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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 19 March 2019 - ADM ISI
Inbox
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Ostwald, Marc
08:34 (19 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Fed and Brexit vigils set to dominate on another quiet day for scheduled
data and events: Oz House Prices, UK labour data, German ZEW survey, US
Factory Orders accompany ECB and Riksbank speak
- UK labour data seen retaining robust profile in contrast to some survey
indications of softer labour demand; totally subordinate to hyper-fluid
Brexit situation
- Germany ZEW: data and BBK report impart downside risk to current situation
index, firmer Dax suggests upside risk on expectations
- ADM ISI Morning Call audio file:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-tuesday-19-march-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's data and events schedule is once again short on genuine highlights to distract from the overarching themes of Brexit and US/China Trade. There are March RBA minutes and Q4 House Prices (marginally weaker than expected) to digest from Australia, while ahead lie UK labour data, the German ZEW survey and the generally market insensitive US Factory Orders (for January). Central bank speak has another speech from Praet, with rather more interest in what Canada's Finance Minister Morneau has to offer in his pre-election, above all given expectations of some "sweeteners" in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin 'scandal'. Germany's ZEW survey is expected to improve marginally on Expectations (thanks to the uptick in the Dax), while the Current Situation may drop more than the projected 13 vs. 15, given that run of downbeat incoming data and forecasts, and a rather belated display of 'towel throwing' in yesterday's Bundesbank monthly report which finally gave up on the 'recent data have not been good, but the weakness will be transitory'. In its place was an acknowledgement that the headwinds for manufacturing remain considerable, though continued strength in construction and personal consumption should provide a substantial offset, and see an uptick in Q1 GDP.
** U.K. - Jan/Feb labour data / Brexit **
_ For all the gloomy chatter about companies holding back on hiring plans due to Brexit uncertainties, official labour statistics continue to suggest solid labour demand, Nov-Jan Employment expected to ease modestly to a solid 120K from Q4's +167K, while headline Average Weekly Earnings are projected to slip to 3.2% from 3.4% y/y, but hold at 3.4% y/y ex-Bonus. However this will be all rather moot as the Brexit saga takes yet another twist and turn via way of the speaker of Parliament's ruling on a 3rd meaningful vote being inadmissible in this parliamentary session. But with no UK constitution, then perhaps this parliamentary session can simply be terminated, and a new one started, with a so-called "prorogue" precedent for similar action having been set back in 1948, according to parliamentary historians (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_Acts_1911_and_1949 ). All of which circumvents the point that this just sustains the view that the UK remains mired in a deep constitutional crisis, and the primary working assumption in terms of outcomes is anything could happen given that the parliamentary situation remains hyper-fluid, given the highly perfidious attitude of many of the key parliamentary actors.
Inbox
x
Ostwald, Marc
08:34 (19 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Fed and Brexit vigils set to dominate on another quiet day for scheduled
data and events: Oz House Prices, UK labour data, German ZEW survey, US
Factory Orders accompany ECB and Riksbank speak
- UK labour data seen retaining robust profile in contrast to some survey
indications of softer labour demand; totally subordinate to hyper-fluid
Brexit situation
- Germany ZEW: data and BBK report impart downside risk to current situation
index, firmer Dax suggests upside risk on expectations
- ADM ISI Morning Call audio file:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-tuesday-19-march-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The day's data and events schedule is once again short on genuine highlights to distract from the overarching themes of Brexit and US/China Trade. There are March RBA minutes and Q4 House Prices (marginally weaker than expected) to digest from Australia, while ahead lie UK labour data, the German ZEW survey and the generally market insensitive US Factory Orders (for January). Central bank speak has another speech from Praet, with rather more interest in what Canada's Finance Minister Morneau has to offer in his pre-election, above all given expectations of some "sweeteners" in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin 'scandal'. Germany's ZEW survey is expected to improve marginally on Expectations (thanks to the uptick in the Dax), while the Current Situation may drop more than the projected 13 vs. 15, given that run of downbeat incoming data and forecasts, and a rather belated display of 'towel throwing' in yesterday's Bundesbank monthly report which finally gave up on the 'recent data have not been good, but the weakness will be transitory'. In its place was an acknowledgement that the headwinds for manufacturing remain considerable, though continued strength in construction and personal consumption should provide a substantial offset, and see an uptick in Q1 GDP.
** U.K. - Jan/Feb labour data / Brexit **
_ For all the gloomy chatter about companies holding back on hiring plans due to Brexit uncertainties, official labour statistics continue to suggest solid labour demand, Nov-Jan Employment expected to ease modestly to a solid 120K from Q4's +167K, while headline Average Weekly Earnings are projected to slip to 3.2% from 3.4% y/y, but hold at 3.4% y/y ex-Bonus. However this will be all rather moot as the Brexit saga takes yet another twist and turn via way of the speaker of Parliament's ruling on a 3rd meaningful vote being inadmissible in this parliamentary session. But with no UK constitution, then perhaps this parliamentary session can simply be terminated, and a new one started, with a so-called "prorogue" precedent for similar action having been set back in 1948, according to parliamentary historians (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_Acts_1911_and_1949 ). All of which circumvents the point that this just sustains the view that the UK remains mired in a deep constitutional crisis, and the primary working assumption in terms of outcomes is anything could happen given that the parliamentary situation remains hyper-fluid, given the highly perfidious attitude of many of the key parliamentary actors.
