Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

 

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Dax into the open
Do we stay in that uptrend..??

 

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Dax close up

 

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Dow into the open
not too happy...gettin a bit close to a trend break/red

 

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Crunch time

 

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poss overbought...a tad

 

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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 26 July 2019 - ADM ISI

Inbox

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Ostwald, Marc

08:51 (9 minutes ago)

to Marc

- All eyes on US Q2 advance GDP, digesting improving / better than
expected Tokyo CPI, Singapore Production & France Consumer Confidence;
also awaiting Italy Confidence surveys; Russia set for further rate
cut; busy week ahead for central banks, data and earnings

- US Q2 GDP: seen slowing as roles reverse sharply, PCE to rebound sharply,
Net Exports and Inventories to drag, business and housing investment
to remain weak

- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-26-july-2019/

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

There are a number of major data points today, but little doubt that all eyes will be on US Q2 advance GDP, with the overnight Japan Tokyo CPI, Singapore Industrial Production & French Consumer Confidence (all better than expected and/or improving) and upcoming confidence surveys in Italy likely to be little more than statistical roadkill. In event terms it's all about EM central banks, with Russia's Bank Rossi, in a well flagged move, set to cut rates a further 25bps to 7.25%; but elsewhere no change is seen in Angola, Azerbaijan and Colombia. Another busy day for corporate earnings has seen NTT DoCoMo and Tokyo Electron feature in Japan, while more banks report in Europe along with Eni, Nestle, Renault and Suez, and a more modest run in the US has Colgate-Palmolive, Goodyear, McDonald's and Twitter - the latter likely to take a lot of flak from the very poorly received 'upgrade' to the user interface. On the auction front, Italy sells 2-yr CTZ (zero) and 4 & 13-yr inflation-linked BTPei. Eminently some will already be shifting their attention to next week and the run of Fed, BoJ and BoE policy meetings. It will also see plenty of data above all in the USA - Personal Income/PCE, Consumer Confidence, Auto Sales and the week ending labour data. The Euro area has the first round of provisional Q2 GDP and July CPI (Eurozone and national), while Japan has Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment, Australia looks to Q2 CPI, Canada to monthly GDP and Trade, and the UK awaits monetary & credit aggregates and the usual end of month run of surveys, with Thursday delivering what looks likely to be a rather dismal run of Manufacturing PMIs around the world.

** U.S.A. - Q2 advance GDP **
- With the FOMC meeting firmly in the markets headlights, US advance Q2 GDP will closely watched (notwithstanding the caveat that the final version may look very different. The consensus looks for a 1.8% SAAR pace, well down from Q1's 3.1%, and perhaps interestingly stronger than two of the Fed GDPNow estimates (Atlanta 1.3%, NY 1.4%, but St Louis way above at 2.9%). The components will however be sharply different to Q1, with Personal Consumption expected to pace Q2 GDP at 4.0% vs. Q1 's lukewarm 0.9%, by contrast the big contributors to Q1 are expected to drag quite heavily, with the Atlanta Fed model looking for Inventories to deduct 1.1 pptswwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww and Net Exports 0.6 ppt, with overall Business Investment also seen dragging, along with non-residential Construction; the core PCE deflator is seen rebounding to 2.0% from Q1's 1.2%. Annual benchmark revisions are also due, and can end up painting a markedly different profile of recent growth.

========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================

********************

 

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Scalp sells only ...for the time being

 

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bounced off our fib

 

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Our 12420fib worked a treat

 

[inzimam]

like watching paint dry....

 

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Dow at the open

 

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The 50% @ 27217 is rez on the bounce

 

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23.6% was supp at the open

 

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Dax updated