Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Sir Canta
Dentalfloss
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your entry at 4798...too early
note chart just posted...retest of trendline
note chart just posted...retest of trendline
Dentalfloss
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trendline is only a rough guide
does not have to be that accurate
does not have to be that accurate
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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anyway...a good trade despite the early entry...hopefully i kept yu out when price was in 4780 area
Dentalfloss
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above 23700 a dog
we had to wait for the signal
we had to wait for the signal
C
cantagril
Indeed, but the pub was force majeure. Out at 4770 +28.
Dentalfloss
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early entry is at the top of the pattern..or we could have waited for test of trendline/as rez
Dentalfloss
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C
cantagril
Morning Dentist and all,
Expecting Cac to open up higher following the Dax. Looking to sell around 4830 maybe
Expecting Cac to open up higher following the Dax. Looking to sell around 4830 maybe
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Morning Sir Canta
Morning Sir Canta
Dentalfloss
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Ostwald, Marc
08:39 (48 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Busy schedule of data and events, though politics via way of Brexit
parliamentary debate and results of China/US trade talks may rule the
roost; Germany and US to auction 10-yr debt
- Digesting better than expected Japan Wages, sluggish German Trade,
collapse in Australia Building Approvals, French Consumer Confidence drop,
awaiting UK Q3 Labour Costs
- Fed speakers perhaps more important than now somewhat 'historic' FOMC
minutes, though discussion on economy risks and balance sheet of
specific interest
- Canada: no change expected from BoC, forecasts seen revised lower, some
risk that Poloz and Wilkins lean slightly against dovish market rate view
- Poland: NBP seen on hold today and for most of 2019, very low level of
inflation enables 'wait and stance' as utility prices set to boost CPI
- Tables: Fed and BoC rate probabilities by meeting
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
schedule of data and above all central banking events is a busy one, even if the key statistical events have largely been published. Topping the central bank schedule are the December FOMC minutes and probably more importantly a long line of Fed speakers, with policy meetings in Canada and Poland, a Q&A session with BoE governor Carney and the minutes of the Riksbank bank meeting that initiated what will inevitably be a very low incline rate hike cycle. On the political front the UK parliament has another attempt to debate PM May's Brexit 'deal', that will culminate with a vote on 15 January; there is a high level meeting of US, EU and Japan trade officials, as the noise around the Mueller Russia investigation gets that little bit noisier, above all following the unrelated charges against Russian lawyer Veselnitskaya (present at the 2016 Trump Tower meeting) yesterday on obstruction of justice in a money laundering case. Statistically there are the much better than expected Japan Wages data (above all the 1.6% y/y rise in Regular Pay), as expected Korea Unemployment, German Trade (confirming that Trade should be a net positive for Q4 GDP, but still signalling weakness in foreign and indeed domestic demand, and certainly insufficient to offset a likely sharp decline in business investment, even if personal consumption should be strong), along with Norwegian monthly GDP (soft, but looking like a mean reversion after October's 1.2% m/m surge) to digest ahead of UK Q3 Labour Costs. Government bond supply sees Germany and the US selling 10-yr paper, with the possibility of further syndicated sales of other Eurozone government debt. Oil markets will also be watching the latest EIA inventories data closely, as the seesaw in sentiment continues, as traders try and navigate the fog of how the balance between supply and demand will pan out in 2019. But all of this may be subordinate to whatever is announced in terms of the US/China Trade talks that were concluded today, with the fact that little has been leaked by either side about the talks probably being a positive signal, in so far as neither side appear to want to 'game' the other via leaks to the media, as has been the case all too often over the past year, even if there are likely to be still quite hefty differences on issues on IPR and technology copyrights & security.
** U.S.A. - December FOMC minutes **
- It is more than likely that the 3 Fed speakers - the hawkish Rosengren, hawkish leaning Bostic and the newly less super dovish Evans - will prove more significant than the FOMC minutes, which have been rendered rather historical by Powell's ostensible climb down last week from the ostensibly hawkish December press conference signals. But the minutes should at least shed some light on why Powell was less accommodating in December, above all what aspects of the economy, and indeed financial conditions imparted that hawkish lean, and what were identified as factors that might justify a pause. As much as the message from the press conference was that there were no plans to change the Fed's balance sheet reduction programme (QT), there will surely have been some discussion about it, above all the relative potential merits of pausing on rates, relative to perhaps easing up on the pace of QT. While there was probably some discussion about Trump's verbal interventions on Fed policy, it is quite possible that these may not feature in the minutes, beyond some platitudes about the Fed sticking to its operational independence regardless of such political pressures.
** Canada - BoC rate decision **
- It seems as though the idea of a further rate hike at this BoC meeting is now a very distant memory, with the weaker run of domestic data, and above all the sharp shift in market expectations for Fed policy putting what had been quite well embedded expectations of two, perhaps even three further rate hikes completely to the sword. The focus will above all be on how the BoC revises its forecasts, given that Poloz was not really that downbeat back in December on the overall outlook, and had suggested that the neutral policy rate was somewhere in the 2.50%-3.50% area to keep inflation on target, but a good deal of water has since flowed under the bridge, and it will be interesting to see whether Poloz and Wilkins attempt to lean against markets' dovish view on Canadian (and US) rates. Last week's labour data were very policy neutral, if not non-descript, while yesterday's trade data bore evidence to the toll that the oil price slide has taken on Canadian exports, though soggy imports also underlined weakening domestic demand, above all for raw materials and autos.
** Poland - NBP rate decision **
- Another month of steady rates at 1.50% has long been discounted, and the minutes of the December NBP meeting served to highlight that the majority of NBP MPC members see rates on hold for much of 2019, even if a few policy makers are concerned about upward pressures from some sharp utility price hikes that will be implemented this year. The most recent inflation data (CPI flat m/m 1.1% y/y, core 0.7% y/y) underline that inflation remains well below the NBP's 2.5% target, and as such it sis unsurprising that the NBP feels under no pressure to be pre-emptive, and indeed believes that the impact of the utility price hikes will prove transitory.
from Marc Ostwald
08:39 (48 minutes ago)
to Marc
- Busy schedule of data and events, though politics via way of Brexit
parliamentary debate and results of China/US trade talks may rule the
roost; Germany and US to auction 10-yr debt
- Digesting better than expected Japan Wages, sluggish German Trade,
collapse in Australia Building Approvals, French Consumer Confidence drop,
awaiting UK Q3 Labour Costs
- Fed speakers perhaps more important than now somewhat 'historic' FOMC
minutes, though discussion on economy risks and balance sheet of
specific interest
- Canada: no change expected from BoC, forecasts seen revised lower, some
risk that Poloz and Wilkins lean slightly against dovish market rate view
- Poland: NBP seen on hold today and for most of 2019, very low level of
inflation enables 'wait and stance' as utility prices set to boost CPI
- Tables: Fed and BoC rate probabilities by meeting
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
schedule of data and above all central banking events is a busy one, even if the key statistical events have largely been published. Topping the central bank schedule are the December FOMC minutes and probably more importantly a long line of Fed speakers, with policy meetings in Canada and Poland, a Q&A session with BoE governor Carney and the minutes of the Riksbank bank meeting that initiated what will inevitably be a very low incline rate hike cycle. On the political front the UK parliament has another attempt to debate PM May's Brexit 'deal', that will culminate with a vote on 15 January; there is a high level meeting of US, EU and Japan trade officials, as the noise around the Mueller Russia investigation gets that little bit noisier, above all following the unrelated charges against Russian lawyer Veselnitskaya (present at the 2016 Trump Tower meeting) yesterday on obstruction of justice in a money laundering case. Statistically there are the much better than expected Japan Wages data (above all the 1.6% y/y rise in Regular Pay), as expected Korea Unemployment, German Trade (confirming that Trade should be a net positive for Q4 GDP, but still signalling weakness in foreign and indeed domestic demand, and certainly insufficient to offset a likely sharp decline in business investment, even if personal consumption should be strong), along with Norwegian monthly GDP (soft, but looking like a mean reversion after October's 1.2% m/m surge) to digest ahead of UK Q3 Labour Costs. Government bond supply sees Germany and the US selling 10-yr paper, with the possibility of further syndicated sales of other Eurozone government debt. Oil markets will also be watching the latest EIA inventories data closely, as the seesaw in sentiment continues, as traders try and navigate the fog of how the balance between supply and demand will pan out in 2019. But all of this may be subordinate to whatever is announced in terms of the US/China Trade talks that were concluded today, with the fact that little has been leaked by either side about the talks probably being a positive signal, in so far as neither side appear to want to 'game' the other via leaks to the media, as has been the case all too often over the past year, even if there are likely to be still quite hefty differences on issues on IPR and technology copyrights & security.
** U.S.A. - December FOMC minutes **
- It is more than likely that the 3 Fed speakers - the hawkish Rosengren, hawkish leaning Bostic and the newly less super dovish Evans - will prove more significant than the FOMC minutes, which have been rendered rather historical by Powell's ostensible climb down last week from the ostensibly hawkish December press conference signals. But the minutes should at least shed some light on why Powell was less accommodating in December, above all what aspects of the economy, and indeed financial conditions imparted that hawkish lean, and what were identified as factors that might justify a pause. As much as the message from the press conference was that there were no plans to change the Fed's balance sheet reduction programme (QT), there will surely have been some discussion about it, above all the relative potential merits of pausing on rates, relative to perhaps easing up on the pace of QT. While there was probably some discussion about Trump's verbal interventions on Fed policy, it is quite possible that these may not feature in the minutes, beyond some platitudes about the Fed sticking to its operational independence regardless of such political pressures.
** Canada - BoC rate decision **
- It seems as though the idea of a further rate hike at this BoC meeting is now a very distant memory, with the weaker run of domestic data, and above all the sharp shift in market expectations for Fed policy putting what had been quite well embedded expectations of two, perhaps even three further rate hikes completely to the sword. The focus will above all be on how the BoC revises its forecasts, given that Poloz was not really that downbeat back in December on the overall outlook, and had suggested that the neutral policy rate was somewhere in the 2.50%-3.50% area to keep inflation on target, but a good deal of water has since flowed under the bridge, and it will be interesting to see whether Poloz and Wilkins attempt to lean against markets' dovish view on Canadian (and US) rates. Last week's labour data were very policy neutral, if not non-descript, while yesterday's trade data bore evidence to the toll that the oil price slide has taken on Canadian exports, though soggy imports also underlined weakening domestic demand, above all for raw materials and autos.
** Poland - NBP rate decision **
- Another month of steady rates at 1.50% has long been discounted, and the minutes of the December NBP meeting served to highlight that the majority of NBP MPC members see rates on hold for much of 2019, even if a few policy makers are concerned about upward pressures from some sharp utility price hikes that will be implemented this year. The most recent inflation data (CPI flat m/m 1.1% y/y, core 0.7% y/y) underline that inflation remains well below the NBP's 2.5% target, and as such it sis unsurprising that the NBP feels under no pressure to be pre-emptive, and indeed believes that the impact of the utility price hikes will prove transitory.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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SPX into the open
Dentalfloss
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Dow index..not spreadbet data
Dentalfloss
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lookin like...above 23800 is a dog
lol
got the January blues..trying to cheer up with smilies
lol
got the January blues..trying to cheer up with smilies
Dentalfloss
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Sir Canta
once yu got some levels/areas from p/f...then stalk the price on lower t/f
once yu got some levels/areas from p/f...then stalk the price on lower t/f
Dentalfloss
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Keep stalking
Dentalfloss
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spx
our pivot close up
whack..
our pivot close up
whack..
C
cantagril
Sir Canta
once yu got some levels/areas from p/f...then stalk the price on lower t/f
That's sort of what I'm up to....
Currently short CAC 4835 TPs 4805 & 4770
The Frog numbers have been unexpectedly a tad less crêpe and I reckon that we might be perkier in the short term until folk have realised that yesterday's trumpeting and the new China "deal" is just more of what we've got used to. As they used to say " All mouth and no trousers"
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