Dentalfloss
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Cable
Boris bounce under pressure
Boris bounce under pressure
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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EG in supp
will it hold.?
will it hold.?
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Dax in rez#
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above 12585..?
poss mega rez
poss mega rez
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12585...there is some sort of pivot in that area
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Dentalfloss
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12585-12600 first supp area
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 1 July 2019 - ADM ISI
- Manufacturing PMIs in focus as new month and quarter kick off; UK and
Eurozone Monetary aggregates, US Construction Spending also due; BUT
US/China trade 'truce', OPEC+ production cut extension 'deal' likely
to subordinate surveys and data as EU struggles to agree on new EU
Commission appointments
- Asia manufacturing PMIs continue to signal trough not yet reached for
sector; Eurozone, UK and US readings unlikely to paint different picture
- US/China trade: 'truce' and further talks welcome, but do not change
fact of existing tariffs continuing to take their toll on world economy
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-1-july-2019/
** For those attending either of the events below, I look forward to sharing some thoughts via the macro panel discussions, and / or catching up one to one at the events:
Tactical Trading Investor Forum 1 July - https://www.f4.events/events/9793
or this tomorrow:
Annual GAIM conference 2 July: https://finance.knect365.com/gaim/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Manufacturing PMIs dominate the data schedule (see preview in Week Ahead), with Eurozone M3 & Credit and US Construction Spending also due. However it will be markets' reaction to the trade 'truce' between the US and China, and a seemingly 'fait accompli' OPEC 'deal' (between Russia and KSA) to extend oil current production cuts for a further 6 to 9 months that will be most instructive. To be sure, it is good news that there has been no escalation of US/China tensions, but aside from the easing of sanctions on Huawei, the rest of the tariffs are still in place and they are hurting in China and in the USA, just take a look at any measure of commercial road, rail or west coast port traffic, and they are well down on 2018. A 'risk on' rally may seem appropriate for the automated, financially repressed markets, but they have been so fully priced for at least 100 bps of Fed rate cuts and some symbolic ECB/BoJ easing, that it will either be a case of being "better to travel than arrive", or a needing to re-price for less easing, which is likely to spell trouble for rates, bonds and credit, above all when most specs and investors are long pf those assets. Secondly even 100 bps of Fed rate cuts would be symbolic, and the material impact on economy likely to limited, with it being quite clear that it is fiscal stimulus which needs to "step up to the plate". The only problem is that with the world so awash with debt, i.e. 235% of global GDP's worth, the really appropriate question is it time for a debt jubilee? Are markets and politicians more disconnected from the real economy than ever before? I am again reminded of this from Jacob Burckhardt in the late 19th century: '...the state incurs debts for politics, war, and other higher causes and 'progress'. . . . The assumption is that the future will honour this relationship in perpetuity. The state has learned from the merchants and industrialists how to exploit credit; it defies the nation ever to let it go into bankruptcy. Alongside all swindlers the state now stands there as swindler-in-chief."
Asia Manufacturing PMIs did not make for encouraging reading, and the profile of Eurozone, UK and US readings are unlikely to be much better, as outlined below. The simple observation is that the trough for the manufacturing sector globally has not yet been reached, and it will more than likely require something more positive than 'at least the tensions between the US and China have not got worse'
RECAP - The Week Ahead - Preview:
A new month and quarter will start (hopefully) with some clarity on whether H2 2019 will see a truce or a further escalation of the US/China trade war, even if this will certainly not preclude a re-ignition at some point in the near or medium term, or some other bilateral tensions escalating. Be that as it may the pattern of the statistical schedule is very familiar for the first week of the month/quarter, with PMIs around the world dominating the start of the week along with Japan's quarterly Tankan, while the back end of the week has German Factory Orders and US & Canadian labour data. On the central bank front, the Fed narrative will be front and centre, while Australia's RBA is expected to cut rates again. Thursday's US Independence Day holiday is likely to ensure that trading activity in the new quarter gets off to a relatively slow start. The Eurozone dominates the govt bond auction schedule, with Germany selling a new 5-yr ahead of multi-maturity sales in France and Spain, but overall total issuance at around EUR 17 Bln will be dwarfed by redemptions (EUR 29 Bln) and coupons (EUR 8 Bln), mostly Germany and Finland. The UK also sells a new 5-yr and reopens the current 30yr Gilt. OPEC holds its long awaited meeting, with the current production cap for OPEC+ expected to be maintained, despite some resistance from Russia, and amid heightened tensions with Iran; a few smaller GCC countries' oil ministers have floated the idea of additional production cuts, but this looks to have little chance of getting any traction.
- As is increasingly typical, consensus forecasts for the PMIs look for little change relative to May and or June 'flash' readings, whereby the overall profile of manufacturing (worldwide) is seen expected to remain subdued or in contraction, while Services activity is generally seen at solid levels. The US Manufacturing ISM is forecast to drop to a 3 year low of 51.2 from 52.1, echoing the weak PMI and a drop in fall regional Fed surveys on the month. The flash Eurozone PMIs implied that Italy and / or Spain would be a particular drag, given that the French and German readings were either better than expected or little changed. A broad array of surveys (excepting the latest RICS) indicate that Brexit related uncertainties continue to weigh on the UK economy, with Manufacturing & Construction PMI seen below 50.0 though slightly better than May, while Services is forecast unchanged at a lowly (by UK standards) 51.0. Japanese surveys have been rather more down downbeat than actual hard data (e.g. Orders and Production), with forecasts for Monday's Q2 Tankan assuming a drop in practically all key DIs, though All Industry CapEx is seen at 8.1% vs. 1.6% in Q1.
- While US labour data have certainly lost some of their previous cache as the number one data report globally, there will be considerable sensitivity to the June labour report, after the big downside surprise of 75K in May, with the consensus looking for a rebound to 150K, and revisions need to be closely watched. Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to post a 0.3% m/m rise to inch the y/y rate back up to 3.2%, with the Unemployment Rate seen holding at its cyclical low of 3.6%. Trade Balance, Factory Goods Orders, Construction Spending are also due, along with US Auto Sales, which are seen dropping back to 16.95 Mln SAAR pace after posting a much stronger than expected 17.30 Mln in May.
- In Germany a close eye will be kept on the latest German Unemployment data, after a surprise though very 'technical' 60K jump in May, with a flat m/m reading expected to leave the rate unchanged at 5.0%. But the key point of focus will be Factory Orders, with a marginal -0.1% m/m seen after some signs of stabilization in April & March, following steep declines in January & February; the data series is inherently volatile, but given the run of dismal sector surveys, there is no reason to expect an upside surprise. Germany also has its ridiculously poor Retail Sales, a data series that has zero credibility. France has Trade data, while the UK looks to various House Price measures, along with monetary and lending aggregates. Canada's labour data have been very robust in the past two months, above all Employment (+134.2K total), and there may be some payback in this report, even though June generally tends to see relatively robust job creation. Key Australian data will be published after an expected further 25 bps rate cut 1.0% by the RBA, with a lukewarm 0.1% m/m forecast for Retail Sales (vs. April -0.2%), while Building Approvals are seen unchanged in m/m terms, with the y/y slide seen decelerating to -21.5% vs. April's -24.2%. Sweden's Riksbank is expected to hold rates at -25 bps, but the question is whether it sticks to projecting a very low upward gradient rate trajectory, or if the latest 'dovish' turns by the Fed, ECB & BoJ inject a note of renewed caution. There are plenty of Fed, BoJ, BoE, ECB and Riksbank speakers throughout the week.
- Politically, the new week should in theory tell us who will be taking over the positions in the EU, including Draghi's successor as ECB chief; while some sort of 'can kicking' exercise is expected to cobbled together in respect of an excessive deficit procedure for Italy. China also hosts its equivalent of a 'summer Davos' in Dalian, which will be of particular interest in the wake of the G20 meeting.
| Inbox | x |
| 08:32 (8 minutes ago) |
|
- Manufacturing PMIs in focus as new month and quarter kick off; UK and
Eurozone Monetary aggregates, US Construction Spending also due; BUT
US/China trade 'truce', OPEC+ production cut extension 'deal' likely
to subordinate surveys and data as EU struggles to agree on new EU
Commission appointments
- Asia manufacturing PMIs continue to signal trough not yet reached for
sector; Eurozone, UK and US readings unlikely to paint different picture
- US/China trade: 'truce' and further talks welcome, but do not change
fact of existing tariffs continuing to take their toll on world economy
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-1-july-2019/
** For those attending either of the events below, I look forward to sharing some thoughts via the macro panel discussions, and / or catching up one to one at the events:
Tactical Trading Investor Forum 1 July - https://www.f4.events/events/9793
or this tomorrow:
Annual GAIM conference 2 July: https://finance.knect365.com/gaim/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Manufacturing PMIs dominate the data schedule (see preview in Week Ahead), with Eurozone M3 & Credit and US Construction Spending also due. However it will be markets' reaction to the trade 'truce' between the US and China, and a seemingly 'fait accompli' OPEC 'deal' (between Russia and KSA) to extend oil current production cuts for a further 6 to 9 months that will be most instructive. To be sure, it is good news that there has been no escalation of US/China tensions, but aside from the easing of sanctions on Huawei, the rest of the tariffs are still in place and they are hurting in China and in the USA, just take a look at any measure of commercial road, rail or west coast port traffic, and they are well down on 2018. A 'risk on' rally may seem appropriate for the automated, financially repressed markets, but they have been so fully priced for at least 100 bps of Fed rate cuts and some symbolic ECB/BoJ easing, that it will either be a case of being "better to travel than arrive", or a needing to re-price for less easing, which is likely to spell trouble for rates, bonds and credit, above all when most specs and investors are long pf those assets. Secondly even 100 bps of Fed rate cuts would be symbolic, and the material impact on economy likely to limited, with it being quite clear that it is fiscal stimulus which needs to "step up to the plate". The only problem is that with the world so awash with debt, i.e. 235% of global GDP's worth, the really appropriate question is it time for a debt jubilee? Are markets and politicians more disconnected from the real economy than ever before? I am again reminded of this from Jacob Burckhardt in the late 19th century: '...the state incurs debts for politics, war, and other higher causes and 'progress'. . . . The assumption is that the future will honour this relationship in perpetuity. The state has learned from the merchants and industrialists how to exploit credit; it defies the nation ever to let it go into bankruptcy. Alongside all swindlers the state now stands there as swindler-in-chief."
Asia Manufacturing PMIs did not make for encouraging reading, and the profile of Eurozone, UK and US readings are unlikely to be much better, as outlined below. The simple observation is that the trough for the manufacturing sector globally has not yet been reached, and it will more than likely require something more positive than 'at least the tensions between the US and China have not got worse'
RECAP - The Week Ahead - Preview:
A new month and quarter will start (hopefully) with some clarity on whether H2 2019 will see a truce or a further escalation of the US/China trade war, even if this will certainly not preclude a re-ignition at some point in the near or medium term, or some other bilateral tensions escalating. Be that as it may the pattern of the statistical schedule is very familiar for the first week of the month/quarter, with PMIs around the world dominating the start of the week along with Japan's quarterly Tankan, while the back end of the week has German Factory Orders and US & Canadian labour data. On the central bank front, the Fed narrative will be front and centre, while Australia's RBA is expected to cut rates again. Thursday's US Independence Day holiday is likely to ensure that trading activity in the new quarter gets off to a relatively slow start. The Eurozone dominates the govt bond auction schedule, with Germany selling a new 5-yr ahead of multi-maturity sales in France and Spain, but overall total issuance at around EUR 17 Bln will be dwarfed by redemptions (EUR 29 Bln) and coupons (EUR 8 Bln), mostly Germany and Finland. The UK also sells a new 5-yr and reopens the current 30yr Gilt. OPEC holds its long awaited meeting, with the current production cap for OPEC+ expected to be maintained, despite some resistance from Russia, and amid heightened tensions with Iran; a few smaller GCC countries' oil ministers have floated the idea of additional production cuts, but this looks to have little chance of getting any traction.
- As is increasingly typical, consensus forecasts for the PMIs look for little change relative to May and or June 'flash' readings, whereby the overall profile of manufacturing (worldwide) is seen expected to remain subdued or in contraction, while Services activity is generally seen at solid levels. The US Manufacturing ISM is forecast to drop to a 3 year low of 51.2 from 52.1, echoing the weak PMI and a drop in fall regional Fed surveys on the month. The flash Eurozone PMIs implied that Italy and / or Spain would be a particular drag, given that the French and German readings were either better than expected or little changed. A broad array of surveys (excepting the latest RICS) indicate that Brexit related uncertainties continue to weigh on the UK economy, with Manufacturing & Construction PMI seen below 50.0 though slightly better than May, while Services is forecast unchanged at a lowly (by UK standards) 51.0. Japanese surveys have been rather more down downbeat than actual hard data (e.g. Orders and Production), with forecasts for Monday's Q2 Tankan assuming a drop in practically all key DIs, though All Industry CapEx is seen at 8.1% vs. 1.6% in Q1.
- While US labour data have certainly lost some of their previous cache as the number one data report globally, there will be considerable sensitivity to the June labour report, after the big downside surprise of 75K in May, with the consensus looking for a rebound to 150K, and revisions need to be closely watched. Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to post a 0.3% m/m rise to inch the y/y rate back up to 3.2%, with the Unemployment Rate seen holding at its cyclical low of 3.6%. Trade Balance, Factory Goods Orders, Construction Spending are also due, along with US Auto Sales, which are seen dropping back to 16.95 Mln SAAR pace after posting a much stronger than expected 17.30 Mln in May.
- In Germany a close eye will be kept on the latest German Unemployment data, after a surprise though very 'technical' 60K jump in May, with a flat m/m reading expected to leave the rate unchanged at 5.0%. But the key point of focus will be Factory Orders, with a marginal -0.1% m/m seen after some signs of stabilization in April & March, following steep declines in January & February; the data series is inherently volatile, but given the run of dismal sector surveys, there is no reason to expect an upside surprise. Germany also has its ridiculously poor Retail Sales, a data series that has zero credibility. France has Trade data, while the UK looks to various House Price measures, along with monetary and lending aggregates. Canada's labour data have been very robust in the past two months, above all Employment (+134.2K total), and there may be some payback in this report, even though June generally tends to see relatively robust job creation. Key Australian data will be published after an expected further 25 bps rate cut 1.0% by the RBA, with a lukewarm 0.1% m/m forecast for Retail Sales (vs. April -0.2%), while Building Approvals are seen unchanged in m/m terms, with the y/y slide seen decelerating to -21.5% vs. April's -24.2%. Sweden's Riksbank is expected to hold rates at -25 bps, but the question is whether it sticks to projecting a very low upward gradient rate trajectory, or if the latest 'dovish' turns by the Fed, ECB & BoJ inject a note of renewed caution. There are plenty of Fed, BoJ, BoE, ECB and Riksbank speakers throughout the week.
- Politically, the new week should in theory tell us who will be taking over the positions in the EU, including Draghi's successor as ECB chief; while some sort of 'can kicking' exercise is expected to cobbled together in respect of an excessive deficit procedure for Italy. China also hosts its equivalent of a 'summer Davos' in Dalian, which will be of particular interest in the wake of the G20 meeting.
Dentalfloss
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and dump
excellent stuff
excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Stops tight
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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then....you must explain why supp is coming in @12550 area
Dentalfloss
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45 deg trendline supp..may/may not hold
but....you have a guide
but....you have a guide
Dentalfloss
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and you have poss rez marked on the chart
Dentalfloss
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random data...nothing is guaranteed
