Dentalfloss
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Bounce from our supp area
Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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Bounce into rez
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whack
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Missed the dump
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Will it bounce.?
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Upper horizontal became rez
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fumble....lookin for support
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And bounce
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Time for a bowl of porridge
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Holding...just
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 7 October 2019 - ADM ISI
- Digesting China FX Reserves and German Factory Orders on very quiet day
for statistics; Kashkari the only notable central bank speaker, leaving
focus on US/China Trade and Brexit talks, US impeachment inquiry
- German Orders poor though as expected, but what might break the continued
fiscal intransigence?
- Iraq violent unrest and US tacit endorsement of Turkish military operation
in Northern Syria add to Middle East flashpoint heat map
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The week gets off to a subdued start in terms of both data and events, with the unexpected dip in China's FX reserves, and another fall in German Factory Orders the only items of any real note statistically. The ultra dovish Kashkari is the only Fed speaker of note, and the official narratives ahead of this week's US/China Trade talks, and UK/EU Brexit talks likely to be the more significant talking points, along with the escalating impeachment inquiry tensions in the U.S.A. There is little doubt that China goes into this week's trade talks with the view that the 'impeachment' inquiry would appear to strengthen their hand, especially with the US/North Korea negotiations taking a sharp turn for the worse, but with Trump being as irrational and unpredictable as he is, this is a risky stance to take. A narrow limited deal would be of course be welcome, though the best that can probably be hoped for is for some form of 'truce' extension. In terms of the German Factory Orders, these were on balance as expected given the modest revision to July, but the fact is that orders have fallen in y/y terms for 15 months consecutively, and recent survey data point to a continued contraction until the end of the year, with weakness broad based. The case for fiscal stimulus is now deafening, but it may require a so-called 'nightmare' outturn for the Thuringen state election on 27 October, i.e. the possibility that the top two spots in vote share terms are taken by the far left (Die Linke) and the Far Right (AfD), with the SPD potentially struggling to achieve the 5% hurdle required to gain seats in the state legislature, and perhaps opting to break the grand coalition at Federal level.
RECAP - Week Ahead snapshot (updated with thoughts on Iraq and Turkey/Syria situations)
The week ahead brings a goodly volume of major data including US CPI & PPI, German and Japanese Orders, Trade and Production in many Eurozone countries, and monthly GDP and the usual raft of accompanying activity data in the UK, which also has BRC Retail Sales.
There are the September FOMC and ECB minutes along with another deluge of BoE, BoJ, ECB & Fed speakers. But it will be the China/US Trade talks, the heightened US/EU Trade tensions, and the brinkmanship around Brexit which command most attention, and likely to feed a seasonally typical and elevated level of volatility in asset markets. Middle East tensions have two additional elements to consider beyond the heightened risk of Iran vs. Saudi/US tensions spilling over to outright conflict, firstly escalating social unrest in Iraq on the back of mass unemployment, govt corruption and deep resentment towards Iranian meddling and influence, with the resultant unexpected resurrection of Iraqi nationalism which many had assumed could get no traction given the still vivid and deep scars from Saddam Hussein's vicious and brutal regime. The wave of disenchanted violence could easily end up threatening Iraq's oil sector, a threat that should not be underestimated. The second is the US decision to tacitly approve (via inaction) a Turkish military incursion into Northern Syria (Kurdish region), which not only threatens a brutal confrontation, but will also incur the wrath of Russia (which is perhaps the US' intention, though this is a top drawer example of 'scorched earth' policy).
Oil prices will continue to be a focal point in the context of the gloom and doom narrative on the global economy, and also have the OPEC monthly Oil Market report to digest, while the agricultural commodities sector looks to the USDA's latest WASDE report (both due on Thursday)
FWIW via Investing Channel: Some thoughts on US rates, bonds & markets in Q4
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
# HOLIDAYS: China - National Day; Hong Kong - Chung Yeung Day
Norway 07:00 2020 Budget to be presented
Italy ----- Bank of Italy report on Bank Balance-Sheet Aggregates
Israel 14:00 Bank of Israel rate decision - no change 0.25%
U.S.A. 15:20 Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari participates in a
fireside chat at 2019 Fall Finance and Tribal
Economies Conference
Mexico ----- Finance Minister Urzua, Banco de Mexico's Carstens
speak at a Forbes forum
- Govt Bond Auctions / Buybacks
South Korea 03:30 KRW 1.2 Tln Sept-2024 Terasury
Malaysia 05:00 MYR 3.0 Bln 2029 Govt
Taiwan 05:30 TWD 30 Bln Oct-2029 (#108-9) Govt
Romania 11:00 RON 500 Mln 4.0% 2022 Govt
Israel 11:00 ILS 300 Mln each 0.75% 2022, 2.25% 2028 & 3.75% 2047
and ILS 250 Mln I-L 0.5% 2029 Govts
Albania 12:00 ALL 2.0 Bln 5.53% 2029 Govt
Kazakhstan 12:00 KZT 5.0 Bln 5.5% 2026 Meukam Govts
Bulgaria 12:00 Regular Govt Bond auction
- Corporate Earnings:
• LG Electronics (Q2) • Samsung Electronics (Q2) // Angling Direct (H1) • Sensyne Health (Yr
0.00) • Sberbank (Q2)
..........................................................................
******************
** TODAY'S DATA **
****************** MEDIAN
Ireland 00:01 Sep Consumer Confidence
Japan 00:50 Sep FX Reserves
Indonesia 04:00 Sep FX Reserves
China ----- Sep FX Reserves $3.106 Trln
Philippines ----- Sep FX Reserves
Estonia 06:00 Sep CPI
Japan 06:00 Aug prov. Leading Index 91.7
06:00 Aug prov. Coincident Index 99.4
Denmark 07:00 Aug Industrial Production
Germany 07:00 Aug Factory Orders WDA -0.4% (m) -6.9%
Norway 07:00 Aug Industrial Production WDA
07:00 Aug Manufacturing Output -0.3% (m)
South Africa 07:00 Sep Gross FX Reserves $49.90 Bln
07:00 Sep Net FX Reserves $45.13 Bln
Malaysia 08:00 Sep FX Reserves
Switzerland 08:00 Sep FX Reserves
Czech Rep. 08:00 Aug Industrial Production -2.9%
08:00 Aug Trade Balance CZK -500 Mln
08:00 Aug Construction Output
Hungary 08:00 Aug Industrial Production WDA 4.9%
Austria 08:00 Sep WPI
Sweden 08:30 Sep Budget Balance
Taiwan 09:00 Sep Trade Balance $5.81 Bln
09:00 Sep Exports 1.1%
09:00 Sep Imports -4.0%
Eurozone 09:30 Oct Sentix Investor Confidence -13
Qatar 10:00 Sep Qatar Financial Center PMI
Singapore 10:00 Sep FX Reserves
Israel 11:00 Aug Chain Store Sales
Ireland 11:00 Aug Industrial Production
Serbia 11:00 Sep PPI
Mauritius ----- Sep CPI
Mexico 12:00 Jul Gross Fixed Investment -7.6%
Chile 12:30 Sep Trade Balance
13:00 Aug Nominal Wages
Brazil 14:00 Sep Vehicle Sales & Production (Anfavea)
Canada 15:00 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence
Uruguay 18:00 Aug Unemployment Rate
U.S.A. 20:00 Aug Consumer Credit $16.0 Bln
Costa Rica ----- Sep CPI
El Salvador ----- Sep CPI
Guatemala ----- Sep CPI
Nicaragua ----- Sep CPI
****************** OVERNIGHT HEADLINES *****************
Germany - Aug Factory Orders -0.6% m/m -6.7% y/y vs. f'cast -0.3%/-6.4%
- July Orders revised to -2.1% m/m vs. prov. -2.7% m/m
China - Sept FX Reserves fall to $3.092 Trln vs. f'cast $3.106 Trln,
August $3.107 Trln
Japan - September FX reserves fall to $1.323 Trln vs. Aug $1.332 Trln
Japan - Aug Coincident Index falls 0.4 pt to 99.3, govt cuts assessment
- Aug Leading Index falls 2.0 pts to 91.7
U.K. - Britain's Johnson asks France's Macron to 'push forward' on Brexit
- UK could be flexible on details of Northern Ireland veto, customs plan
- Brexit Secretary says there is flexibility on N.Irish alignment
- UK also willing to discuss details of customs proposals
- Says UK ready to start intensive talks with EU
- PM Boris Johnson To Seek Supreme Court Ruling On No-Deal Brexit
- The Daily Telegraph https://bit.ly/30QS2fZ
Portugal - Ruling Socialists win election but fall short of outright majority
- Socialists improve score but still need allies
- PM pledges to cut debt, but will need hard-left support
- Pro-environment party gets at least four seats
- Far-right party wins first seat since end of dictatorship
Ireland - Sept Consumer Sentiment drops as no-deal Brexit looms: 75.3 vs.
August 77.2
Energy - OPEC's Barkindo says too early to discuss deeper output cuts - TASS
Norway - Norway to spend less cash from wealth fund in 2020, sees 2020
structural deficit at NOK 243.6 Bln vs. 2019 NOK 246.2 Bln
U.S.A. - Low inflation? Nothing to worry about, Fed's George says
U.S.A. - Trump amps up complaints, says Pelosi may be guilty of treason
------------- TOP FIXED INCOME / FX / COMMODITY HEADLINES ----------------
** FOREX **
> Yen creeps higher amid caution over Sino-U.S. trade talks
> EUR/USD buoyant but in stasis, EUR/JPY bias still down
> Over to London-US-China trade worries dent AUD, CNH
> Turkish lira slightly weaker after U.S. statement on Syria operation
> Most Asian currencies subdued; Philippine peso drops
> USD/THB underpinned by risk fears; higher USD/CNH
> Loonie cuts weekly decline as investor nervousness subsides
> POLL-Sterling would get post-Brexit boost if deal is reached
> POLL-Analysts keep faith in Canadian dollar, see positive fundamentals
> POLL-Most CEE currencies seen returning to gains in the next year
> POLL-Latam FX enters final stretch of rocky year at a slow trot
** FIXED INCOME **
> JGBs up initially as BoJ refrains from cutting size of today's JGB buy op
> BoJ op results for 10-40yr bucket weak, long-end bonds erase early gains
> JGB 10s solid, adding to steepening pressure
> JGB 2s +0.5bp at -0.33%, 5s -0.5bp at -0.375%, 10s -1bp at -0.225%
> JGB 20s unch at 0.18%; 30s, 40s untraded in PM
> Malaysia sells govt bonds maturing in 2029 at avg 3.407 pct yield
> Steady job growth caps US 2-yr yield's multi-day drop
> USTs: Private sector job downshift, weak wages restrain sellers pre supply
> Canada's 10-year yield touches a near one-month low at 1.228%
> USD Swap spreads move wider again, curve flattens led by intermediates
> Euro$ strip tilt flattens slightly
> US IG Credit: Primary sees just US$10.938bn in weekly issuance
> US HY Credit: Primary market sells over US$3.2bn this week
> Low inflation? Nothing to worry about, Fed's George says
> Who will buy Lebanon's Eurobond? Not us, say foreign fund managers
> PG&E says it has $34.45 bln in debt financing for reorganization
** COMMODITIES & ENERGY **
> Oil prices on ebb tide as gloom gathers over global economy
> Gold edges higher ahead of Sino-U.S. trade talks
> Copper rises on easing fears about U.S. economy, trade talks in focus
> Corn rises on U.S. crop concerns; wheat, soybeans up for 2nd session
> Raw sugar climbs, gaining more than 10% on week
> Palm edges up on demand recovery, eyes on output data
> Hedge funds cut bullish U.S. crude bets last week - CFTC
> Speculators slash bullish bets on COMEX gold - CFTC
> Funds dump CBOT soy shorts on shrinking U.S. supply, China optimism
> ICE sugar speculators trim bearish bets in latest week - CFTC
> Australia's Fortescue confirms bid to develop Guinea iron ore
> Codelco agrees copper premium at $98/T for Europe, flat from 2019
> New Thyssenkrupp CEO to brief top managers on Tuesday - sources
> Japan's copper output seen rising 2.5% in second half of financial year 19/20
> Chile's Antofagasta seeks to stave off strike at small Antucoya copper mine
> Iran will use every means possible to export its oil - SHANA
> Equinor starts production at giant Johan Sverdrup oilfield
> Oman crude at a premium to Brent shows lingering impact of Saudi attacks
> Oil tanker rates surpass $12 mln after U.S. sanctions on Chinese firm
> Tripoli gov't gives Libya's NOC $1 billion in funding
> Chevron buys 40% stake in three Mexico deepwater blocks from Shell
> U.S. oil drillers cut rigs for seventh week in a row -Baker Hughes
> Trump administration promises biofuel boost to farmers, angering Big Oil
> Venezuela detains local head of oil joint venture with China -sources
> Trump administration opens up drilling on federal land in California
> Occidental puts plans to divest Western Midstream on ice -sources
> Norway's largest pension fund KLP exits oil sands companies
> Officials at Chile's ENAP to face charges over toxic fumes -prosecutor
> Russia's deputy PM returns to idea of grain OPEC creation - Interfax
> In Argentina's Pampas, rain clouds spell hope for arid soils
> Trump administration promises biofuel boost to farmers, angering Big Oil
> Brazil's Mato Grosso soy planting hits 6.65% of area, below last year
> U.S. 2019 corn yield estimate lowered to 167.5 bu/acre -IEG Vantage doc
> US importers stockpile Parmigiano, Provolone as tariffs on EU cheeses loom
> JBS USA to produce pork without growth drug banned by China
> Bangladesh gets offers in 50,000 tonne wheat purchase tender
> Meat industry sues California for animal protection 'overreach'
===================== ** CORPORATE / EQUITY HEADLINES ** =================
** TOP STORIES ** Asian Companies / Indices **
..........................................................................
> Asian shares cheered by U.S. jobs data but traders fear trade talks
> Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
> SE Asia Stocks-Singapore tracks Wall St gains, others little changed
> HSBC to cut up to 10,000 jobs in drive to slash costs -FT
> Malaysia fines 80 people, companies in 1MDB case: anti-graft chief
> As Softbank's Oyo booms, some Indian hotels cry foul and check out
> UAE telecom sees no evidence of ‘security holes’ in Huawei's 5G technology
> Yes Bank files police complaint over 'fake news' on its financial health
> Analysts cut Asian firms' 2019 profit outlook on trade worries
> SoftBank's plans for second mega-fund hit by WeWork debacle
> Keppel settles with embattled Brazilian firm over long-running rig deal
> Sales at Taiwan's Apple supplier Hon Hai flat in September
> Airline bankruptcies surge, leaving rivals vying for planes
> Khazanah says it will not sell PLUS Malaysia after reports of suitors
..........................................................................
** TOP STORIES ** Americas Companies / Indices **
..........................................................................
> 'Goldilocks' jobs data propels Wall St to best day since August
> Apple rises on report of ramp up in iPhone production
> HP Inc falls on $1 bln restructuring charge
> US indices end: Dow +1.42%, S&P 500 +1.42%, Nasdaq +1.40%
> Canada's TSX rises 0.49 percent to 16,449.35
> Wall Street Week Ahead-CapEx outlook another worry ahead of earnings
> Talks between UAW and GM take 'turn for the worse' - union official
> Dish customers regain access to Fox channels
> PayPal becomes first member to exit Facebook's Libra Association
> Regulators weigh 'startle factors' for Boeing 737 MAX pilot training
> Trump administration promises biofuel boost to farmers, angering Big Oil
> Antitrust probers in Congress ask Spotify to detail alleged Apple abuses
> Canada's Trudeau, recovering after blackface scandal, faces key debate
> Canada opposition chief pressed on U.S. citizenship
> Poll: Analysts keep faith in Canadian dollar, see positive fundamentals
> Canada's August trade deficit shrinks as exports break two-month slump
> Reuters News moves into events business with FCBI deal
> Spirit AeroSystems emerges as front-runner for Bombardier's plants -sources
> Ecuador arrests shopkeepers for price rises, protests rage
> In Argentina's Pampas, rain clouds spell hope for arid soils
> Russian deputy prime minister in Venezuela to support Maduro
> Thousands voice outrage over Bolivian leader's response to forest fires
> Keppel settles with embattled Brazilian firm over long-running rig deal
> A 70-year old biking grandmother conquers Bolivia's 'Death Road'
> Officials at Chile's ENAP to face charges over toxic fumes -prosecutor
> Venezuela and Russia come to aid of ally Cuba, but its energy woes persist
> Colombia’s Trasandino pipeline damaged in bombing
> Fernandez ally tells IMF Argentina needs time to grow
> Brazil's Bolsonaro signs telecoms law to boost sector
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
4th Floor, Millennium Bridge House
2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT
t +44 20 7716 8534 / m +44 7775 850465
[email protected]
ADMISI.COM
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- Digesting China FX Reserves and German Factory Orders on very quiet day
for statistics; Kashkari the only notable central bank speaker, leaving
focus on US/China Trade and Brexit talks, US impeachment inquiry
- German Orders poor though as expected, but what might break the continued
fiscal intransigence?
- Iraq violent unrest and US tacit endorsement of Turkish military operation
in Northern Syria add to Middle East flashpoint heat map
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The week gets off to a subdued start in terms of both data and events, with the unexpected dip in China's FX reserves, and another fall in German Factory Orders the only items of any real note statistically. The ultra dovish Kashkari is the only Fed speaker of note, and the official narratives ahead of this week's US/China Trade talks, and UK/EU Brexit talks likely to be the more significant talking points, along with the escalating impeachment inquiry tensions in the U.S.A. There is little doubt that China goes into this week's trade talks with the view that the 'impeachment' inquiry would appear to strengthen their hand, especially with the US/North Korea negotiations taking a sharp turn for the worse, but with Trump being as irrational and unpredictable as he is, this is a risky stance to take. A narrow limited deal would be of course be welcome, though the best that can probably be hoped for is for some form of 'truce' extension. In terms of the German Factory Orders, these were on balance as expected given the modest revision to July, but the fact is that orders have fallen in y/y terms for 15 months consecutively, and recent survey data point to a continued contraction until the end of the year, with weakness broad based. The case for fiscal stimulus is now deafening, but it may require a so-called 'nightmare' outturn for the Thuringen state election on 27 October, i.e. the possibility that the top two spots in vote share terms are taken by the far left (Die Linke) and the Far Right (AfD), with the SPD potentially struggling to achieve the 5% hurdle required to gain seats in the state legislature, and perhaps opting to break the grand coalition at Federal level.
RECAP - Week Ahead snapshot (updated with thoughts on Iraq and Turkey/Syria situations)
The week ahead brings a goodly volume of major data including US CPI & PPI, German and Japanese Orders, Trade and Production in many Eurozone countries, and monthly GDP and the usual raft of accompanying activity data in the UK, which also has BRC Retail Sales.
There are the September FOMC and ECB minutes along with another deluge of BoE, BoJ, ECB & Fed speakers. But it will be the China/US Trade talks, the heightened US/EU Trade tensions, and the brinkmanship around Brexit which command most attention, and likely to feed a seasonally typical and elevated level of volatility in asset markets. Middle East tensions have two additional elements to consider beyond the heightened risk of Iran vs. Saudi/US tensions spilling over to outright conflict, firstly escalating social unrest in Iraq on the back of mass unemployment, govt corruption and deep resentment towards Iranian meddling and influence, with the resultant unexpected resurrection of Iraqi nationalism which many had assumed could get no traction given the still vivid and deep scars from Saddam Hussein's vicious and brutal regime. The wave of disenchanted violence could easily end up threatening Iraq's oil sector, a threat that should not be underestimated. The second is the US decision to tacitly approve (via inaction) a Turkish military incursion into Northern Syria (Kurdish region), which not only threatens a brutal confrontation, but will also incur the wrath of Russia (which is perhaps the US' intention, though this is a top drawer example of 'scorched earth' policy).
Oil prices will continue to be a focal point in the context of the gloom and doom narrative on the global economy, and also have the OPEC monthly Oil Market report to digest, while the agricultural commodities sector looks to the USDA's latest WASDE report (both due on Thursday)
FWIW via Investing Channel: Some thoughts on US rates, bonds & markets in Q4
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
********************
** TODAY'S EVENTS **
********************
# HOLIDAYS: China - National Day; Hong Kong - Chung Yeung Day
Norway 07:00 2020 Budget to be presented
Italy ----- Bank of Italy report on Bank Balance-Sheet Aggregates
Israel 14:00 Bank of Israel rate decision - no change 0.25%
U.S.A. 15:20 Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari participates in a
fireside chat at 2019 Fall Finance and Tribal
Economies Conference
Mexico ----- Finance Minister Urzua, Banco de Mexico's Carstens
speak at a Forbes forum
- Govt Bond Auctions / Buybacks
South Korea 03:30 KRW 1.2 Tln Sept-2024 Terasury
Malaysia 05:00 MYR 3.0 Bln 2029 Govt
Taiwan 05:30 TWD 30 Bln Oct-2029 (#108-9) Govt
Romania 11:00 RON 500 Mln 4.0% 2022 Govt
Israel 11:00 ILS 300 Mln each 0.75% 2022, 2.25% 2028 & 3.75% 2047
and ILS 250 Mln I-L 0.5% 2029 Govts
Albania 12:00 ALL 2.0 Bln 5.53% 2029 Govt
Kazakhstan 12:00 KZT 5.0 Bln 5.5% 2026 Meukam Govts
Bulgaria 12:00 Regular Govt Bond auction
- Corporate Earnings:
• LG Electronics (Q2) • Samsung Electronics (Q2) // Angling Direct (H1) • Sensyne Health (Yr
0.00) • Sberbank (Q2)
..........................................................................
******************
** TODAY'S DATA **
****************** MEDIAN
Ireland 00:01 Sep Consumer Confidence
Japan 00:50 Sep FX Reserves
Indonesia 04:00 Sep FX Reserves
China ----- Sep FX Reserves $3.106 Trln
Philippines ----- Sep FX Reserves
Estonia 06:00 Sep CPI
Japan 06:00 Aug prov. Leading Index 91.7
06:00 Aug prov. Coincident Index 99.4
Denmark 07:00 Aug Industrial Production
Germany 07:00 Aug Factory Orders WDA -0.4% (m) -6.9%
Norway 07:00 Aug Industrial Production WDA
07:00 Aug Manufacturing Output -0.3% (m)
South Africa 07:00 Sep Gross FX Reserves $49.90 Bln
07:00 Sep Net FX Reserves $45.13 Bln
Malaysia 08:00 Sep FX Reserves
Switzerland 08:00 Sep FX Reserves
Czech Rep. 08:00 Aug Industrial Production -2.9%
08:00 Aug Trade Balance CZK -500 Mln
08:00 Aug Construction Output
Hungary 08:00 Aug Industrial Production WDA 4.9%
Austria 08:00 Sep WPI
Sweden 08:30 Sep Budget Balance
Taiwan 09:00 Sep Trade Balance $5.81 Bln
09:00 Sep Exports 1.1%
09:00 Sep Imports -4.0%
Eurozone 09:30 Oct Sentix Investor Confidence -13
Qatar 10:00 Sep Qatar Financial Center PMI
Singapore 10:00 Sep FX Reserves
Israel 11:00 Aug Chain Store Sales
Ireland 11:00 Aug Industrial Production
Serbia 11:00 Sep PPI
Mauritius ----- Sep CPI
Mexico 12:00 Jul Gross Fixed Investment -7.6%
Chile 12:30 Sep Trade Balance
13:00 Aug Nominal Wages
Brazil 14:00 Sep Vehicle Sales & Production (Anfavea)
Canada 15:00 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence
Uruguay 18:00 Aug Unemployment Rate
U.S.A. 20:00 Aug Consumer Credit $16.0 Bln
Costa Rica ----- Sep CPI
El Salvador ----- Sep CPI
Guatemala ----- Sep CPI
Nicaragua ----- Sep CPI
****************** OVERNIGHT HEADLINES *****************
Germany - Aug Factory Orders -0.6% m/m -6.7% y/y vs. f'cast -0.3%/-6.4%
- July Orders revised to -2.1% m/m vs. prov. -2.7% m/m
China - Sept FX Reserves fall to $3.092 Trln vs. f'cast $3.106 Trln,
August $3.107 Trln
Japan - September FX reserves fall to $1.323 Trln vs. Aug $1.332 Trln
Japan - Aug Coincident Index falls 0.4 pt to 99.3, govt cuts assessment
- Aug Leading Index falls 2.0 pts to 91.7
U.K. - Britain's Johnson asks France's Macron to 'push forward' on Brexit
- UK could be flexible on details of Northern Ireland veto, customs plan
- Brexit Secretary says there is flexibility on N.Irish alignment
- UK also willing to discuss details of customs proposals
- Says UK ready to start intensive talks with EU
- PM Boris Johnson To Seek Supreme Court Ruling On No-Deal Brexit
- The Daily Telegraph https://bit.ly/30QS2fZ
Portugal - Ruling Socialists win election but fall short of outright majority
- Socialists improve score but still need allies
- PM pledges to cut debt, but will need hard-left support
- Pro-environment party gets at least four seats
- Far-right party wins first seat since end of dictatorship
Ireland - Sept Consumer Sentiment drops as no-deal Brexit looms: 75.3 vs.
August 77.2
Energy - OPEC's Barkindo says too early to discuss deeper output cuts - TASS
Norway - Norway to spend less cash from wealth fund in 2020, sees 2020
structural deficit at NOK 243.6 Bln vs. 2019 NOK 246.2 Bln
U.S.A. - Low inflation? Nothing to worry about, Fed's George says
U.S.A. - Trump amps up complaints, says Pelosi may be guilty of treason
------------- TOP FIXED INCOME / FX / COMMODITY HEADLINES ----------------
** FOREX **
> Yen creeps higher amid caution over Sino-U.S. trade talks
> EUR/USD buoyant but in stasis, EUR/JPY bias still down
> Over to London-US-China trade worries dent AUD, CNH
> Turkish lira slightly weaker after U.S. statement on Syria operation
> Most Asian currencies subdued; Philippine peso drops
> USD/THB underpinned by risk fears; higher USD/CNH
> Loonie cuts weekly decline as investor nervousness subsides
> POLL-Sterling would get post-Brexit boost if deal is reached
> POLL-Analysts keep faith in Canadian dollar, see positive fundamentals
> POLL-Most CEE currencies seen returning to gains in the next year
> POLL-Latam FX enters final stretch of rocky year at a slow trot
** FIXED INCOME **
> JGBs up initially as BoJ refrains from cutting size of today's JGB buy op
> BoJ op results for 10-40yr bucket weak, long-end bonds erase early gains
> JGB 10s solid, adding to steepening pressure
> JGB 2s +0.5bp at -0.33%, 5s -0.5bp at -0.375%, 10s -1bp at -0.225%
> JGB 20s unch at 0.18%; 30s, 40s untraded in PM
> Malaysia sells govt bonds maturing in 2029 at avg 3.407 pct yield
> Steady job growth caps US 2-yr yield's multi-day drop
> USTs: Private sector job downshift, weak wages restrain sellers pre supply
> Canada's 10-year yield touches a near one-month low at 1.228%
> USD Swap spreads move wider again, curve flattens led by intermediates
> Euro$ strip tilt flattens slightly
> US IG Credit: Primary sees just US$10.938bn in weekly issuance
> US HY Credit: Primary market sells over US$3.2bn this week
> Low inflation? Nothing to worry about, Fed's George says
> Who will buy Lebanon's Eurobond? Not us, say foreign fund managers
> PG&E says it has $34.45 bln in debt financing for reorganization
** COMMODITIES & ENERGY **
> Oil prices on ebb tide as gloom gathers over global economy
> Gold edges higher ahead of Sino-U.S. trade talks
> Copper rises on easing fears about U.S. economy, trade talks in focus
> Corn rises on U.S. crop concerns; wheat, soybeans up for 2nd session
> Raw sugar climbs, gaining more than 10% on week
> Palm edges up on demand recovery, eyes on output data
> Hedge funds cut bullish U.S. crude bets last week - CFTC
> Speculators slash bullish bets on COMEX gold - CFTC
> Funds dump CBOT soy shorts on shrinking U.S. supply, China optimism
> ICE sugar speculators trim bearish bets in latest week - CFTC
> Australia's Fortescue confirms bid to develop Guinea iron ore
> Codelco agrees copper premium at $98/T for Europe, flat from 2019
> New Thyssenkrupp CEO to brief top managers on Tuesday - sources
> Japan's copper output seen rising 2.5% in second half of financial year 19/20
> Chile's Antofagasta seeks to stave off strike at small Antucoya copper mine
> Iran will use every means possible to export its oil - SHANA
> Equinor starts production at giant Johan Sverdrup oilfield
> Oman crude at a premium to Brent shows lingering impact of Saudi attacks
> Oil tanker rates surpass $12 mln after U.S. sanctions on Chinese firm
> Tripoli gov't gives Libya's NOC $1 billion in funding
> Chevron buys 40% stake in three Mexico deepwater blocks from Shell
> U.S. oil drillers cut rigs for seventh week in a row -Baker Hughes
> Trump administration promises biofuel boost to farmers, angering Big Oil
> Venezuela detains local head of oil joint venture with China -sources
> Trump administration opens up drilling on federal land in California
> Occidental puts plans to divest Western Midstream on ice -sources
> Norway's largest pension fund KLP exits oil sands companies
> Officials at Chile's ENAP to face charges over toxic fumes -prosecutor
> Russia's deputy PM returns to idea of grain OPEC creation - Interfax
> In Argentina's Pampas, rain clouds spell hope for arid soils
> Trump administration promises biofuel boost to farmers, angering Big Oil
> Brazil's Mato Grosso soy planting hits 6.65% of area, below last year
> U.S. 2019 corn yield estimate lowered to 167.5 bu/acre -IEG Vantage doc
> US importers stockpile Parmigiano, Provolone as tariffs on EU cheeses loom
> JBS USA to produce pork without growth drug banned by China
> Bangladesh gets offers in 50,000 tonne wheat purchase tender
> Meat industry sues California for animal protection 'overreach'
===================== ** CORPORATE / EQUITY HEADLINES ** =================
** TOP STORIES ** Asian Companies / Indices **
..........................................................................
> Asian shares cheered by U.S. jobs data but traders fear trade talks
> Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
> SE Asia Stocks-Singapore tracks Wall St gains, others little changed
> HSBC to cut up to 10,000 jobs in drive to slash costs -FT
> Malaysia fines 80 people, companies in 1MDB case: anti-graft chief
> As Softbank's Oyo booms, some Indian hotels cry foul and check out
> UAE telecom sees no evidence of ‘security holes’ in Huawei's 5G technology
> Yes Bank files police complaint over 'fake news' on its financial health
> Analysts cut Asian firms' 2019 profit outlook on trade worries
> SoftBank's plans for second mega-fund hit by WeWork debacle
> Keppel settles with embattled Brazilian firm over long-running rig deal
> Sales at Taiwan's Apple supplier Hon Hai flat in September
> Airline bankruptcies surge, leaving rivals vying for planes
> Khazanah says it will not sell PLUS Malaysia after reports of suitors
..........................................................................
** TOP STORIES ** Americas Companies / Indices **
..........................................................................
> 'Goldilocks' jobs data propels Wall St to best day since August
> Apple rises on report of ramp up in iPhone production
> HP Inc falls on $1 bln restructuring charge
> US indices end: Dow +1.42%, S&P 500 +1.42%, Nasdaq +1.40%
> Canada's TSX rises 0.49 percent to 16,449.35
> Wall Street Week Ahead-CapEx outlook another worry ahead of earnings
> Talks between UAW and GM take 'turn for the worse' - union official
> Dish customers regain access to Fox channels
> PayPal becomes first member to exit Facebook's Libra Association
> Regulators weigh 'startle factors' for Boeing 737 MAX pilot training
> Trump administration promises biofuel boost to farmers, angering Big Oil
> Antitrust probers in Congress ask Spotify to detail alleged Apple abuses
> Canada's Trudeau, recovering after blackface scandal, faces key debate
> Canada opposition chief pressed on U.S. citizenship
> Poll: Analysts keep faith in Canadian dollar, see positive fundamentals
> Canada's August trade deficit shrinks as exports break two-month slump
> Reuters News moves into events business with FCBI deal
> Spirit AeroSystems emerges as front-runner for Bombardier's plants -sources
> Ecuador arrests shopkeepers for price rises, protests rage
> In Argentina's Pampas, rain clouds spell hope for arid soils
> Russian deputy prime minister in Venezuela to support Maduro
> Thousands voice outrage over Bolivian leader's response to forest fires
> Keppel settles with embattled Brazilian firm over long-running rig deal
> A 70-year old biking grandmother conquers Bolivia's 'Death Road'
> Officials at Chile's ENAP to face charges over toxic fumes -prosecutor
> Venezuela and Russia come to aid of ally Cuba, but its energy woes persist
> Colombia’s Trasandino pipeline damaged in bombing
> Fernandez ally tells IMF Argentina needs time to grow
> Brazil's Bolsonaro signs telecoms law to boost sector
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
4th Floor, Millennium Bridge House
2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT
t +44 20 7716 8534 / m +44 7775 850465
[email protected]
ADMISI.COM
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Dentalfloss
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and bounce
Dentalfloss
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Gettin a tad messy now
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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line dump
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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missed it
Dentalfloss
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Stupid ..really
the 12019 horizontal was staring at me in the face all morning
Too biz ee with the Dow
Dont tell my misses
the 12019 horizontal was staring at me in the face all morning
Too biz ee with the Dow
Dont tell my misses
