Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · Oct 10, 2019

Our line became supp...late entry

Dentalfloss · Oct 10, 2019

yes sir

Dentalfloss · Oct 10, 2019

and dump our 12080..tight stop

Dentalfloss · Oct 10, 2019

was that 12046 entry too late.?
not really....cos twaz messy beforehand

Dentalfloss · Oct 10, 2019

Our line @12069 held as supp

Dentalfloss · Oct 10, 2019

stopped out
excellent run

Dentalfloss · Oct 10, 2019

in rez..might get messy

Dentalfloss · Oct 10, 2019

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 10 October 2019 - ADM ISI

Inbox

x

Ostwald, Marc

08:45 (37 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Very busy schedule of data and key commodity sector reports subordinated
to US/China Trade talks; digesting Japan Orders, PPI; Australia Housing
Finance, UK RICS survey, German Trade & Norway CPI; looking ahead to
UK monthly GDP and deluge of accompanying activity data, US CPI & jobless
claims: OPEC and WASDE monthly Reports; Fed speak, ECB minutes & US 30-yr

- UK GDP: Services seen weak, but manufacturing set to get boost from autos,
growth tepid, but expected to avoid recession in Q3, Construction could
be pivotal; Trade deficit seen widening modestly

- US CPI: energy to weigh on headline; core may see further upward pressure
from tariff pass through

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

There is a feast of major economic data, but in all likelihood, the only event that markets will give their undivided attention to will be the US/China trade talks, which will in turn frame reaction to key commodity sector reports that will also be published: OPEC monthly Oil Market Report and the USDA's monthly WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report. But from the overnight run of data, there are the better than expected UK RICS survey, as expected Japanese Orders & PPI, Australia Housing Finance, German Trade, Norway CPI and French Industrial Production to digest. Ahead lie Swedish CPI, a deluge of UK activity data - GDP, Industrial Production, Index of Services, Trade & Construction Output - and US CPI and weekly jobless claims. There are also an EcoFin meeting, the September ECB minutes and some Fed speak (Mester/Kashkari), while the US will round off this weeks' coupon refunding with $16 Bln of 30-yr. As far as the ECB minutes go, the key question given the very clear and deep divisions about the QE decision is how much these are in 'plain sight' or perhaps glossed over. In terms of the US/China trade negotiations, the incessant stream of vacillating Trump tweets, and sources briefings about the Chinese stance make the outcome rather uncertain, and there will doubtless be considerable 'to and fro' over the next 48 hours. But in principle anything that suggests the two sides continue to engage, rather than walking away as was the case in May, is at least positive, though whether this actually results in some sort of mini-deal is up in the air. It certainly appears that the US is not interested in anything small scale, and equally it seems safe to say that China is in no mood to make concessions on IPR or subsidies, though clearly willing to increase agricultural purchases. The media kerfuffle about a currency clause in any trade pact beggars belief, the US has long stated that such no currency manipulation clauses would be a standard feature of all future tared pacts as it was / is in the USMCA, this is not news, and ultimately boils down to enforcement, which seems debatable given all the noises (founded or not) from the White House about weakening the USD.

** U.K. - August GDP, Industrial Production, Index of Services & Trade **
- Eminently any significant Brexit 'negotiation' developments would knock today's data run totally out of the park. Be that as it may, GDP is expected to post a flat m/m reading after a solid 0.3% in July, which would see the q/q reading edge up to 0.1% q/q, as the adverse elements of the Q2 reaction to Q1's front loading start to unwind. In the detail, it is likely to be the boost to Industrial Production & Manufacturing Output from the fact that automakers brought forward their annual re-tooling shutdowns to April which paces the August expansion, with the Index of Services expected to dip 0.1% m/m after a 0.3% m/m jump in July. Construction Output is expected to echo persistent weakness in the sector PMI with a 0.4% m/m drop, though this does follow a gain of 0.5% m/m in July. If forecasts are correct, then Q3 GDP would appear likely to eke out a marginal increase, though the weak September PMIs suggest this will be a close run thing. Trade data proved to be a bright spot in July, with Exports up 3.5% m/m and Imports up 3.3%, which saw the Total Trade Balance again posting only a very marginal deficit of £-219 Mln after June's £-132 Mln, but August is expected to see this start to drift wider to £-1.05 Bln, though still well off the average £6.8 Bln seen in March through May.

** U.S.A. - August CPI **
- Following on from the much weaker than expected PPI, the focus turns to CPI, and while it would be natural to assume that the risks are firmly skewed to the downside due to the PPI, the fact is that the latter's drop was paced above all by Trade Services and Transport/Warehousing, and that the non-Food & Energy consumer components again posted gains. Energy will certainly be a drag on headline, and with Food price pressures subdued, the risks are perhaps to the downside of the expected 0.1% m/m 1.9% y/y, while the pass through to consumers from tariffs along with ongoing uwpards pressure in Housing (OER) and Medical Care/Pharma costs imply some upside risks for Core relative to a consensus of 0.2% m/m 2.4% y/y.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================