Trading with point and figure

Good short from 12810 down to 12740 again!!

Missed it myself.

Edit: and down to 12710.
 
Last edited:
- Another modest day for statistics with UK CBI Industrial Trends, US
Claims & FHFA House prices; busier day for central bank speakers and
reports, Norges Bank & Banxico rate decisions; UK 30-yr, US TIPS 30-yr

- Norway rates: on hold once again, but rate trajectory likely tweaked
higher

- Mexico rates: further 25 bps rate hike expected, and then on hold?

- Energy/Commodity prices under pressure, but sector stocks strangely
impervious

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

I may be guilty of causing RSI (Repetitive strain injury), but there is very little on the statistical schedule that will trouble financial market participants today, though there are a reasonable run of central bank speakers and reports, along with rate decisions in Norway and Mexico. Statistically the generally largely ignored UK CBI Industrial Trends survey follows French Business Confidence, while the afternoon brings US weekly jobless claims and FHFA House Prices, while the govt bond auction schedule has the UK selling 30-yr conventional Gilt and the US re-opening the current 30-yr TIPS benchmark. Outside of this ephemera, there will continue to be a lot of attention on energy and commodity price woes (see CRB chart), which related equities appear to be rather impervious to (see Glencore and BP equity charts), in turn offering a further signal (as with Argentina's 100 yr USD bond) that investors appear to be so absorbed by TINA (There Is No Alternative) that even the simplest of correlations are being sacrificed at the altar of central bank financial repression.

** Norway - Norges Bank policy meeting **
- There is no doubt that Norges Bank will hold its key rate at 0.50% today, but the strength of recent data, above all the better than expected Q1 GDP (mainland 0.6% q/q) and a solid pickup in its own regional survey suggests it may tweak its rate outlook trajectory higher, the question is how much. At its March meeting it suggested rates were likely to remain at current levels for the next two years, and that if rates were to be moved again in that period, a rate cut was more probable than a rate hike.

** Mexico - Banco de Mexico policy meeting **
- Markets are fully discounting a further 25 bps rate hike to 7.0%,and today's mid-month CPI data are expected to underline that in real (inflation adjusted) terms, rates would still remain quite low, with headline CPI seen at 6.26% y/y (vs prior 6.16%) vs. Banxico's 3.0% target, though inflation is also seen as being close to a cyclical peak. Nevertheless with the MXN having staged a substantial rally after its Trump related trouncing, notwithstanding the current oil related hiatus, many are expecting this to be the last hike in the current cycle.

from Marc Ostwald
 
if in doubt at where the bottom is...
plot first rez on a bounce
see where first supp comes in from that bounce
bulls will appear there or not appear at that support
 
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