Trading with point and figure

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could pop

 

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scalps

 

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trap....we saw ya...cant fool us

 

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Mornin folks

 

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oversold ???

 

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DAX into the open

 

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11400 supp area...there now

 

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close up

 

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DAX

 

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pivot area is quite stong
poss bear traps below
11450 is prev supp/poss rez
then 11488-11500 area

 

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care with sells....a wide supp area

 

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and bounce

 

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gettin a tad nasty

 

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a tad oversold

 

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ourv11400 worked a treat

 

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SPX into the open

 

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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 28 February 2019 - ADM ISI


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Ostwald, Marc
08:39 (13 minutes ago)



to Marc






PLEASE NOTE: there will not be any updates Friday 1 March or Monday 4 March
====================================================

- Deluge of data and Fed speakers to end the month; digesting softer China
PMIs, better than expected Oz CapEx, worse than expected Japan Production
and Retail Sales; awaiting Eurozone national CPI readings, Q4 GDP in USA,
Sweden, India, Brazil & Colombia; Clarida tops run of 5 Fed speakers,
plenty of corporate earnings

- China PMIs: modest miss, exports the key drag on manufacturing, some signs
of a pick-up in domestic demand

- Eurozone CPI: France downside miss, Spain broadly in line, Germany expected
to pick up, but tomorrow's pan Eurozone CPI probably unchanged in y/y terms,
with core CPI getting little or no upside traction

- US Q4 GDP: Business & Housing Investment likely weak, Personal Consumption
seen solid though slower than Q3, Trade likely a drag, Inventories the
wild card

- India Q4 GDP: seen slowing in y/y terms vs. Q3, but set to be flattered
by demonetization in Q4 2017

- Brazil Q4 GDP: likely to revert to trend of weak growth after Q2 & Q3
distortions, underlining challenges facing Bolsonaro

- Morning call audio preview:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-28-february-2019/

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Today's schedule busting at the seams with major data as February draws to a close, with the as expected overnight no change decision from the Bank of Korea to be digested ahead of no less than 5 Fed speakers - Bostic, Clarida, Harker, Mester & Kaplan. on the statistical front there are China NBS PMIs (slightly below forecast with weak exports offset by signs of pick-up in domestic demand), Japanese Industrial Production & Retail Sales (both weaker than expected), Australian Q4 CapEx (a welcome upside surprise after dismal Construction output), UK GfK Consumer Confidence, Danish, Finnish and Swiss Q4 GDP to digest, while ahead lie provisional CPI data from Germany, France, Spain & Italy, a rash of Q4 GDP data from the US, Sweden, India, Brazil and Colombia, with the US also looking to weekly jobless claims and the Chicago PMI. Corporate earnings are also plentiful with Anheuser-Busch, BAT, Rentokil, Rolls-Royce and RSA Insurance among the likely headliners in Europe, while across the pond there are reports from Dell, Edison, Gap, JC Penney, PG&E and Toronto-Dominion Bank amongst others.

** Eurozone - Feb prov. national CPI / HICP **
- As is seasonally typical, February CPI readings are expected to post a rise on the month as January sales discounting is unwound, though the picture in y/y terms is likely to be divergent, with Spain HICP forecast at an unchanged 1.0%, France to rise to 1.7% from 1.4%, Italy to rebound to 1.2% from 0.9%, while Germany is projected to be unchanged at 1.7%. All of which is expected to result in tomorrow's Eurozone CPI edge up to 1.5% y/y headline, but remain very subdued at 1.1% y/y on the core measure, the latter again suggesting a very distinct lack of upward momentum. ECB speakers remain rather reticent to say anything that would fundamentally undermine the rationale for ending QE last December, or push back on the still rather unspecific rate guidance of 'not before H2 2019', but any undershoot today will certainly have markets pushing back even harder, as well as heightening expectations for a new round of TLTROs in the not too distant future.

** U.S.A. et al. - Q4 'initial' GDP **
- Even if today's US Q4 GDP preliminary reading is now rather historical (perhaps all the more so given the Consumer Confidence surge / rebound on Tuesday), it will still be the statistical item of the day, even if the array of other Q4 GDP readings will in conjunction with the US data offer a rather better "fix" on where the global economy stood in Q4. Be that as it may, what appear to be a chasm between the consensus (2.3% SAAR) and Atlanta Fed GDP now (1.8%) has narrowed substantially since last week (when it was 2.5%/1.5%). Yesterday's very poor Goods Trade data (admittedly nominal rather than 'real' data) suggest downside risks relative to consensus, even if the larger than expected pick-up in Retail/Wholesale Inventories offered a small offset. Housing Investment looks likely to be a drag, and Business Investment will likely rebound from a weak Q3 though only modestly, while the slide in Business Inventories seems likely to outweigh that aforementioned rise in Wholesale Inventories. The question then is how much the very quirky looking slide in Dec Retail Sales damages the solid Q4 Personal Consumption profile in the first 2 months of the quarter with a 3.0% SAAR rise expected, a relatively most dip compared to Q3's 3.5%. India's Q4 GDP will be the other key reading, and will be somewhat difficult to decipher, given flattering base effects from last year's demonetization 'shock'. Thus the projected dip to 6.7% y/y from 7.1% in Q3 may look quite modest, even if in the 'wrong direction', but would in fact signal a rather sharp loss of momentum than the headlines would suggest, in no small part predicated by tight credit conditions and the rise in energy prices. Be that as it may, the estimate for FY 2018/19 is still expected to be edge up to 7.2%, though that will depend on a relatively sharp pick-up in Q1 2019 GDP. As for Brazil Q4 GDP, a relatively sharp drop in q/q terms to 0.2% from Q3's 0.8% (heavily flattered by the rebound from the truckers strike in Q2) would leave the y/y rate little changed at 1.4% from Q3's 1.3%. It would also serve as a strong reminder that the challenges that Bolsonaro faces in boosting the economy remain enormous, and all the larger given the worse than expected rise in the Jan Unemployment Rate to 12.0% (from Dec 11.6%) reported yesterday.

 

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SPX a break of trend yesterday@3pm /UK time its now in a bear trap