Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

Bounce..

 

[Dentalfloss]

bounce

 

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updated

 

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whack

 

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scalps off our purple line area

 

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on to the close...buyers needed

 

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Mornin folks

 

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DAX into the open

 

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Dow into the open
possibly stalling under our trendline

 

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Dow
above 23700 a poss dog
23300-23500 decent supp area
Maybe....

 

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FTSE in support
will it hold..??

 

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lining up

 

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Cable updated
into the trendline

 

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eurusd

 

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will our supp area hold..??

 

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NAZ 100

 

[cantagril]

Morning Dentist et al,

Still got my CAC 4730 long. My original TP was 4800 but as the Dax isn't as perky as I'd like I've reduced it to 4775 and now have a stop at +1.

 

[Dentalfloss]

Busier day for statistics, but politics likely to remain the lightning
rod for markets; poor German Production and French Trade to be digested
ahead of EC Confidence surveys, US NFIB survey and JOLTs Job Openings;
World Bank forecast update and hefty round of US, UK and Eurozone govt
bond auctions

- German Industrial Production: much worse than expected, though forecasts
also poor, broad based slide implies sharp drag from Business Investment
in Q4

- Start of year money flows likely accounts for much of credit spread
tightening, some risk of over-optimism on US/China Trade 'deal' and
'benefits' of Fed rate pause

- Charts: US Financial Conditions, Brent & WTI Oil futures, USD, EUR &
GBP credit spread indices, VIX vs HY spread

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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The day's statistical schedule is quite busy, though it will likely play second fiddle to political issues, specifically the perennial themes of Brexit (as the latest parliamentary debate gets under way), US/China Trade and the US partial govt shutdown, while the doom and gloomsters will doubtless be quick to pounce all over any lowering of growth forecasts for the major economies, when the World Bank publishes its global economic outlook update. Today also provides a fairly stern test of demand in major govt bond markets, as the US sells $38 Bln of 3-yr, while Austria (10 & 30 yr), Germany (11-yr I-L) and Netherlands (5-yr) kick off a busy week for Eurozone bond auctions, with the UK re-opening the current 10-yr Gilt benchmark. In terms of the data run, there are Australian & French Trade, Japan Consumer Confidence & German Industrial Production to digest ahead of Eurozone EC confidence surveys, with NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTs Job Openings to be published, but the Trade data postponed due to the government shutdown. Markets remain very fickle, and appear rather too willing to discount a US/China Trade deal, and probably assuming rather too much in terms of benefits from a Fed rate pause - that said, the widening of credit spreads in Q4 does however offer rather more attractive 'entry' levels, even if the risk of a further widening over the year as a whole remains high, once the typical start of year money flows start to ebb - please see attached charts. Volatility has also eased somewhat, but is clearly now established in a clearly higher range

In terms of the German Industrial Production, the much worse than expected -1.9% m/m -4.7% y/y vs. forecasts of 0.3% m/m -0.8% y/y was not just poor data which signals a fairly high risk of a second consecutive quarter of GDP contraction, but also exceedingly poor forecasting. This is in so far as the fact of Factory Orders having fall in in 9 of 11 months in 2018, so rapid fall in order backlogs was always going to take a heavy toll on output, especially as the orders slide was so heavily concentrated in Capital Goods. The risk of a contraction in GDP is above all exacerbated by the fact that the fall in production in Q4 was broad based, with the previous offset from Construction evaporating with October's -1.2% m/m followed by -1.7% in November, and with Energy Output crashing over the past three months - Sept -5.1% m/m, Oct -2.2% and Nov -3.1% (in part due to the 'Energiewende'), Business Investment is almost certain to fall very heavily, and while trade should not be as big a drag as it was in Q3, it is unlikely to be a positive contributor.

from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

Morning Dentist et al,

Still got my CAC 4730 long. My original TP was 4800 but as the Dax isn't as perky as I'd like I've reduced it to 4775 and now have a stop at +1.

Morning Sir Canta
poss 4752-4760 a rez

 

[Dentalfloss]

1 month of data