Dentalfloss
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12250 was a pivot yesterday
Trading with point and figure
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C
cantagril
Always a popular choice. Attached is a screenshot of NVP's correlation doodah. Interesting but it doesn't inspire me....that said, I"m long EG from .8975 TP .9011
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Always a popular choice. Attached is a screenshot of NVP's correlation doodah. Interesting but it doesn't inspire me....that said, I"m long EG from .8975 TP .9011
Dentalfloss
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excellent 🍷 🍷 🍷 🍷 🍷 🤞🤞🤞
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
If you stare at it long enough you can clearly see the face of Warren Buffet.
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 19 July 2019 - ADM ISI
- Very modest data schedule has Japan CPI to digest ahead of UK PSNB, Canada
Retail Sales & US Michigan Confidence; smattering of Fed speak & more
corporate earnings; NY Fed Williams comments the mindless talking point
- Week Ahead: ECB meeting and US Q2 GDP in focus, plenty of surveys
including 'flash' PMIs and Ifo the other feature
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-19-july-2019/
- Table: Fed rate probabilities
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
Given that next week brings a quite heavily anticipated ECB meeting, and the ever present overarching theme of US/China and other trade tensions, today's 'macro' schedule looks to be rather thin, and unlikely to have more than a passing impact on thin summer markets. Statistically, there is the overnight Japan national CPI to digest, ahead of UK PSNB (budget), Canadian Retail Sales and US preliminary Michigan Confidence, accompanied by a smattering of BoJ and Fed speakers, whereby the Fed speakers will be going into 'purdah' next week ahead of the FOMC meeting. In US corporate earnings terms, Amex, Blackrock and State Street feature in terms of financials, while Kansas City Southern and Schlumberger are the headliners in terms of real economy companies. Outside of the ECB meeting, next week's schedule is dominated by the US with the advance Q2 GDP reading accompanied by Durable Goods Orders, Existing & New Home Sales and the advance Goods Trade Balance. G7 flash PMIs and the German Ifo survey top a busy run of surveys, while Japan awaits July Tokyo CPI, following on from this weekend's upper house elections. The latter elections are expected to possibly give the Abe led coalition a 2/3 majority, and would in principle allow Abe to revise Japan's pacifist constitution, which would raise the already heightened levels of tensions between Japan and South Korea. Next Tuesday will also see the result of the Tory leadership election, with the presumption being that Boris Johnson will take over as Prime Minister.
Very sadly the main talking point of the day was the market reaction to an admittedly "unwisely" worded speech from NY Fed's Williams (Living Life Near the ZLB - https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2019/wil190718 ), which contained this observation about the need for central banks to act promptly "don’t keep your powder dry— that is, move more quickly to add monetary stimulus than you otherwise might", which algo driven markets instantly assumed meant a 50 bps rate cut was likely at the end of month FOMC meeting. The NY Fed then had to point out that this was not a speech about current monetary policy, but about the lessons learnt over the past 20 years. Nevertheless as the attached table highlights, a 41% chance of a 50 bps rate cut is still priced in, lower than the knee jerk 59% probability, but a lot higher than the 28% after the much stronger than Philly Fed survey.
| Inbox | x |
| 08:48 (42 minutes ago) |
|
- Very modest data schedule has Japan CPI to digest ahead of UK PSNB, Canada
Retail Sales & US Michigan Confidence; smattering of Fed speak & more
corporate earnings; NY Fed Williams comments the mindless talking point
- Week Ahead: ECB meeting and US Q2 GDP in focus, plenty of surveys
including 'flash' PMIs and Ifo the other feature
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-19-july-2019/
- Table: Fed rate probabilities
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
========================== ** THE DAY AHEAD ** ===========================
Given that next week brings a quite heavily anticipated ECB meeting, and the ever present overarching theme of US/China and other trade tensions, today's 'macro' schedule looks to be rather thin, and unlikely to have more than a passing impact on thin summer markets. Statistically, there is the overnight Japan national CPI to digest, ahead of UK PSNB (budget), Canadian Retail Sales and US preliminary Michigan Confidence, accompanied by a smattering of BoJ and Fed speakers, whereby the Fed speakers will be going into 'purdah' next week ahead of the FOMC meeting. In US corporate earnings terms, Amex, Blackrock and State Street feature in terms of financials, while Kansas City Southern and Schlumberger are the headliners in terms of real economy companies. Outside of the ECB meeting, next week's schedule is dominated by the US with the advance Q2 GDP reading accompanied by Durable Goods Orders, Existing & New Home Sales and the advance Goods Trade Balance. G7 flash PMIs and the German Ifo survey top a busy run of surveys, while Japan awaits July Tokyo CPI, following on from this weekend's upper house elections. The latter elections are expected to possibly give the Abe led coalition a 2/3 majority, and would in principle allow Abe to revise Japan's pacifist constitution, which would raise the already heightened levels of tensions between Japan and South Korea. Next Tuesday will also see the result of the Tory leadership election, with the presumption being that Boris Johnson will take over as Prime Minister.
Very sadly the main talking point of the day was the market reaction to an admittedly "unwisely" worded speech from NY Fed's Williams (Living Life Near the ZLB - https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2019/wil190718 ), which contained this observation about the need for central banks to act promptly "don’t keep your powder dry— that is, move more quickly to add monetary stimulus than you otherwise might", which algo driven markets instantly assumed meant a 50 bps rate cut was likely at the end of month FOMC meeting. The NY Fed then had to point out that this was not a speech about current monetary policy, but about the lessons learnt over the past 20 years. Nevertheless as the attached table highlights, a 41% chance of a 50 bps rate cut is still priced in, lower than the knee jerk 59% probability, but a lot higher than the 28% after the much stronger than Philly Fed survey.
Dentalfloss
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sterling strength....or dolllar weakness..??
Dentalfloss
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change inputs
Dentalfloss
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overshot our rez..a tad
who cares
who cares
Dentalfloss
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our green worked a treat
C
cantagril
Always a popular choice. Attached is a screenshot of NVP's correlation doodah. Interesting but it doesn't inspire me....that said, I"m long EG from .8975 TP .9011
Crap exit on that one +10
Now long CAC at 5540 TP 55
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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SPX
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