Trading with point and figure

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you cannot believe anything....lol
we are all fakers

 

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A quick look at Dax

 

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goin either way

 

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oil
our supp area workin well....now in rez

 

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Dow into the open

 

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SPX
our rez worked a treat yesterday

 

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poss top forming

 

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test of trend..??

 

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looks reasonably bullish

 

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Naz 100 has a trend break...could get interesting

 

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poss top forming

 

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close up

 

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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 17 April 2019 - ADM ISI

Ostwald, Marc

09:17 (4 minutes ago)

to Marc

- Very busy day for data, events and earnings; digesting run of China
activity data, and Japan/Singapore Trade, awaiting UK inflation data,
US & Canada Trade, Fed Beige Book, ECB & Fed Speakers, more Corporate
earnings

- China: data indubitably better than expected, but closer inspection of
details advises need for some circumspection in terms of outlook

- UK CPI/PPI: outside of upward push from energy, few signs of anything
other than very modest price pressures

- US Trade Balance: set to widen on month, but still suggest positive
contribution from net exports to Q1 GDP

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************


Today marks the high water mark in terms of the schedule of key data and events for markets as they wind down ahead of the Easter break. There are the run of clearly better than expected China Q1 GDP and monthly activity data, but downbeat trade data from Japan and above all Singapore, even if Lunar New Year base effects clearly had an impact on the latter. Ahead lie the full run of UK inflation indicators, US and Canadian Trade, the Fed's Beige Book and a likely key note speech from NY Fed's Logan on the Fed's balance sheet management, along with other Fed and ECB speakers. Another busy day for US corporate earnings features amongst others: Abbot Labs, Alcoa, BoNy Mellon, , Kinder Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Pepsico.

** China - Q1 GDP, March Retail Sakes, Industrial Production & FAI **
- While today's run of data were indisputably better than expected, there is a strong case of adding the observation: 'be careful what you wish for', from a number of aspects. But in the first instance, it is fair observe that the array of stimulus measures which have been implemented since the middle of 2018 are bearing fruit, even if it has to be observed that lunar new year timing effects advise caution, and secondly that with the economy turning a corner, the Chinese authorities (be that govt or PBOC) may now ease back on any further stimulus measures, particularly as the underlying credit/debt dynamics of the economy remain a considerable threat. It is notable that the 'beats' relative to forecasts on Q1 GDP and FAI were modest, if not marginal, in no small part as these are quarterly data which iron out much of the LNY impact on monthly data, or in the case of Industrial Production the additional boost from the end of winter output curbs related to the environment. The jump in Construction Starts to 18.1% y/y does however underline that the combination of easier credit conditions and some relaxation of regulatory curbs on residential construction (in second tier sized cities) is getting traction. But the litmus test in terms of how much traction the economy has got from the stimulus will be in Q2, and FAI will be the measure to keep the closest eye on.

** U.K. - March CPI, RPI, PPI **
CPI is projected to rise 0.2% m/m, which would edge headline y/y up to target at 2.0% and core to 1.9%, with food and petrol likely to be the main drivers, and the key short-term question being how much the rise in the household energy price cap boosts CPI in Q2, but in all likelihood CPI looks likely to be around target for most of 2019, barring some very sharp FX or oil price moves. PPI is expected to see further upward pressure on Input prices from enegry prices, but otherwise signal that pipeline pressures remain well contained.

** U.S.A. - Feb Trade Balance / Beige Book **
- Aside from inventories, the other key swing element for Q1 GDP will be Net Exports, with today's February Trade Balance seen widening to $-53.5 Bln from a much a better than expected $-51.1 Bln in January, which would suggest a fairly robust contribution (0.5-0.7 ppt?) to GDP. It should be add that the rise in oil prices is likely to widen the deficit again going forward. As previously noted, the pointers on the US economy since mid-March have suggested that recession talk has been very much overdone, even if the economy is clearly running at a slower pace than mid-2018, though somewhat above its potential rate, which is likely to be the message from today's Beige Book. The specific points of interest will be on consumer spending, where incoming data and anecdotal evidence has been mixed, even if this report should underline that labour demand remains robust, and that wage pressures, while not overwhelming are nevertheless on the rise. The other focal points will be manufacturing, where data and surveys suggest growth in activity has been mixed, and Agriculture where the mid-west floods only add to the major headwinds from China/US trade tensions.

 

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messy

 

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Mornin folks ☕☕☕⭐⭐💋💋

 

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And a great Easter too

 

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SPX into the open

 

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DAX into the open

 

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areas to watch

 

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Dow
areas to watch