Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

Dax into the open

 

[Dentalfloss]

pivot area 12430 ish
could easily test that

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax in quite a major supp area
It might not give that up easily

 

[Dentalfloss]

12184-12300 supp area

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dollar in a decent supp area

 

[Dentalfloss]

SPX

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100 the weakest

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax in supp

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

scalps

 

[Dentalfloss]

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 12 July 2019 - ADM ISI

Inbox

x

Ostwald, Marc

08:37 (29 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Digesting very poor Singapore Q2 GDP, partial China Trade data; awaiting
India CPI and Industrial Production, US PPI & Mexico Industrial
Production; hotchpotch of central bank speakers, IEA oil market report

- Singapore Q2 GDP underlines scale of contagion from China slowdown and
US/China trade tensions

- India CPI/Production: CPI expected to remain subdued, pressuring RBI
to cut further; Industrial Production expected to slow after April rebound

- US PPI: energy to drag on headline, trade services the wildcard for core

- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-12-july-2019/

- Chart: Lipper Leveraged Loan fund flows

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The day's schedule is relatively busy, but once the usual noise around the China trade data has subsided, the rest of the day's agenda will probably have to spring some surprises to have more than a passing impact. There is the very large downside miss on the flash estimate of Singapore Q2 GDP to digest, which confirms the extent of the contagion from China to most of East Asia, though a much larger than expected trade surplus for Vietnam underlines that it is benefitting substantially from China/US trade tensions and tariffs. Ahead lie India's CPI and Industrial Production, US PPI and Mexico Industrial Production, which will be accompanied by a hotchpotch of European central bank speakers and the IEA's monthly Oil Market Report. Next week offers a typical week 3 of the month crop of major US, China and UK data, including China Q2 GDP, US & China Retail Sales & Industrial Production, US NAHB, NY & Philly Fed surveys, Housing Starts & Fed Beige Book; UK labour, inflation & budget data along with Retail Sales, with Australia looking to labour data and Canadian awaiting CPI & Retail Sales.

** China - June Trade Balance **
- at the time of writing still waiting on monthly data

** India - June CPI / Industrial Production **
- The consensus looks for CPI to be little changed at 3.13% y/y headline (well below the RBI's 4.0% target), with food price inflation probably remaining very subdued, though perhaps a tad higher then May's 2.03% y/y, thanks to some upward pressures on grains due to a weak winter harvest, and weather impeding summer crop planting, though fuel prices remain on a downward trajectory; core CPI is also likely to edge down towards 4.0% y/y. As such the pressure on the RBI to cut rates again will remain elevated, above all given the expectation that Industrial Production will once again dip back to 2.9% y/y, after rebounding to 3.4% in April from 0.4% in March. It remains all too obvious that the reforms and infrastructure spending announced in last week's budget, and measures to unclog the monetary policy transmission mechanism need to be implemented in short order, if growth is not to slow further, especially with Unemployment close to a five decade high.

** U.S.A. - June PPI **
- Following on from yesterday's modest upside surprise on CPI, forecasts for today's PPI also look for a flat m/m headline and 0.2% m/m on both core measures, with energy likely to pressure headline more emphatically in headline terms, but as ever Trade Services being the key wildcard item, having posted consecutive -0.5% m/m in the prior two months after a 1.1% jump in March. If freight (rail, road, sea) volume data is any guide, then this could well drag again on headline and ex-Food & Energy. That said the overall Services PPI trend has remained relatively robust (last 0.3% m/m). Food Prices may also exercise some upward pressure at a headline level, after falling 0.3% and 0.2% m/m in the first two months of Q2. But as with CPI, barring a substantial miss (+/-0.2% in m/m terms), the fact is that pipeline pressures are modest, and overreacting to a modest miss either side of the median is totally uncalled for.

 

[Dentalfloss]

lined up

 

[Dentalfloss]

scary...

 

[Dentalfloss]

Will it get bought.?

 

[Dentalfloss]

seems to be gettin bought

 

[Dentalfloss]

[yezQUOTE="Dentalfloss, post: 3103492, member: 3076"]
No real sign of any selling...as yet
Earnings start next week
[/QUOTE]
yes

 

[Dentalfloss]

Mornin folks ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ 🤞 🤞 🤞 🤞 👄👄👄💋💋💋

 

[Dentalfloss]

• 💋SPX into the open
• no selling as yet