Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 27 February 2020 - ADM ISI
- Much busier day for surveys and hard data, digesting poor Australia CapEx,
as expected Spanish CPI but unexpected BoK rate hold; awaiting EC Confidence
surveys, Eurozone M3, US revised Q4 GDP, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
& Claims, Canada Current Account; Corporate earnings plentiful; Italy &
US to auction debt; Coronavirus spread still front and centre
- EU Confidence surveys seen little changed, unlikely to capture Coronavirus
until March
- US Q4 GDP: no headline revision seen, Net Exports and non-residential
investment likely to be edged up, Personal Consumption down
- US Durable Goods Orders: Aircraft to drag on headline, core measures
expected to eke out marginal increases
- US Pending Home Sales: jump in MBA mortgage approvals predicates
expected rebound
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-27-february-2020/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
After a very minimalist run of data releases in the first half of the week, the final two days of the week are jam packed with major data, with Australian Q4 CapEx (much worse than forecast at -2.8% q/q vs. forecast +0.5%, with mining and construction being a major drag, despite a rise in machinery CapEx) and Spanish CPI (with the rest of the larger Eurozone countries due tomorrow) getting things under way. A plethora of national and Eurozone Confidence surveys follows along with Eurozone M3, while a busy run in the US has the first revision to Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, weekly jobless claims, Pending Home Sales and the KC Fed Manufacturing survey, with Canada looking to Q4 Current Account. It will be a busier day for corporate earnings, with a number of first and second tier US energy companies reporting, while on the Govt bond auction front Italy sells 5 & 10-yr BTPs, and the US concludes this week's funding operation with a 7-yr T-Note auction. Against expectations the Bank of Korea did not cut rates by 25 bps to a record low of 1.0% overnight, with BoK governor Lee saying ""For now, selectively deploying micro-policies to service sectors and other vulnerable industries would be a more effective set of responses than adjusting the (policy) rate", this may be a stance adopted by other central banks. There are also numerous ECB, BoE and Fed speakers, and a potentially key meeting between Italian PM Conte and French President Macron, with the fate of the Turin-Lyon high speed rail link being among likely discussion points, with relations between the two countries being at the lowest ebb for many decades, even if slightly less tense since Salvini and Lega left the govt. The focus in terms of the Coronavirus spread remains above all on the spread outside of China, with yesterday being the first day in which new cases outside of China at 427, were higher than those in China, thus raising the odds that this will eventually be officially called a pandemic, with German Health Minister Spahn already declaring it an epidemic in Germany, and doctors in California suggesting there is likely to be a jump in reported cases in the USA, given that testing & diagnoses are only just starting. Today's EC Confidence surveys are forecast to see little change vs. January, with national business surveys generally surprising on the upside in contrast to the mixed French and German PMIs last Friday. The key point remains that these surveys have not as yet captured reaction to the Coronavirus spread, though March surveys doubtless will. Last but not least, yesterday's Die Zeit article suggesting a temporary suspension of Germany's 'debt brake', which would allow the Federal Government to assume a large chunk of municipal debt via transfer, and thus allowing some of the estimated EUR 120 Bln of local infrastructure spending that has been shelved or put on hold because of the debt brake to get under way, is a good idea. But this SPD idea has been roundly rejected by the CDU, and may indeed usher in the end of the grand coalition.
** U.S.A. - Q4 revised GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales **
- The consensus sees Q4 GDP unrevised at 2.1%, though the downward revisions to Retail Sales predicate forecasts of a marginal downward revision to Personal Consumption to 1.7%, and perhaps a small upward revision to investment in non-residential structures, but overall highlighting that the steep fall in Imports accounted for a big boost from Trade, which may be shaded a touch higher. However with concerns rising about a further weakening in Q1 Personal Consumption, which may take a further hit should there be a substantive Coronavirus outbreak. Headline Durable Goods Orders are forecast to drop 1.5% m/m due to a drag from aircraft, with Boeing Orders zero in January but likely to be less of a drag due to seasonal adjustment, though there could be some mean reversion in Defence Aircraft after a bloated gain of 3.8% m/m in December. Core Orders measures are expected to see a 0.2% m/m gain ex-Transport, and nothing more than a dead cat bounce of 0.1% m/m in Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft, after a steep drop of -0.8% m/m in December, which rounded off a poor quarter for this CapEx proxy measure. Following on from the very sharp rise in yesterday's New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales are projected to have rebound by 3.0% m/m after a steep 4.9% m/m drop in December, predicated on the jump in MBQ Mortgage Applications seen in January.
| Inbox | x |
| 09:08 (1 hour ago) |
|
- Much busier day for surveys and hard data, digesting poor Australia CapEx,
as expected Spanish CPI but unexpected BoK rate hold; awaiting EC Confidence
surveys, Eurozone M3, US revised Q4 GDP, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales
& Claims, Canada Current Account; Corporate earnings plentiful; Italy &
US to auction debt; Coronavirus spread still front and centre
- EU Confidence surveys seen little changed, unlikely to capture Coronavirus
until March
- US Q4 GDP: no headline revision seen, Net Exports and non-residential
investment likely to be edged up, Personal Consumption down
- US Durable Goods Orders: Aircraft to drag on headline, core measures
expected to eke out marginal increases
- US Pending Home Sales: jump in MBA mortgage approvals predicates
expected rebound
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-27-february-2020/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
After a very minimalist run of data releases in the first half of the week, the final two days of the week are jam packed with major data, with Australian Q4 CapEx (much worse than forecast at -2.8% q/q vs. forecast +0.5%, with mining and construction being a major drag, despite a rise in machinery CapEx) and Spanish CPI (with the rest of the larger Eurozone countries due tomorrow) getting things under way. A plethora of national and Eurozone Confidence surveys follows along with Eurozone M3, while a busy run in the US has the first revision to Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, weekly jobless claims, Pending Home Sales and the KC Fed Manufacturing survey, with Canada looking to Q4 Current Account. It will be a busier day for corporate earnings, with a number of first and second tier US energy companies reporting, while on the Govt bond auction front Italy sells 5 & 10-yr BTPs, and the US concludes this week's funding operation with a 7-yr T-Note auction. Against expectations the Bank of Korea did not cut rates by 25 bps to a record low of 1.0% overnight, with BoK governor Lee saying ""For now, selectively deploying micro-policies to service sectors and other vulnerable industries would be a more effective set of responses than adjusting the (policy) rate", this may be a stance adopted by other central banks. There are also numerous ECB, BoE and Fed speakers, and a potentially key meeting between Italian PM Conte and French President Macron, with the fate of the Turin-Lyon high speed rail link being among likely discussion points, with relations between the two countries being at the lowest ebb for many decades, even if slightly less tense since Salvini and Lega left the govt. The focus in terms of the Coronavirus spread remains above all on the spread outside of China, with yesterday being the first day in which new cases outside of China at 427, were higher than those in China, thus raising the odds that this will eventually be officially called a pandemic, with German Health Minister Spahn already declaring it an epidemic in Germany, and doctors in California suggesting there is likely to be a jump in reported cases in the USA, given that testing & diagnoses are only just starting. Today's EC Confidence surveys are forecast to see little change vs. January, with national business surveys generally surprising on the upside in contrast to the mixed French and German PMIs last Friday. The key point remains that these surveys have not as yet captured reaction to the Coronavirus spread, though March surveys doubtless will. Last but not least, yesterday's Die Zeit article suggesting a temporary suspension of Germany's 'debt brake', which would allow the Federal Government to assume a large chunk of municipal debt via transfer, and thus allowing some of the estimated EUR 120 Bln of local infrastructure spending that has been shelved or put on hold because of the debt brake to get under way, is a good idea. But this SPD idea has been roundly rejected by the CDU, and may indeed usher in the end of the grand coalition.
** U.S.A. - Q4 revised GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales **
- The consensus sees Q4 GDP unrevised at 2.1%, though the downward revisions to Retail Sales predicate forecasts of a marginal downward revision to Personal Consumption to 1.7%, and perhaps a small upward revision to investment in non-residential structures, but overall highlighting that the steep fall in Imports accounted for a big boost from Trade, which may be shaded a touch higher. However with concerns rising about a further weakening in Q1 Personal Consumption, which may take a further hit should there be a substantive Coronavirus outbreak. Headline Durable Goods Orders are forecast to drop 1.5% m/m due to a drag from aircraft, with Boeing Orders zero in January but likely to be less of a drag due to seasonal adjustment, though there could be some mean reversion in Defence Aircraft after a bloated gain of 3.8% m/m in December. Core Orders measures are expected to see a 0.2% m/m gain ex-Transport, and nothing more than a dead cat bounce of 0.1% m/m in Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft, after a steep drop of -0.8% m/m in December, which rounded off a poor quarter for this CapEx proxy measure. Following on from the very sharp rise in yesterday's New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales are projected to have rebound by 3.0% m/m after a steep 4.9% m/m drop in December, predicated on the jump in MBQ Mortgage Applications seen in January.
Dentalfloss
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Will supp hold.?
Dentalfloss
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updated
Dentalfloss
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a bad bounce off our trendline
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In support
Dentalfloss
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Chart courtesy of Updata
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
🤪 🤪 🤪 🤪 😍 😍 😍 🤓 🤓 😁 😁
🤪 🤪 🤪 🤪 😍 😍 😍 🤓 🤓 😁 😁
Dentalfloss
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Buyers need 12K as support#
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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take the signals on the one yu are trading
sometimes they diverge a tad
Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 28 February 2020 - ADM ISI
- Very busy run of data to end the month, but likely to be trampled under
foot by sharp sentiment pendulum swing on coronavirus global spread
- China PMIs: very sensitive, but consensus estimates meaningless given
wide range of forecasts
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-28-february-2020/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The final trading day of February is replete with a long menu of major data, which will struggle to drag market attention away from Coronavirus news, as will the run of ECB, BoE & Fed speakers, most of whom have spoken recently. Be that as it may, there are the run of CPI, Unemployment, Retail Sales & Industrial Production from Japan, and UK consumer & business surveys & French Consumer Spending and CPI to digest. Ahead lie national CPI readings in the Eurozone (pan Eurozone scheduled for Tuesday), German Unemployment and a raft of national final Q4 GDP readings in Europe, and preliminary Q4 GDP from India and Canada, while US looks to Personal Income & PCE, advance Goods Trade Balance and Chicago PMI. But in terms of the Coronavirus impact it will be an expected collapse in tomorrow's China official NBS PMIs, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI due on Monday morning which likely attracts most attention - though forecasts range from 33.0 to 50.1 for the NBS Manufacturing PMI, with that 33.0 being way below the 38.8 all time low in 2008. The range of forecasts for the Non-manufacturing PMI is 42.0 to 51.0, with the November 2008 record low remarkably being 50.8. Per se, the median forecasts of 45.0 from Jan 50.0 and 51.0 from Jan 54.1 respectively are pretty meaningless, when the ranges are that large.
** Germany - February CPI & Unemployment **
- While German HICP inflation at an expected unchanged 1.6% is at the high end of the range for Euro area (expected 1.2% y/y vs. January 1.4% y/y), it offers no evidence of the sort of sustained uptrend that will be needed to give the ECB any confidence that inflation is headed back to / or just below 2.0%, and the ECB's policy review is in that respect rather moot. As for Unemployment, another modest 5K rise is expected, though the Unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at 5.0%. In trend terms, the rise in Unemployment has been marginal, but as the attached comparison of Unemployment vs. Short-time Workers (a less timely series published by the Bundesbank) highlights: a) 2019 was the first year in 6, where Unemployment did not fall, and b) far more importantly, given that labour market indicators are very much a lagging indicator, the spike higher in Short-time Workers underlines the extent to which the labour demand has fallen, and suggests a further acceleration as we move through 2020.
** India - Q4 GDP **
- As has been more than well documented, India was THE biggest disappointment in growth terms in 2019, and even an expected uptick in Q4 GDP to 4.7% from Q3 4.5% and a more modest pick-up in GVA to 4.4% from 4.3% will do anything to change that, given that the start of year projections in 2019 were for 7.0% plus. The turnaround in PMIs offers some hope that the combination of the array of fiscal measures and the RBI's rate cuts are starting to get some traction, but there remains good cause to remain sceptical about the durability, particularly given the level of civil unrest. There is some modest upside risk from the fact that the estimate for FY 2020 GDP is expected to be cut sharply to 5.0% from 6.1%, and FY 2019 is also seen revised lower, according to some estimates to 6.1% from 6.8%, thus lowering the base for FY 2020, and it is this that needs to be factored into assessing any upside 'beat'.
** Canada - Q4 GDP **
- That Canadian Q4 GDP is expected to confirm that the economy was almost at stall speed at the end of 2019 will come as no surprise, with the SAAR rate seen at just 0.3% q/q, while December's GDP is forecast at 0.1% m/m which would see the y/y rate edge up to 1.6% from 1.5%. The Bank of Canada has made it abundantly clear that while it has an easing bias, it is in no mood to be pre-emptive, thus the Q1 profile will be far more material to when it might cut rates. The Indigenous Solidarity Blockade of British Columbia rail lines in protest at the Coastal GasLink pipeline will clearly be a drag during Q1, but it may well be plummeting oil prices, with the benchmark WCS (West Canada Select) back down at $32.50 and the negative implications for the hydrocarbon sector that is so crucial to the western half of Canada's economy, which forces the BoC's hand, especially if North America were to see disruption due to the Coronavirus.
** U.S.A. - Jan Personal Income/PCE & Advance Goods Trade Balance **
- This being January Personal Income & PCE data, there are a couple of factors which need to be borne in mind, firstly January sees the annual cost of living adjustment for social security (1.6% this year), which tends to give a boost beyond the read across from Average Hourly Earnings, and farm sector incomes are finally expected to stabilize, following the biggest drop in 40 years in 2019; as such there are some very slight upside risks relative to an already elevated 0.4% m/m consensus. Retail Sales were quite sluggish, above all goods, and thus there are downside risks on the PCE forecast 0.3% m/m, above all due to lower utility outgoings due to unseasonably warm weather. As for the deflators, both are expected to rise a very long-term average 0.2% m/m, with base effects accounting for the y/y rate rises to 1.8% on headline and 1.7% core, both from 1.6% in December. As for the Goods Trade Balance, this is seen little changed at $-68.5 Bln vs. Dec $-68.3 Bln, though it will be the details on export and import growth, or lack thereof, which will be mostly watched, above all given some scope for a boost to exports from the agricultural sector, while Imports should stabilize after their Q4 slide. As is well known the Chicago PMI can move very sharply on a month to month basis, and quite frequently in the opposite direction to other regional surveys, which have all surprised on the upside. The consensus looks for a bounce to 46.0, after sliding in to 42.9 (4 year low) in January from December's 48.2.
| Inbox | x |
| 08:56 (1 hour ago) |
|
- Very busy run of data to end the month, but likely to be trampled under
foot by sharp sentiment pendulum swing on coronavirus global spread
- China PMIs: very sensitive, but consensus estimates meaningless given
wide range of forecasts
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-28-february-2020/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The final trading day of February is replete with a long menu of major data, which will struggle to drag market attention away from Coronavirus news, as will the run of ECB, BoE & Fed speakers, most of whom have spoken recently. Be that as it may, there are the run of CPI, Unemployment, Retail Sales & Industrial Production from Japan, and UK consumer & business surveys & French Consumer Spending and CPI to digest. Ahead lie national CPI readings in the Eurozone (pan Eurozone scheduled for Tuesday), German Unemployment and a raft of national final Q4 GDP readings in Europe, and preliminary Q4 GDP from India and Canada, while US looks to Personal Income & PCE, advance Goods Trade Balance and Chicago PMI. But in terms of the Coronavirus impact it will be an expected collapse in tomorrow's China official NBS PMIs, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI due on Monday morning which likely attracts most attention - though forecasts range from 33.0 to 50.1 for the NBS Manufacturing PMI, with that 33.0 being way below the 38.8 all time low in 2008. The range of forecasts for the Non-manufacturing PMI is 42.0 to 51.0, with the November 2008 record low remarkably being 50.8. Per se, the median forecasts of 45.0 from Jan 50.0 and 51.0 from Jan 54.1 respectively are pretty meaningless, when the ranges are that large.
** Germany - February CPI & Unemployment **
- While German HICP inflation at an expected unchanged 1.6% is at the high end of the range for Euro area (expected 1.2% y/y vs. January 1.4% y/y), it offers no evidence of the sort of sustained uptrend that will be needed to give the ECB any confidence that inflation is headed back to / or just below 2.0%, and the ECB's policy review is in that respect rather moot. As for Unemployment, another modest 5K rise is expected, though the Unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged at 5.0%. In trend terms, the rise in Unemployment has been marginal, but as the attached comparison of Unemployment vs. Short-time Workers (a less timely series published by the Bundesbank) highlights: a) 2019 was the first year in 6, where Unemployment did not fall, and b) far more importantly, given that labour market indicators are very much a lagging indicator, the spike higher in Short-time Workers underlines the extent to which the labour demand has fallen, and suggests a further acceleration as we move through 2020.
** India - Q4 GDP **
- As has been more than well documented, India was THE biggest disappointment in growth terms in 2019, and even an expected uptick in Q4 GDP to 4.7% from Q3 4.5% and a more modest pick-up in GVA to 4.4% from 4.3% will do anything to change that, given that the start of year projections in 2019 were for 7.0% plus. The turnaround in PMIs offers some hope that the combination of the array of fiscal measures and the RBI's rate cuts are starting to get some traction, but there remains good cause to remain sceptical about the durability, particularly given the level of civil unrest. There is some modest upside risk from the fact that the estimate for FY 2020 GDP is expected to be cut sharply to 5.0% from 6.1%, and FY 2019 is also seen revised lower, according to some estimates to 6.1% from 6.8%, thus lowering the base for FY 2020, and it is this that needs to be factored into assessing any upside 'beat'.
** Canada - Q4 GDP **
- That Canadian Q4 GDP is expected to confirm that the economy was almost at stall speed at the end of 2019 will come as no surprise, with the SAAR rate seen at just 0.3% q/q, while December's GDP is forecast at 0.1% m/m which would see the y/y rate edge up to 1.6% from 1.5%. The Bank of Canada has made it abundantly clear that while it has an easing bias, it is in no mood to be pre-emptive, thus the Q1 profile will be far more material to when it might cut rates. The Indigenous Solidarity Blockade of British Columbia rail lines in protest at the Coastal GasLink pipeline will clearly be a drag during Q1, but it may well be plummeting oil prices, with the benchmark WCS (West Canada Select) back down at $32.50 and the negative implications for the hydrocarbon sector that is so crucial to the western half of Canada's economy, which forces the BoC's hand, especially if North America were to see disruption due to the Coronavirus.
** U.S.A. - Jan Personal Income/PCE & Advance Goods Trade Balance **
- This being January Personal Income & PCE data, there are a couple of factors which need to be borne in mind, firstly January sees the annual cost of living adjustment for social security (1.6% this year), which tends to give a boost beyond the read across from Average Hourly Earnings, and farm sector incomes are finally expected to stabilize, following the biggest drop in 40 years in 2019; as such there are some very slight upside risks relative to an already elevated 0.4% m/m consensus. Retail Sales were quite sluggish, above all goods, and thus there are downside risks on the PCE forecast 0.3% m/m, above all due to lower utility outgoings due to unseasonably warm weather. As for the deflators, both are expected to rise a very long-term average 0.2% m/m, with base effects accounting for the y/y rate rises to 1.8% on headline and 1.7% core, both from 1.6% in December. As for the Goods Trade Balance, this is seen little changed at $-68.5 Bln vs. Dec $-68.3 Bln, though it will be the details on export and import growth, or lack thereof, which will be mostly watched, above all given some scope for a boost to exports from the agricultural sector, while Imports should stabilize after their Q4 slide. As is well known the Chicago PMI can move very sharply on a month to month basis, and quite frequently in the opposite direction to other regional surveys, which have all surprised on the upside. The consensus looks for a bounce to 46.0, after sliding in to 42.9 (4 year low) in January from December's 48.2.
