Dentalfloss
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Yes sir
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Stops tight
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ 
💋💋💋
💋💋💋
Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 24 May 2019 - ADM ISI
- Modest run of data to focus on UK Retail Sales, CBI Retail survey ahead
of US Durable Goods as UK and US look to long holiday weekend; Nowotny
the only central bank speaker of note; politics and trade still front
and centre; UK PM seen expected to announce resignation
- UK Retail Sales: expected to drop modestly after 3 consecutive gains,
Easter related spending seen offering prop, but risks downside
- US Durable Goods: headline seen dropping back after March jump, Boeing
737MAX a major wildcard; core orders seen easing after solid Q1 run
- EU Parliament elections: Dutch exit poll suggests anti-EU party trailing
in third behind opposition Labour and PM Rutte's conservatives; Italy
result expected to boost Salvini's Lega, and raising coalition tensions
- Charts: IMF charts on US/China imports of tariffed goods; USD/CNY and
China-Hong Connect equity flows
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
UK Retail Sales and US Durable Goods Orders top the day's data and events schedule, with both countries looking forward to a long weekend due to holidays on Monday. Outside of these there are the national CPI readings from Japan to digest, while ahead lie the UK CBI Distributive and Retail Trades surveys and final Q1 GDP from Mexico, along with a speech from ECB's Nowotny. Eminently the UK's political dramatics and in the US the renewed focus on Trump's finances amid impeachment chatter (above all with reference to alleged obstruction of justice) will be further points of focus, but barring any snippets on these and/or US/China trade, the week could end with something of a whimper. On the political front, exit polls for the Dutch European Parliament elections suggest a surprise win for the Labour Party with PM Rutte's party in second, with the anti-EU Forum for Democracy only managing third place. Elsewhere the key point of focus will be Italy, where Salvini's League is expected to win up to 30% or more of the vote, and M5S to be at least 10 points behind, leading some to speculate how long the current coalition may last, perhaps the more so given Salvini's comments today that he expects the coalition to get on with implementing key elements of Lega's agenda, as of next week.
** U.K. - April Retail Sales **
- Expectations of a -0.3% m/m for headline and -0.5% m/m for ex-petrol Retail Sales are primarily predicated on the quite unusual phenomenon of Sales having risen in m/m terms for three straight months (the last time was June through August 2017), and per se assumes a reactive correction. Personal Consumption was of course the primary driver of Q1 GDP, and if forecasts are correct will likely make a much smaller contribution to Q2. It should be added that were it not for this year's 'late' Easter and expectations that this should act as a prop, forecasts would probably be discounting a rather larger setback, which may still happen given that this remains a highly erratic series.
** U.S.A. - April Durable Goods Orders **
- Yesterday's data and survey news flow seeing sharp falls in both PMIs, with the Manufacturing PMI at a nearly 10-yr low of 50.6 vs. expectations of 52.5, and predicated above all on a sharp drop in New Orders to 49.7 from April's 53.5, with the Output index at 50.8 from 52.5 has clearly revived concerns about a sharper US economic outlook slowdown, and are eminently are not auspicious for today's Durable Goods Orders. That said PMIs are notoriously subject to sentiment effects, which do not reflect actual order flows, with the breakdown in US/China trade talks the obvious 'mood dampener'. The key question at the headline level, which is forecast to fall 2.0% m/m after an aircraft led rise of 2.6% in March, will be how much fall-out there will be from the Boeing 737MAX debacle, which could prove to be considerably sharper than forecasts assume. Core Non-defence Capital Goods Orders had a good run during Q1 with m/m gains of 1.4%, 0.3% and 1.0%, though the ex-Transport measure was rather less impressive 0.1%, -0.3% and 0.2% during Q1.
| Inbox | x |
| 08:39 (7 minutes ago) |
|
- Modest run of data to focus on UK Retail Sales, CBI Retail survey ahead
of US Durable Goods as UK and US look to long holiday weekend; Nowotny
the only central bank speaker of note; politics and trade still front
and centre; UK PM seen expected to announce resignation
- UK Retail Sales: expected to drop modestly after 3 consecutive gains,
Easter related spending seen offering prop, but risks downside
- US Durable Goods: headline seen dropping back after March jump, Boeing
737MAX a major wildcard; core orders seen easing after solid Q1 run
- EU Parliament elections: Dutch exit poll suggests anti-EU party trailing
in third behind opposition Labour and PM Rutte's conservatives; Italy
result expected to boost Salvini's Lega, and raising coalition tensions
- Charts: IMF charts on US/China imports of tariffed goods; USD/CNY and
China-Hong Connect equity flows
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
UK Retail Sales and US Durable Goods Orders top the day's data and events schedule, with both countries looking forward to a long weekend due to holidays on Monday. Outside of these there are the national CPI readings from Japan to digest, while ahead lie the UK CBI Distributive and Retail Trades surveys and final Q1 GDP from Mexico, along with a speech from ECB's Nowotny. Eminently the UK's political dramatics and in the US the renewed focus on Trump's finances amid impeachment chatter (above all with reference to alleged obstruction of justice) will be further points of focus, but barring any snippets on these and/or US/China trade, the week could end with something of a whimper. On the political front, exit polls for the Dutch European Parliament elections suggest a surprise win for the Labour Party with PM Rutte's party in second, with the anti-EU Forum for Democracy only managing third place. Elsewhere the key point of focus will be Italy, where Salvini's League is expected to win up to 30% or more of the vote, and M5S to be at least 10 points behind, leading some to speculate how long the current coalition may last, perhaps the more so given Salvini's comments today that he expects the coalition to get on with implementing key elements of Lega's agenda, as of next week.
** U.K. - April Retail Sales **
- Expectations of a -0.3% m/m for headline and -0.5% m/m for ex-petrol Retail Sales are primarily predicated on the quite unusual phenomenon of Sales having risen in m/m terms for three straight months (the last time was June through August 2017), and per se assumes a reactive correction. Personal Consumption was of course the primary driver of Q1 GDP, and if forecasts are correct will likely make a much smaller contribution to Q2. It should be added that were it not for this year's 'late' Easter and expectations that this should act as a prop, forecasts would probably be discounting a rather larger setback, which may still happen given that this remains a highly erratic series.
** U.S.A. - April Durable Goods Orders **
- Yesterday's data and survey news flow seeing sharp falls in both PMIs, with the Manufacturing PMI at a nearly 10-yr low of 50.6 vs. expectations of 52.5, and predicated above all on a sharp drop in New Orders to 49.7 from April's 53.5, with the Output index at 50.8 from 52.5 has clearly revived concerns about a sharper US economic outlook slowdown, and are eminently are not auspicious for today's Durable Goods Orders. That said PMIs are notoriously subject to sentiment effects, which do not reflect actual order flows, with the breakdown in US/China trade talks the obvious 'mood dampener'. The key question at the headline level, which is forecast to fall 2.0% m/m after an aircraft led rise of 2.6% in March, will be how much fall-out there will be from the Boeing 737MAX debacle, which could prove to be considerably sharper than forecasts assume. Core Non-defence Capital Goods Orders had a good run during Q1 with m/m gains of 1.4%, 0.3% and 1.0%, though the ex-Transport measure was rather less impressive 0.1%, -0.3% and 0.2% during Q1.
Dentalfloss
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A happy Whitsun/memorail day to all
Dentalfloss
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DAX
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lining up
Dentalfloss
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Cable in supp
will it get bought.?
will it get bought.?
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks ☕ ☕ ☕ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ 🆒 🆒 🆒
⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ 🆒 🆒 🆒
Dentalfloss
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A quick look at the dax
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A quick check on the close plot/line chart
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added a couple of lines to the close plot
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DAX
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poss pivot areas
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Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 28 May 2019 - ADM ISI
- Surveys led by US Consumer Confidence dominate modest schedule as UK
and US re-open; Eurozone M3/Credit growth, US House Prices and UK
Mortgage Approvals also due; EU Council meeting, Hungary rate decision
- EU elections post mortem: UK polarised and bitterly divided; German
and Italian coalitions hanging in the balance
- France / Germany Confidence: perspective required on both
- US Consumer Confidence: further modest rebound expected; gas prices,
jobs positive, economic narrative, equity turbulence a drag
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-28-may-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Business and consumer surveys, Eurozone M3 and Private Sector Credit and US Consumer Confidence and House Price indices dominate a very modest schedule of second division data, with the first of this week's May national CPI readings in Belgium, while the UK has UK Finance's (formerly BBA) Mortgage Approvals, as Japan Services PPI and Swiss Q1 GDP are digested. Following from the EU Parliament elections, EU leaders meet to start the selection and appointment process for the key roles of EU Commission, EU Council and ECB president, which will as ever be a case of collective bargaining and the associated horse trading. The Corporate earnings schedule, while the US heads the run of govt bond auctions with 2 & 5-yr T-Notes, along with 3 & 6-mth T-Bills.
The run of survey data are in broad terms seen edging lower (except France Consumer Confidence), which should not come as a surprise, given that the media and financial sector narrative around the outlook for the global economy has been negative, and the fact that the political backdrop in th developed world offers little hope that politicians are capable of improving the mood music. However, it should be stressed that French Consumer Confidence at 99 has risen for 5 months in a row since hitting its 'Gilets Jaunes' low of 87 in December, and is at its best level since May 2018, though still below levels that prevailed throughout 2017 and during the first four months of 2018. The dip in German Consumer Confidence needs to be kept in perspective, as at 10.1 it remains close to it's all-time highs, and above all readings prior to 2017. Today's Belgian CPI requires more attention than usual in so far as it should help to clarify how much of the uptick in Eurozone and national CPI readings was primarily an Easter timing effect, and per se the sharper the setback in May, the greater the pressure on the ECB to respond, which would be exacerbated were today's Eurozone Private Sector Credit data to lose momentum from what remained a rather sluggish (in credit impulse terms) 3.0% y/y in March and 3.1% and February.
Politics and trade tensions continue to be the main source of market moving news, with the UK Conservative party leadership contest already morphing into an ugly spectacle, and the UK's EU parliament vote outcome underlining that the country is bitterly divided and even more polarised, and thus making the task of forging some sort of common ground on Brexit nigh on impossible. As for the results on the continent, the poor showing of both CDU and SPD in Germany, along with the strong showing of the Greens confirms that shelf life of the current grand coalition is likely to be brief, being a case of 'when', not 'if' it breaks. Likewise in Italy the strong showing of Lega and the poor outcome for M5S suggests that the incongruous and unlikely coalition will see more infighting, above all given that Salvini will press even harder for a focus on Lega's legislative agenda, and that this will eventually force fresh elections, from which a right wing coalition of Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d'Italia would likely emerge, based on current standings.
US Consumer Confidence is expected to edge higher to 130.0 after rebounding sharply from the recent March low of 124.2 to 129.2 in April. The consensus forecast is more than likely predicated on the 15 year high recorded for preliminary Michigan Sentiment, with a modest slip in gasoline prices and continued strength in labour demand expected to outweigh the negative narrative on the economy (and domestic politics), and the recent weakness in equities, even if the latter could weigh more heavily in the equation.
| Inbox | x |
| 08:43 (53 minutes ago) |
|
- Surveys led by US Consumer Confidence dominate modest schedule as UK
and US re-open; Eurozone M3/Credit growth, US House Prices and UK
Mortgage Approvals also due; EU Council meeting, Hungary rate decision
- EU elections post mortem: UK polarised and bitterly divided; German
and Italian coalitions hanging in the balance
- France / Germany Confidence: perspective required on both
- US Consumer Confidence: further modest rebound expected; gas prices,
jobs positive, economic narrative, equity turbulence a drag
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-28-may-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Business and consumer surveys, Eurozone M3 and Private Sector Credit and US Consumer Confidence and House Price indices dominate a very modest schedule of second division data, with the first of this week's May national CPI readings in Belgium, while the UK has UK Finance's (formerly BBA) Mortgage Approvals, as Japan Services PPI and Swiss Q1 GDP are digested. Following from the EU Parliament elections, EU leaders meet to start the selection and appointment process for the key roles of EU Commission, EU Council and ECB president, which will as ever be a case of collective bargaining and the associated horse trading. The Corporate earnings schedule, while the US heads the run of govt bond auctions with 2 & 5-yr T-Notes, along with 3 & 6-mth T-Bills.
The run of survey data are in broad terms seen edging lower (except France Consumer Confidence), which should not come as a surprise, given that the media and financial sector narrative around the outlook for the global economy has been negative, and the fact that the political backdrop in th developed world offers little hope that politicians are capable of improving the mood music. However, it should be stressed that French Consumer Confidence at 99 has risen for 5 months in a row since hitting its 'Gilets Jaunes' low of 87 in December, and is at its best level since May 2018, though still below levels that prevailed throughout 2017 and during the first four months of 2018. The dip in German Consumer Confidence needs to be kept in perspective, as at 10.1 it remains close to it's all-time highs, and above all readings prior to 2017. Today's Belgian CPI requires more attention than usual in so far as it should help to clarify how much of the uptick in Eurozone and national CPI readings was primarily an Easter timing effect, and per se the sharper the setback in May, the greater the pressure on the ECB to respond, which would be exacerbated were today's Eurozone Private Sector Credit data to lose momentum from what remained a rather sluggish (in credit impulse terms) 3.0% y/y in March and 3.1% and February.
Politics and trade tensions continue to be the main source of market moving news, with the UK Conservative party leadership contest already morphing into an ugly spectacle, and the UK's EU parliament vote outcome underlining that the country is bitterly divided and even more polarised, and thus making the task of forging some sort of common ground on Brexit nigh on impossible. As for the results on the continent, the poor showing of both CDU and SPD in Germany, along with the strong showing of the Greens confirms that shelf life of the current grand coalition is likely to be brief, being a case of 'when', not 'if' it breaks. Likewise in Italy the strong showing of Lega and the poor outcome for M5S suggests that the incongruous and unlikely coalition will see more infighting, above all given that Salvini will press even harder for a focus on Lega's legislative agenda, and that this will eventually force fresh elections, from which a right wing coalition of Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d'Italia would likely emerge, based on current standings.
US Consumer Confidence is expected to edge higher to 130.0 after rebounding sharply from the recent March low of 124.2 to 129.2 in April. The consensus forecast is more than likely predicated on the 15 year high recorded for preliminary Michigan Sentiment, with a modest slip in gasoline prices and continued strength in labour demand expected to outweigh the negative narrative on the economy (and domestic politics), and the recent weakness in equities, even if the latter could weigh more heavily in the equation.
Dentalfloss
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Dow
bulls need to get that pivot area as support
bulls need to get that pivot area as support
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Difficult to see on a barchart
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dax
