Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

A quick look at the Dow

 

[Dentalfloss]

A quick look at the Dax

 

[Dentalfloss]

Question..
Are those trendlines right ...??

 

[Dentalfloss]

Is any trendline right whan the data can be random..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

you stand a better chance if you get a p/f signal as a trendline break this is a bar chart..p/f signal can be seen

 

[Dentalfloss]

Cable in support

 

[Dentalfloss]

buyers comin in ....as we said

 

[Dentalfloss]

DAX last 24 hours

 

[Dentalfloss]

life is alot easier when you know the trend

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax in suppport....will it hold..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 10 May 2019 - ADM ISI

Ostwald, Marc

08:50 (36 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Digesting poor Japan Wages, but better Household Spending, very dovish
RBA SOMP forecasts, better than expected German Exports, and weak
French Industrial Production; awaiting deluge of UK data including GDP,
US CPI and Canada labour data, along with more Fed speak; BUT US/China
trade talks probably the 'only show' in town

- Australia: RBA forecast cuts effectively imply rate cut basked in the
cake for June

- UK: Q1 GDP 'strength' seen confirmed, but March data set to confirm
sharp loss of momentum going into Q2

- US CPI: energy to pace headline gain, and edge y/y back up above Fed
target, confirming recent dip as transitory

- Canada Unemployment: modest rebound in Employment expected after surprise
March dip; details better than headline measures suggest, wages seen
sustaining rebound

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

"Impressively large and packed with top level data" covers today's economic data schedule, but whatever insights and surprises that this may offer could quite easily be put to the sword of the Us/China trade negotiations news flow at least in terms of market impact. There are the overnight China Q2 Current Account, Japan Household Spending (better than expected at 2.1% y/y) and Labour Cash Earnings (dreadful at -1.9% y/y nominal and -2.5% y/y in real terms), German Trade (Exports posting a welcome +1.5% against forecast of -0.4%), French Industrial Production (worse than expected at -0.9% m/m, with February revised down to just 0.1% from 0.4%) and Norway CPI (core slighyly above forecasts at 2.6% y/y) to digest from the overnight run. Ahead lie a raft of UK activity data including GDP, Index of Services, Industrial Production and Trade, with US CPI and Treasury Budget, Canada's labour data and Brazil's IPCA IBGE inflation. In central bank terms there are the BoJ's 'summary of opinions' for its April policy meeting and the RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) to digest, and there will again be a busy run of ECB and Fed speakers. The RBA's SOMP revised down 2019 GDP forecast very sharply to 1.75% y/y from 2.5%, and Trimmed Mean (core) CPI to 1.5% from 1.75% (N.B. RBA target is 2.0-3.0%), which per se make a very strong case for a rate cut, and thus imply that the RBA delayed the move to June, primarily because of the election.

** U.K. - March/Q1 GDP, Industrial Production & Trade Balance **
- The UK economy surprised many in Q1, given all the Brexit related uncertainty (though in part driven by stockpiling), and while Q1 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q, it is the forecast flat m/m reading for March monthly GDP which should offer a clear signal that the ostensible strength was transitory, and may well have 'borrowed' from Q2, i.e. the next quarter(s) may see a ‘payback’ drag. Industrial Production is nevertheless still seen up 0.1% m/m following February's 0.6%, with Manufacturing seen flat m/m vs. February 0.9%. The very volatile Construction Output is projected to drop 0.9% m/m after strong/solid gains in the prior two months. Trade data have been poor in terms of a widening deficit, and only a modest narrowing to £-13.75 Bln is seen, with the Non-EU balance set to continue to exercise a sizeable drag with a £-5.4 Bln deficit (Feb £-5.84 Bln), and expected to be seen very clearly in terms of a reasonable 1.7% q/q growth in Exports, offset by a 4.5% q/q jump in Imports (stockpiling may well be a factor here too). The Index of Services is seen steady in m/m and q/q terms at 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. But as previously noted, all of this may prove to be rather moot, given the array of uncertainties.

** U.S.A. - April CPI **
- Following on from the PPI data where the headline and ex-Food & Energy measures missed forecasts, but only due to a fall (-0.5% m/m) in the ever volatile Trade Services component, resulting in the ex-Food, Energy & Trade component beating forecasts of 0.2% m/m with a jump of 0.4% m/m. Be that as it may. today's more sensitive CPI is set to get a further boost from energy prices, with the consensus looking for a 0.4% m/m rise to push the y/y rate back up to 2.1% from 1.9%, while core CPI is seen up a very standard 0.2% m/m to leave the y/y rate unchanged at 2.1%. Such an outturn would fit with the dip in inflation over the past 6 to 9 months being 'transitory', as Fed chair Powell described it at last week's press conference, and per se leaning against markets discounting a rate cut by the end of 2019, and therefore adding to the risk of a rather sharper (bearish) re-pricing of the US rate trajectory at some stage, that is of course unless the wheels fall off in the US/China trade negotiations.

** Canada - April Unemployment Rate / Wages **
- Recent labour reports have been mixed, and April's Unemployment Rate is seen steady at 5.8% for a fourth consecutive month, with Employment expected to rebound 11K after contracting 7K in March, the latter coming after two outsized gains in January (66.8K) and February (55.9K). Indeed a closer look at the details of recent reports highlights why the BoC has been quite sanguine about the economic outlook, outside of weakness in Investment and trade tensions, given that wages have rebounded from the soft end Q4 pace of 1.5% y/y to 2.3% in March, where they are expected to have held in April. This has been accompanied by continued (modest) growth in hours worked (last 0.9% y/y) and an uptick in the Participation Rate to 65.7% from December's 65.4%. While the BoC signalled a more neutral outlook on official rates at its most recent meeting, it will be watching incoming labour data closely for any signs of a tightening labour market.

 

[Dentalfloss]

bounce off our support

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dax
last 12 hours

 

[Dentalfloss]

Naz 100
if that supp area holds.....could be a decent recoil

 

[Dentalfloss]

 

[Dentalfloss]

whack

 

[Dentalfloss]

Dow in support
will it hold..??

 

[Dentalfloss]

Mornin folks

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐☕☕☕☕💋💋🆒🆒

 

[Dentalfloss]

Late start for me
Pensioners..... they can take the stress