Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · Feb 12, 2020

Dentalfloss · Feb 12, 2020

Croosed the line

Dentalfloss · Feb 12, 2020

Dentalfloss · Feb 13, 2020

Mornin folks

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Dentalfloss · Feb 13, 2020

A quick look at the Dow

Dentalfloss · Feb 13, 2020

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - xx January 2020 - ADM ISI

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Ostwald, Marc

08:16 (35 minutes ago)

to Marc

- US CPI tops another modest schedule of data; digesting UK RICS House
Price jump and French Unemployment drop; UK Cabinet reshuffle, DM
central bank speakers, EM rate decisions, busier day for earnings
reports; Italy and US to auction govt debt

- Coronavirus case and death resurgence a timely reminder that of the
foolishness of empathy-free 'wishful seeing'

- US CPI: very average m/m gain expected, little change in y/y terms,
underlying trend very steady

- Charts: US WTI Crude Oil futures & USD Index

- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-13-february-2020/

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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Once again the day's data schedule looks rather thin, with UK RICS House Price survey, Dutch Q4 GDP and French labour data to digest ahead of US CPI and weekly jobless claims. The events schedule is rather busier with plenty of G7/10 central bank speakers, Fed board nomination confirmation hearings for President Trump's 'super dove' nominations Shelton and Waller, and EM central bank rate decisions in Mexico, Peru and Serbia. In the UK, PM Johnson is also due to announce a Cabinet reshuffle, though the short-term key remains the Mach 11 Budget and how that shapes the domestic policy agenda and outlook.

A busier day in terms of corporate earnings has some big consumer sector / tech names amongst others: Airbus, Alibaba, Barclays, Coco Cola (Europe), Expedia, Kraft Heinz, Nestle & Pepsico, while Italy with 3 & 7-yr and the US with 30-yr feature in terms of govt bond auctions. As such it will be the rebound in new cases and deaths from the Coronavirus in Hubei (New Cases 14,840, deaths a record daily total of 242) which is likely to be the key thematic, serving as a reminder to markets which at every opportunity display a rather sociopathic tendency to want to be able to put this epidemic 'behind them' that there is so much that we humans are not masters of either in knowledge or action terms, let alone the obvious and shameful hubris.

** U.S.A. - January CPI **
- If accurate, forecasts of a rise of 0.2% m/m on both headline and core CPI, which would see the former rise to 2.4% t/t and the latter dip to 2.2%, both from 2.3%, then today's US inflation data are unlikely to create much of a stir. Fed chair Powell appeared optimistic that inflation would revert to target in coming months, while emphasizing the contribution of benign base effects thereto. Given the fall in oil and gasoline prices, headline CPI is likely to drop back in coming months. Housing Costs (OER) and medical care will likely continue to exercise some upside pressure on core, though airfares are likely to be a drag, both due to the fall in energy costs, as well as a likely drop in demand due to Coronavirus, though supply constraints may be a factor on that front going forward.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================