Trading with point and figure

Dentalfloss · Jul 1, 2019

updated

Dentalfloss · Jul 1, 2019

Dentalfloss · Jul 2, 2019

Mornin folks

Dentalfloss · Jul 2, 2019

SPX into the open

Dentalfloss · Jul 2, 2019

DAX into the open

Dentalfloss · Jul 2, 2019

Dax close up
We had 12585-12629 ....poss a real dog

Dentalfloss · Jul 2, 2019

DXY in rez
2 weeks of data

Dentalfloss · Jul 2, 2019

Dentalfloss · Jul 2, 2019

Ostwald, Marc

08:15 (5 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Typically modest second working day of month has RBA rate cut to digest
along with erratic and unreliable German Retail Sales; ahead lie UK
Construction PMI, US Auto Sales accompanied by RBA, ECB & Fed speak;
UK to sell new 5-yr Gilt

- RBA cuts as expected, leaves door firmly open to further cut

- US Auto Sales: seen drifting back after May surge, better overall pace
than Q1, but still likely to see total 2019 sales flat or slightly
negative

- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-2-july-2019/

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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As is often the case on the second working day of the month, the statistical schedule is very sparse, comprising no more than the farce that is the German Retail Sales data series, UK Construction PMI and US Auto Sales, which accompany an as expected 25 bps rate cut to 1.0 from Australia's RBA, with the door open to at least one more 25 bps cut in H2 2019. Govt bond supply comes via way of a new 2025 UK Gilt, and there is a smattering of Fed and ECB speak. US Auto Sales are seen dropping back to 17.0 Mln SAAR pace after posting a much stronger than expected 17.30 Mln in May, still suggesting a firmer pace of sales than the first four months of 2019, but with 2019 sales most likely to be flat or modestly negative for the year as a whole. Markets continue to be torn between the brute force of financial repression and the accompanying hunt for income and returns in riskier assets, given the near zero levels on offer in govt bonds and the meagre risk premium spreads on offer in the credit universe, while hoping (almost against hope) that central banks can once again prove to be their knights in shining armour, even if a cold light of day assessment makes it patently obvious that political determination and fiscal policy will be far more effective to combat and ease the pain of what are in many cases structural headwinds for the global and domestic economies, above and beyond the cloud of protectionism, trade tensions and populism.