday 1st July - I will be on the macro panel at
Typhon Capital Management's "London- Tactical Trading Investor Forum"
https://www.f4.events/events/9793/
4) Tuesday 2nd July - I will be on the macro panel at
The GAIM Conference https://finance.knect365.com/gaim/agenda/1
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
| Inbox | x |
| 14:50 (1 hour ago) |
|
a) Le Fonti interview
b) Investing Channel (Fed preview) -
c) The Week Ahead -
Heads up for
1) Monday 17th June - listen into the "N@ked Short Club":
"Live from El Muro Del Presidente Loco in El Casiero Del Diablo in Texas border country on Monday, June 17 from 9-10pm on Resonance FM: 104.4FM within London, on Digital/ DAB in London, Brighton and the English South Coast and also accessible worldwide via www.resonancefm.com ."
2) Tuesday 18th June
ADM UK - "Feeding Your Food Business 2019" (see the attached flier)
3) Monday 1st July - I will be on the macro panel at
Typhon Capital Management's "London- Tactical Trading Investor Forum"
https://www.f4.events/events/9793/
4) Tuesday 2nd July - I will be on the macro panel at
The GAIM Conference https://finance.knect365.com/gaim/agenda/1
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
Dentalfloss
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Dow
poss trend break
poss trend break
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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OIL updated
Dentalfloss
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