Dentalfloss
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tricky
Trading with point and figure
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a tad out on rez...who cares
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 7 June 2019 - ADM ISI
- Digesting Japan Wages & Spending, dire German Trade & output and Buba
forecast cuts, soft French output and divergent comments on US/Mexico
negotiations; awaiting US and Canada labour data, G7 Finance Ministers
and Central Bank meeting
- Germany: poor production and trade rather unsurprising given survey data,
Bundesbank forecast cuts lean heavily against Draghi economic narrative
at ECB presser
- US labour data: ADP shocker probably best ignored given other anecdotal
evidence; expected to underline labour demand strong, but wages pressures
at best modest
- Canada labour data: reactive correction to outsized April gain likely,
but Unemployment Rate seen close to cyclical low; base effects to
predicate dip in wages
- Charts / Tables: Fed rate probabilities, Brent oil future; Global Oil
supply disruptions & Global Oil Demand
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-7-june-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
There is a busy schedule of data and events to end the week, even if politics and trade tensions will doubtless continue to offer the potential for 'off piste' headlines that ride roughshod over macro inputs, with the Dragon Boat Festival having closed markets in China, Hong Kong & Taiwan. Statistically, there are Japan's Wages (negative but better than expected) and Household Spending (weaker than expected), China FX Reserves, French and German Industrial Production and Trade along with Norwegian monthly GDP to digest, while ahead lie labour market reports in the US and Canada, and consumer inflation indices in Brazil and Mexico. On the events schedule, UK PM May stands down as leader of the Conservative Party, G7 Finance Ministers and central bank governors start their June summit, with a smattering of Fed speak thrown in for good measure. Next week will obviously continue to be dominated by trade and politics, though there the US, China, Japan and UK all have plenty of first division data to digest - US - CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, JOLTS; China - Trade, CPI/PPI & Lending; UK monthly GDP, Industrial Production, Trade & Construction Output; Japan - rev. Q1 GDP, Machinery Orders & PPI. The news flow on the US/Mexico immigration and trade tariffs talks continues to be mixed, with markets erring on the side of no tariffs, though that is anything but assured; the deadline is Monday. The comments from PBOC governor Yi Gang on some 'flexibility' on CNY FX valuations being 'good' would appear to suggest that China is as well as the US appears to be to engage in a currency war, which hardly bodes well for getting over the current impasse in trade talks.
** Germany / France - April Trade & Industrial Production **
- As has been the case for some time, the French output data were better than the numbers from Germany, though at Flat m/m 0.5% y/y for French Manufacturing Output, which followed a fall of 1.1% in March, the sector picture in France is hardly encouraging. As for Germany, another much worse than expected Industrial Production (-1.9% m/m -1.8% y/y vs. forecast -0.5% m/m), accompanied by a sharp 3.7% m/m slide in Exports vs. expectations of -0.9% and March's +1.6% m/m fit well with recent survey data, but underline that the Q1 GDP recovery was mainly due to transitory factors, and that Q2 may even dip back into negative territory. Adding insult to injury and running against Draghi's suggestion that incoming economic data were not bad, the Bundesbank has this morning slashed its 2019 GDP forecast to 0.6% y/y from 1.6%, and shaded forecasts down for 2020 & 2021, even if it was at some pains to stress that it expected H2 2019 to see a marked improvement.
** U.S.A. - May labour market report **
- The ADP shocker (+27K) on Wednesday will clearly skew market expectations to the downside of the median of 180K for headline Payrolls and 172K for Private Payrolls. However as is well documented the ADP report is a very unreliable predictor of the official data, and the ADP report was above all peculiar, in so far as the primary weakness was from a -52K in Small business employment (Manufacturing -33k & Services -19k), while medium and large size businesses expanded. There any number of reasons to be suspicious about the ADP report, firstly weekly jobless claims were very steady during the month (range 212K to 228K); the ISM surveys showed Employment Indices rising in May, and while regional surveys were mixed, there was nothing to suggest this sort of sudden hiring freeze, and the Beige Book said: "Employment continued to increase nationwide, with most Districts reporting modest or moderate job growth and others reporting slight growth, an assessment similar to the previous reporting period. Solid hiring demand was noted for retail, business services, technical, manufacturing, and construction jobs and by staffing agencies in general. However, stronger employment growth continued to be constrained by tight labour markets, with Districts citing shortages of both high- and low-skill workers." None of which is conclusive, but certainly raises a lot of reasons to doubt the ADP report . The consensus forecast as ever reflect nothing more than forecasters look at longer run averages, and adjusting up/down based on the strength or weakness of the prior month, which will as ever be subject to revision. Be that as it may, the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at a 50-yr low of 3.6%, and it will be hoped that the U-6 Underemployment Rate hold its cyclical low of 7.3%, and perhaps a rebound in the Labour Force Participation Rate (62.8%) after last month's drop. However the markets' focus will be Average Hourly Earnings, where an expected 0.3% m/m would see the y/y rate hold at 3.2%, and Average Weekly Hours are seen reverting to the cyclical high at 34.5. While the US labour report has been waning in terms of market impact over the past 12 to 18 months, the hefty skew in terms of market Fed rate expectations suggests that surprises may garner rather more reaction than has been the case for much of the past year.
** Canada - May Employment **
- After an outsized 106.5K jump in April Employment (of which +73K was full-time), a subdued +5K gain is expected, though a modest setback would come as no surprise, and would be seen as a reactive correction, but with underlying labour demand still seen as strong, while the Unemployment Rate expected to stay close to its November cyclical low (5.6%) at 5.7%. Average Hourly Wages are expected to drift back to 2.4% y/y from 2.6%, primarily due to adverse base effects (May 2018 marked the recent peak with a jump to 3.93%). But as much as today's data is of interest from a macro perspective, politics, trade developments and oil prices will in the near-term be the ultimate arbiter of the direction of travel for the BoC, CAD and Canadian asset prices.
| Inbox | x |
| 08:39 (17 minutes ago) |
|
- Digesting Japan Wages & Spending, dire German Trade & output and Buba
forecast cuts, soft French output and divergent comments on US/Mexico
negotiations; awaiting US and Canada labour data, G7 Finance Ministers
and Central Bank meeting
- Germany: poor production and trade rather unsurprising given survey data,
Bundesbank forecast cuts lean heavily against Draghi economic narrative
at ECB presser
- US labour data: ADP shocker probably best ignored given other anecdotal
evidence; expected to underline labour demand strong, but wages pressures
at best modest
- Canada labour data: reactive correction to outsized April gain likely,
but Unemployment Rate seen close to cyclical low; base effects to
predicate dip in wages
- Charts / Tables: Fed rate probabilities, Brent oil future; Global Oil
supply disruptions & Global Oil Demand
- Audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-7-june-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
There is a busy schedule of data and events to end the week, even if politics and trade tensions will doubtless continue to offer the potential for 'off piste' headlines that ride roughshod over macro inputs, with the Dragon Boat Festival having closed markets in China, Hong Kong & Taiwan. Statistically, there are Japan's Wages (negative but better than expected) and Household Spending (weaker than expected), China FX Reserves, French and German Industrial Production and Trade along with Norwegian monthly GDP to digest, while ahead lie labour market reports in the US and Canada, and consumer inflation indices in Brazil and Mexico. On the events schedule, UK PM May stands down as leader of the Conservative Party, G7 Finance Ministers and central bank governors start their June summit, with a smattering of Fed speak thrown in for good measure. Next week will obviously continue to be dominated by trade and politics, though there the US, China, Japan and UK all have plenty of first division data to digest - US - CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, JOLTS; China - Trade, CPI/PPI & Lending; UK monthly GDP, Industrial Production, Trade & Construction Output; Japan - rev. Q1 GDP, Machinery Orders & PPI. The news flow on the US/Mexico immigration and trade tariffs talks continues to be mixed, with markets erring on the side of no tariffs, though that is anything but assured; the deadline is Monday. The comments from PBOC governor Yi Gang on some 'flexibility' on CNY FX valuations being 'good' would appear to suggest that China is as well as the US appears to be to engage in a currency war, which hardly bodes well for getting over the current impasse in trade talks.
** Germany / France - April Trade & Industrial Production **
- As has been the case for some time, the French output data were better than the numbers from Germany, though at Flat m/m 0.5% y/y for French Manufacturing Output, which followed a fall of 1.1% in March, the sector picture in France is hardly encouraging. As for Germany, another much worse than expected Industrial Production (-1.9% m/m -1.8% y/y vs. forecast -0.5% m/m), accompanied by a sharp 3.7% m/m slide in Exports vs. expectations of -0.9% and March's +1.6% m/m fit well with recent survey data, but underline that the Q1 GDP recovery was mainly due to transitory factors, and that Q2 may even dip back into negative territory. Adding insult to injury and running against Draghi's suggestion that incoming economic data were not bad, the Bundesbank has this morning slashed its 2019 GDP forecast to 0.6% y/y from 1.6%, and shaded forecasts down for 2020 & 2021, even if it was at some pains to stress that it expected H2 2019 to see a marked improvement.
** U.S.A. - May labour market report **
- The ADP shocker (+27K) on Wednesday will clearly skew market expectations to the downside of the median of 180K for headline Payrolls and 172K for Private Payrolls. However as is well documented the ADP report is a very unreliable predictor of the official data, and the ADP report was above all peculiar, in so far as the primary weakness was from a -52K in Small business employment (Manufacturing -33k & Services -19k), while medium and large size businesses expanded. There any number of reasons to be suspicious about the ADP report, firstly weekly jobless claims were very steady during the month (range 212K to 228K); the ISM surveys showed Employment Indices rising in May, and while regional surveys were mixed, there was nothing to suggest this sort of sudden hiring freeze, and the Beige Book said: "Employment continued to increase nationwide, with most Districts reporting modest or moderate job growth and others reporting slight growth, an assessment similar to the previous reporting period. Solid hiring demand was noted for retail, business services, technical, manufacturing, and construction jobs and by staffing agencies in general. However, stronger employment growth continued to be constrained by tight labour markets, with Districts citing shortages of both high- and low-skill workers." None of which is conclusive, but certainly raises a lot of reasons to doubt the ADP report . The consensus forecast as ever reflect nothing more than forecasters look at longer run averages, and adjusting up/down based on the strength or weakness of the prior month, which will as ever be subject to revision. Be that as it may, the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at a 50-yr low of 3.6%, and it will be hoped that the U-6 Underemployment Rate hold its cyclical low of 7.3%, and perhaps a rebound in the Labour Force Participation Rate (62.8%) after last month's drop. However the markets' focus will be Average Hourly Earnings, where an expected 0.3% m/m would see the y/y rate hold at 3.2%, and Average Weekly Hours are seen reverting to the cyclical high at 34.5. While the US labour report has been waning in terms of market impact over the past 12 to 18 months, the hefty skew in terms of market Fed rate expectations suggests that surprises may garner rather more reaction than has been the case for much of the past year.
** Canada - May Employment **
- After an outsized 106.5K jump in April Employment (of which +73K was full-time), a subdued +5K gain is expected, though a modest setback would come as no surprise, and would be seen as a reactive correction, but with underlying labour demand still seen as strong, while the Unemployment Rate expected to stay close to its November cyclical low (5.6%) at 5.7%. Average Hourly Wages are expected to drift back to 2.4% y/y from 2.6%, primarily due to adverse base effects (May 2018 marked the recent peak with a jump to 3.93%). But as much as today's data is of interest from a macro perspective, politics, trade developments and oil prices will in the near-term be the ultimate arbiter of the direction of travel for the BoC, CAD and Canadian asset prices.
Dentalfloss
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General look
a tad overstretched
a tad overstretched
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We wuz way off on rez /Dow we had 25900 marked that did not matter as we were reading the price action.....not levels
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US May 2019 Labour report: "Weak Payrolls plays into market shift on Fed rate view, but still far from conclusive"
US May 2019 Labour report: "Weak Payrolls plays into market shift on rate view, but still far from conclusive"
a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - For once, the ADP report did offer a fairly good 'steer' on Payrolls, which were soft at 75K, and even softer given the net 75K downward revision to the two prior months. Longer term averages also dropped quite sharply 151K and 175K, though at this stage of the cycle, this is still signalling solid, if no longer robust labour demand. In the detail, and as flagged by the ADP report, there was particular weakness in Construction (4K vs. prior 30K), as well as Govt (-15K) & Financial Activities (3K), along with a continued contraction in Retail & Wholesale, in other words relatively broad based, with only a very marginal impact from bad weather effects in contrast to February. It is the second sub 100K reading in four months, even if February's soft reading clearly owed a lot to govt shutdown and weather, and this does offers a point for some concern. But for the time being, it would be premature to suggest that the labour market has turned,
b) Unemployment Rate / Household survey - Essentially in line with forecasts with the Unemployment Rate holding at its 50-yr low of 3.6%, and encouragingly the U-6 Underemployment Rate dropping to 7.1% from 7.3%, though the Participation Rate remained at the lower end of its recent range at 62.8%. In the detail, Employment growth was rather stronger than Payrolls at +113K, though Unemployment rebounded 64K after a sharp 387K drop in April. On balance rather more solid than the establishment survey.
c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - A modest miss on Average Hourly Earnings at 0.2% m/m 3.1% y/y vs. a consensus of 0.2%/3.2%, and overall still suggesting that despite a number of sectors seeing skills shortages, upward pressures on wages remain at best very modest. Average Weekly Hours were unchanged at 34.4 against a forecast of 34.5, though Manufacturing Hours rose 0.2%, which along with the modest 8K rise in Manufacturing Payrolls should see result in a small gain for Industrial Production. The lack of any obvious weakness in this component also tends to lean against over-interpreting the payrolls weakness.
d) Market reaction - The USD was the primary victim of the report, as Euro$ futures and Treasuries continued their sharp gains for the week, with the market now discounting a 32% chance of a JUNE Fed rate cut, and pretty much 'slam dunk' on July with a 76% probability, and a total of 3 cuts priced in by December. It has to be added that if that amount of easing was delivered by the Fed, then one would have to use the word 'panic'. USD Index (DXY) is now toying with key trendline support at 96.50. There remains a good deal of cognitive dissonance between the doom and gloom being signalled by the market rates trajectory, and equity indices continuing to sustain their sharp gains on the week, with the VIX languishing towards its recent lows (sub 16.0%). But then again this remains an era of major financial repression, and there is still many trillions of central bank QE floating around the system looking for a more fruitful (in terms of yield/return) than the abject 1.84% on US 2yr and 2.06% on US 10 yr Treasuries. There is perhaps some vulnerability in the rates space to some pre-weekend profit-taking, given the extent of the falls in rates and yields this week.
Trump's decision on the Mexico tariffs is obviously the next major hurdle, with mixed messages coming from the US administration, on the one hand lauding Mexican proposals on immigration, while emphasizing that there is still work to do, and that the plan remains to implement the tariffs on Monday.
Also worth noting north of the border, another much stronger than expected set of Canadian labour data, with the Unemployment Rate falling to a 43-year low of 5.4%, Employment +27.7K (all full-time) - if oil prices can stabilize or even rally, the negative sentiment on the C$ may start to ebb in a more sustained way
Week Ahead Video preview:
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
| Inbox | x |
| 14:53 (2 hours ago) |
|
US May 2019 Labour report: "Weak Payrolls plays into market shift on rate view, but still far from conclusive"
a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - For once, the ADP report did offer a fairly good 'steer' on Payrolls, which were soft at 75K, and even softer given the net 75K downward revision to the two prior months. Longer term averages also dropped quite sharply 151K and 175K, though at this stage of the cycle, this is still signalling solid, if no longer robust labour demand. In the detail, and as flagged by the ADP report, there was particular weakness in Construction (4K vs. prior 30K), as well as Govt (-15K) & Financial Activities (3K), along with a continued contraction in Retail & Wholesale, in other words relatively broad based, with only a very marginal impact from bad weather effects in contrast to February. It is the second sub 100K reading in four months, even if February's soft reading clearly owed a lot to govt shutdown and weather, and this does offers a point for some concern. But for the time being, it would be premature to suggest that the labour market has turned,
b) Unemployment Rate / Household survey - Essentially in line with forecasts with the Unemployment Rate holding at its 50-yr low of 3.6%, and encouragingly the U-6 Underemployment Rate dropping to 7.1% from 7.3%, though the Participation Rate remained at the lower end of its recent range at 62.8%. In the detail, Employment growth was rather stronger than Payrolls at +113K, though Unemployment rebounded 64K after a sharp 387K drop in April. On balance rather more solid than the establishment survey.
c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - A modest miss on Average Hourly Earnings at 0.2% m/m 3.1% y/y vs. a consensus of 0.2%/3.2%, and overall still suggesting that despite a number of sectors seeing skills shortages, upward pressures on wages remain at best very modest. Average Weekly Hours were unchanged at 34.4 against a forecast of 34.5, though Manufacturing Hours rose 0.2%, which along with the modest 8K rise in Manufacturing Payrolls should see result in a small gain for Industrial Production. The lack of any obvious weakness in this component also tends to lean against over-interpreting the payrolls weakness.
d) Market reaction - The USD was the primary victim of the report, as Euro$ futures and Treasuries continued their sharp gains for the week, with the market now discounting a 32% chance of a JUNE Fed rate cut, and pretty much 'slam dunk' on July with a 76% probability, and a total of 3 cuts priced in by December. It has to be added that if that amount of easing was delivered by the Fed, then one would have to use the word 'panic'. USD Index (DXY) is now toying with key trendline support at 96.50. There remains a good deal of cognitive dissonance between the doom and gloom being signalled by the market rates trajectory, and equity indices continuing to sustain their sharp gains on the week, with the VIX languishing towards its recent lows (sub 16.0%). But then again this remains an era of major financial repression, and there is still many trillions of central bank QE floating around the system looking for a more fruitful (in terms of yield/return) than the abject 1.84% on US 2yr and 2.06% on US 10 yr Treasuries. There is perhaps some vulnerability in the rates space to some pre-weekend profit-taking, given the extent of the falls in rates and yields this week.
Trump's decision on the Mexico tariffs is obviously the next major hurdle, with mixed messages coming from the US administration, on the one hand lauding Mexican proposals on immigration, while emphasizing that there is still work to do, and that the plan remains to implement the tariffs on Monday.
Also worth noting north of the border, another much stronger than expected set of Canadian labour data, with the Unemployment Rate falling to a 43-year low of 5.4%, Employment +27.7K (all full-time) - if oil prices can stabilize or even rally, the negative sentiment on the C$ may start to ebb in a more sustained way
Week Ahead Video preview:
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
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Mornin folks ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ ☕ 
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Torrential rain and most of Europe closed today
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Dow into the open
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Dax into the open
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Dax
a general look
a general look
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in support....will it hold.?
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Week Ahead: Data & Events - Brief Preview & Highlights - 10 to 14 June 2019 - ADM ISI
The Week Ahead - Preview: 10 to 14 June 2019
- A busy week awaits in terms of major economic data from the US, China, Japan and the UK, though the weekend decision that the US will not impose trade tariffs following Mexico's commitments to tighten up its policing of migrant flows, the inconclusive meeting between PBOC's Yi Gang and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central bank summit in Japan will set the mood music for markets. In data terms, the US will focus on CPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, China has monetary aggregates, CPI and Trade, Japan looks to revised Q1 GDP (as expected) and Machinery Orders, while the UK sees monthly GDP accompany gamut of business activity indicators (Trade, Production, Index of Services) along with labour data. Outside of the myriad of trade tensions, the political calendar sees the start of the Conservative Party leadership contest, and the Italian government tensions and budget woes will continue to buffet Italian asset prices, with a Euro Group meeting set to discuss a formal deficit infringement procedure. Oil markets will be looking to the latest OPEC Oil Market Report, as OPEC and Russia appear to be inching towards agreeing an extension of the production, though as a number of Russian officials have noted, the two sides appear to have rather different views on an appropriate or desirable level for oil prices. On the central bank front, the Fed goes into purdah ahead of its June 18/19 FOMC meeting, though there will be numerous ECB, BoE and other speakers, while Switzerland's SNB is unsurprisingly seen holding policy, and indicating that it will fight any unwanted CHF strength by all means necessary, while doubtless echoing other central banks in highlighting downside risks to the economic outlook.
* U.S. data
- Following on from the poor US Payrolls data, it will be the run of CPI and other inflation data along with Retail Sales which dominate the economic narrative. A modest dip in energy and food prices are expected to drag modestly on headline CPI and PPI, with the former seen up 0.1% m/m to edge the y/y rate down to 1.9%, while core CPI is seen up by the very usual 0.2% for an unchanged 2.1%, in other words around target, with PPI seen indicating little in the way of pipeline pressures at 2.0% y/y headline and 2.3% core - per se not offering the Fed any reason for concern in either direction. April's Retail Sales proved to be a disappointing start for Q2, but May is expected to see a solid 0.7% m/m headline rebound, led by those strong Auto Sales, though core measures are expected to see a solid 0.4% m/m gain, despite a price led drag from gasoline sales. The Manufacturing Payrolls and Average Hours components of the labour data fit well with expectations of a modest 0.2% m/m rebound in industrial Production, after a sharper than expected 0.5% m/m setback in April. JOLTs Job Openings, Business Inventories and preliminary Michigan Confidence are also due. Given the current market mindset, and eminently contingent on political developments, there will continue to be greater sensitivity to downside misses than upside surprises.
* more in today's Good Morning
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
| Inbox | x |
| 06:26 (1 hour ago) |
|
The Week Ahead - Preview: 10 to 14 June 2019
- A busy week awaits in terms of major economic data from the US, China, Japan and the UK, though the weekend decision that the US will not impose trade tariffs following Mexico's commitments to tighten up its policing of migrant flows, the inconclusive meeting between PBOC's Yi Gang and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central bank summit in Japan will set the mood music for markets. In data terms, the US will focus on CPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, China has monetary aggregates, CPI and Trade, Japan looks to revised Q1 GDP (as expected) and Machinery Orders, while the UK sees monthly GDP accompany gamut of business activity indicators (Trade, Production, Index of Services) along with labour data. Outside of the myriad of trade tensions, the political calendar sees the start of the Conservative Party leadership contest, and the Italian government tensions and budget woes will continue to buffet Italian asset prices, with a Euro Group meeting set to discuss a formal deficit infringement procedure. Oil markets will be looking to the latest OPEC Oil Market Report, as OPEC and Russia appear to be inching towards agreeing an extension of the production, though as a number of Russian officials have noted, the two sides appear to have rather different views on an appropriate or desirable level for oil prices. On the central bank front, the Fed goes into purdah ahead of its June 18/19 FOMC meeting, though there will be numerous ECB, BoE and other speakers, while Switzerland's SNB is unsurprisingly seen holding policy, and indicating that it will fight any unwanted CHF strength by all means necessary, while doubtless echoing other central banks in highlighting downside risks to the economic outlook.
* U.S. data
- Following on from the poor US Payrolls data, it will be the run of CPI and other inflation data along with Retail Sales which dominate the economic narrative. A modest dip in energy and food prices are expected to drag modestly on headline CPI and PPI, with the former seen up 0.1% m/m to edge the y/y rate down to 1.9%, while core CPI is seen up by the very usual 0.2% for an unchanged 2.1%, in other words around target, with PPI seen indicating little in the way of pipeline pressures at 2.0% y/y headline and 2.3% core - per se not offering the Fed any reason for concern in either direction. April's Retail Sales proved to be a disappointing start for Q2, but May is expected to see a solid 0.7% m/m headline rebound, led by those strong Auto Sales, though core measures are expected to see a solid 0.4% m/m gain, despite a price led drag from gasoline sales. The Manufacturing Payrolls and Average Hours components of the labour data fit well with expectations of a modest 0.2% m/m rebound in industrial Production, after a sharper than expected 0.5% m/m setback in April. JOLTs Job Openings, Business Inventories and preliminary Michigan Confidence are also due. Given the current market mindset, and eminently contingent on political developments, there will continue to be greater sensitivity to downside misses than upside surprises.
* more in today's Good Morning
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
A Subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company
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