Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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whack
Dentalfloss
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bulls got whacked
Dentalfloss
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our 11382 supp area worked a treat today
Dentalfloss
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finally'''some more downside
Dentalfloss
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area marked this morning
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks 
Dentalfloss
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Dax...tricky
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trendline workin well
Dentalfloss
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DAX
bulls need to keep it above that downtrend line
bulls need to keep it above that downtrend line
Dentalfloss
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OIL...has it topped..??
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 22 February 2019 - ADM ISI
Inbox
x
Ostwald, Marc
08:24 (11 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Digesting China Property Prices, Japan CPI and German Q4 GDP details,
awaiting German Ifo, UK CBI Distributive Trades, Canada Retail Sales &
Mexico mid-month CPI; deluge of Fed speakers likely dominant influence,
ECB and Riksbank speak also on tap
- Germany Ifo: further dip expected in headline and Current conditions,
Expectations seen troughing at 7-yr low; Q4 GDP inventory slide offers
some hope of recovery in Q1
- Canada Retail Sales, further weakness expected, though partly predicated
by gasoline price fall, but personal consumption still clearly slower
- Fed speak: proposals on ending QT in focus, but may well emphasize
that patient pause more likely to end with rate hike than cut; role of
financial conditions also set to see some discussion
- Morning Call audio file:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-22-february-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A relatively busy day to end the week in data terms, but it will be the deluge of Fed speakers that are likely to prove to be the primary influence, outside of the overarching focus on US/China Trade negotiations and the Brexit mess. Statistically, there are Japan' national CPI, Chinese Property Prices and the detailed German Q4 GDP report (comforting in so far as Inventories deducted a whopping 0.6 ppts from Q4, and should see a rebound in Q1, but anomalous given that Q4 Construction was 1.3% q/q, totally out of line with the sector sub-index in Industrial Production, which fell in each month) to digest ahead of the German Ifo and DBI Distributive Trade surveys, while the afternoon brings Canadian Retail Sales and Mexican mid-month CPI. There are a number of Riksbank and ECB speakers, but all eyes will be on the two major Fed conferences, which amongst other have vice chair Clarida, NY Fed's Williams and Quarles among the speakers, with the Chicago Booth Forum concluding with a panel discussion on the Fed's balance sheet. Corporate earnings are rather sparse, while Italy offers CTZs (zeros) and inflation-linked BTPs via auction. Next week brings two days of testimony from Powell, the combined advance / provisional Q4 GDP report, along with Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, and catch up on Personal Income/PCE and Factory Goods Orders, along with the ISM that is accompanied by Manufacturing PMIs around the globe, Eurozone CPI and the usual end of month rush of statistics, including Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production and Retail Sales in Japan. It will also be a bumper week for US Treasury supply, with a total of $311 Bln in Bills & Coupons (assuming unchanged 4 & 8 week bill sale size) , which be the second highest weekly total on record ($325 Bln being the all-time high). Canada' Retail Sales are likely to underline that ex-Autos spending remains weak (f'cast -0.3% m/m following November's -0.6%), though this does in part reflect the drop in gasoline prices (remembering that this is December data), but will is likely to be a key element in expected drop in Q4 GDP to 1.5% SAAR from 2.0%.
** Germany - February Ifo Business Climate **
- Yesterday's PMIs continue to paint a divergent picture of chill winds for Manufacturing from a slide in export demand, while Services continue to expand a very healthy cllp thanks to solid domestic demand, bolstered by low unemployment and solid real wage growth. Today's Ifo survey should tell a similar story with the Current assessment seen dipping a little further to a still reasonably healthy 103.9 from 104.3, with expectations seen basing out at 94.3 (vs. January's 7-yr low of 94.2). Of particular note in the detail will be Construction sector readings, in so far as incoming data have suggested a rather abrupt stall in Q4, after a protracted period of strength.
** U.S.A. - Fed speak **
- Perhaps the key point with the run of Fed speakers is the contextual view on the balance sheet reduction (QT) programme, firstly the fact that the general tightening of financial conditions, above all the spike in volatility and the widening of credit spreads has seen a large unwind in Q1 2019, so how does the Fed view this? Secondly is a consensus forming of how the balance sheet reduction programme should be wound down, and what is the objective in terms of winding back bank reserve levels at the Fed, and on a more technical note how does the level of the Treasury Cash balance at the Fed play into this, given that this is a key factor in terms of overall levels of liquidity in US (and by extension other markets), and is it looking to alter the composition of its balance sheet, i.e. relative volumes of US Treasuries to MBS? Thirdly, there does appear to be a consensus that the Fed would not view an end of QT as an 'in principle' bar to resuming rate hikes, even if there are clearly differences in opinion as to whether the economic outlook will likely justify further tightening.
Inbox
x
Ostwald, Marc
08:24 (11 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Digesting China Property Prices, Japan CPI and German Q4 GDP details,
awaiting German Ifo, UK CBI Distributive Trades, Canada Retail Sales &
Mexico mid-month CPI; deluge of Fed speakers likely dominant influence,
ECB and Riksbank speak also on tap
- Germany Ifo: further dip expected in headline and Current conditions,
Expectations seen troughing at 7-yr low; Q4 GDP inventory slide offers
some hope of recovery in Q1
- Canada Retail Sales, further weakness expected, though partly predicated
by gasoline price fall, but personal consumption still clearly slower
- Fed speak: proposals on ending QT in focus, but may well emphasize
that patient pause more likely to end with rate hike than cut; role of
financial conditions also set to see some discussion
- Morning Call audio file:
https://www.mixcloud.com/MOstwaldADM/adm-isi-morning-call-22-february-2019/
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A relatively busy day to end the week in data terms, but it will be the deluge of Fed speakers that are likely to prove to be the primary influence, outside of the overarching focus on US/China Trade negotiations and the Brexit mess. Statistically, there are Japan' national CPI, Chinese Property Prices and the detailed German Q4 GDP report (comforting in so far as Inventories deducted a whopping 0.6 ppts from Q4, and should see a rebound in Q1, but anomalous given that Q4 Construction was 1.3% q/q, totally out of line with the sector sub-index in Industrial Production, which fell in each month) to digest ahead of the German Ifo and DBI Distributive Trade surveys, while the afternoon brings Canadian Retail Sales and Mexican mid-month CPI. There are a number of Riksbank and ECB speakers, but all eyes will be on the two major Fed conferences, which amongst other have vice chair Clarida, NY Fed's Williams and Quarles among the speakers, with the Chicago Booth Forum concluding with a panel discussion on the Fed's balance sheet. Corporate earnings are rather sparse, while Italy offers CTZs (zeros) and inflation-linked BTPs via auction. Next week brings two days of testimony from Powell, the combined advance / provisional Q4 GDP report, along with Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales, and catch up on Personal Income/PCE and Factory Goods Orders, along with the ISM that is accompanied by Manufacturing PMIs around the globe, Eurozone CPI and the usual end of month rush of statistics, including Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production and Retail Sales in Japan. It will also be a bumper week for US Treasury supply, with a total of $311 Bln in Bills & Coupons (assuming unchanged 4 & 8 week bill sale size) , which be the second highest weekly total on record ($325 Bln being the all-time high). Canada' Retail Sales are likely to underline that ex-Autos spending remains weak (f'cast -0.3% m/m following November's -0.6%), though this does in part reflect the drop in gasoline prices (remembering that this is December data), but will is likely to be a key element in expected drop in Q4 GDP to 1.5% SAAR from 2.0%.
** Germany - February Ifo Business Climate **
- Yesterday's PMIs continue to paint a divergent picture of chill winds for Manufacturing from a slide in export demand, while Services continue to expand a very healthy cllp thanks to solid domestic demand, bolstered by low unemployment and solid real wage growth. Today's Ifo survey should tell a similar story with the Current assessment seen dipping a little further to a still reasonably healthy 103.9 from 104.3, with expectations seen basing out at 94.3 (vs. January's 7-yr low of 94.2). Of particular note in the detail will be Construction sector readings, in so far as incoming data have suggested a rather abrupt stall in Q4, after a protracted period of strength.
** U.S.A. - Fed speak **
- Perhaps the key point with the run of Fed speakers is the contextual view on the balance sheet reduction (QT) programme, firstly the fact that the general tightening of financial conditions, above all the spike in volatility and the widening of credit spreads has seen a large unwind in Q1 2019, so how does the Fed view this? Secondly is a consensus forming of how the balance sheet reduction programme should be wound down, and what is the objective in terms of winding back bank reserve levels at the Fed, and on a more technical note how does the level of the Treasury Cash balance at the Fed play into this, given that this is a key factor in terms of overall levels of liquidity in US (and by extension other markets), and is it looking to alter the composition of its balance sheet, i.e. relative volumes of US Treasuries to MBS? Thirdly, there does appear to be a consensus that the Fed would not view an end of QT as an 'in principle' bar to resuming rate hikes, even if there are clearly differences in opinion as to whether the economic outlook will likely justify further tightening.
Dentalfloss
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wazaaaa.....
Dentalfloss
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whack
Dentalfloss
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stops very tight now
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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in our rez area
Dentalfloss
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Dow in rez
