Trading with point and figure

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lets see what happens

 

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cable in support....will it hold..??

 

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oil on a poss fake

 

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Naz

 

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FTSE updated

 

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Dow updated

 

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got that wrong

 

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Dopw in support

 

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Dow since last Thursday

 

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finally

 

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lol

 

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some supp came in

 

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Boeing
still got potential for $100 more dump

 

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The close plot has a better feel
counting column has a blue mark
downside count is active @$310 area

 

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270 target seems better

 

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Mornin folks

 

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Dax into the open

45 deg trendline from that reaction point/yellow and a pivot chucked in

 

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Dow
yazza needs to get into that channel

 

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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 9 April 2019 - ADM ISI


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Ostwald, Marc
08:43 (6 minutes ago)



to Marc






- Digesting UK BRC Sales, Oz Housing Finance, Norway monthly GDP; awaiting
US NFIB & JOLTS Job Openings, IMF forecast update, Brexit meetings and
negotiations, Fed speak from Clarida; pondering Russia and Saudi comments
on production cut deal outlook, and US proposals for tariffs on EU; Aramco
bond deal accompanies bond auctions in Austria, Germany, UK and USA

- US/EU: volume of goods affected by tariffs modest, but bodes poorly
in terms of direction of travel (Boeing woes perhaps a factor?)

- Brexit: situation still very fluid, EU mood clearly against Hard Brexit,
but still no consensus on length of extension offer; conditions key

- US NFIB/JOLTS: some upside risks on expected marginal gain for NFIB;
Job Openings seen a tad lower, but close to all-time high

- Charts: RBOB Gasoline, WTI vs RBOB Gasoline

- Morning Call audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-9-april-2019/

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The Brexit drama continues with PM May meeting Chancellor Merkel and President Macron ahead of the 'emergency' EU council summit tomorrow, and ongoing rumblings from within the Tory party about unseating her, even though party leadership rules make this difficult after last year's challenge failed. Cross party negotiations to find a compromise do not appear to be yielding much, though the passage of the Cooper-Letwin Bill into law behoves both major parties to keep talking, even if it does not actually preclude a 'no deal' Brexit. Statistically the schedule is again modest, with very weak BRC Retail Sales, much better than expected Australian Housing Finance and Norway's monthly GDP (Mainland falling 0.3% m/m against a forecast of +0.1%) to absorb ahead of the US NFIB survey and JOLTS Jobs Openings, while Mexico has CPI. The latest IMF World Economic Outlook update will as ever be very 'rear view mirror', though any further relatively sharp cuts to growth forecasts will garner some reaction. Today also sees the kick-off for a busy week of auctions in the US and Eurozone, with Austria selling 4 & 10-yr, German selling a 2030 I-L Bund, and the US offering 3-yr, though all eyes will be on the Aramco dollar bond issuance, where books are now said to be in excess of $85 Bln, with spreads vs USTs likely to be below those on equivalent sovereign issuance. Central bank speakers include Fed' Clarida, Norges Bank's Nicolaisen and Fed's Clarida. The US February NFIB Small Business Optimism broke a run of successive falls from its all-time high of 108.8 in August, and is expected to edge up again to 102.0 from 101.7, premised on stronger hiring intentions (already published), though if the ISM Manufacturing survey is any guide (Orders, Employment and Prices Paid all higher), then a modestly stronger rebound is more than possible. The JOLTS Job Openings data are for February, but are expected to remain very close to November's all-high of 7.626 Mln at 7.55 Mln, marginally lower than January's 7.581 Mln, but clearly out of tune with the weak February Payrolls print.

However it is the political, trade and oil market narratives that seem likely to dominate. On Brexit, all the indications suggest that the EU Council is in no mood to force a hard Brexit, whatever the chatter around a French veto might suggest, however it is equally clear that in the case of a long extension (9 & 12 month are both being mooted), the council will retain the right to end the extension unilaterally, if it judges that the UK is trying to disrupt the EU. Of rather greater significance in terms of the global economic outlook is the escalation of tensions between the US and EU with the announcement of tariffs on what is a relatively modest $11 Bln of goods in protest at Airbus subsidies, the timing of which could perhaps be attributed to Boeing's woes; but it still sends the wrong signal in terms of 'direction of travel' on bilateral US/EU trade relations. Today also sees the annual EU/China summit, at which trade and IPR will obviously be major discussion points, though it appears unlikely that anything of any major significance will emerge. Last but certainly not least, Russia's energy minister Dimitriev (a key architect in the OPEC+ deal) echoed Saudi's Al Falih in suggesting that the OPEC JMMC meeting in May could decide to end, or at least ease production cuts, which should serve to cap the oil price rise in the short-term, notwithstanding the escalation of the conflict in Libya, and even if product prices may well diverge, given rising crude quality issues and disruptions to ethanol production due to the US mid-west floods.

 

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Dow