Trading with point and figure

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Mornin folks

 

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A wonderful Christmas to all

 

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Our 2510 rez area on SPX was a real hummer yesterday

 

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Dow our rez was out a tad...23403 the high/against our 23352 area
That meant ou box size was slightly out
not a problem....as we are not using hard levels
we are looking for signals in those areas

 

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A quick look at SPX
could easilyt recoil to test that lower trendline

 

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Close up

 

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Dow over last 48 hours
bulls need to keep it above the red

 

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Dax over last 48 hours

 

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Cable updated

 

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chart..using tinypic

 

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Busy schedule of data unlikely to have major impact as equity markets
go through 'quadruple witching', amid UK and US political meltdown

- Japan CPI, France Business Confidence to be digested; UK Current Account
and PSNB, US Durable Goods, Personal Income/PCE & final GDP, Canada BoC
surveys, monthly GDP and Retail Sales; Mexico CPI & monthly GDP

- Charts: GS US Financial Conditions, VIX and MOVE volatility indices

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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It is 'quadruple witching' (futures & options expiry) in equity markets, and after a roller coaster ride during Q4, it will be interesting to see whether that proves to be cathartic, or whether it merely proves to be the last proper trading day of the year, and moves in asset prices largely reflect position liquidation ahead of the Christmas & New Year break. There is a very busy schedule of data, but whether it actually proves to be material in terms of market direction looks to be very debatable. Be that it may, Japanese CPI ('core core' weaker than expected at 0.3% y/y), German Gfk Consumer Confidence and French Business Confidence are to be digested (the latter dipping to 102, with Manufacturing Confidence at 104 vs. Nov 105 - once again underlining that PMIs are often hugely deceptive and inaccurate, in so far they are supposed to reflect actual levels of business activity, but in fact merely reflect sentiment, a timely reminder to pay much more attention to national surveys). Ahead lies the UK Q3 Current Account (seen widening to £-22.0 Bln from £-20.3 Bln) and PSNB (budget), which warm the statistical plate ahead of a busy run of NAFTA data: US Durable Goods, Personal Income & PCE and final Q3 GDP; Canada Q4 BoC Business & Loan Officer surveys, monthly GDP & Retail Sales, and indeed Mexico mid-month CPI & monthly GDP. The other talking points are a) another dreadful week for fund flows, as per the Lipper data with US based equity funds seeing outflows of $34.6 Bln and taxable bond funds outflows of $-10.3 Bln, and b) that for all that the English speaking world is very fond of suggesting that the EU and Eurozone are on the point of collapse, it is Britain and the USA where politics is in complete meltdown, with the resignation of Gen Mattis compounded by the very real threat of another govt shutdown in the US, and the chaos at Gatwick Airport amid the parliamentary gridlock on Brexit begging the observation that both countries would be better served looking to their own doorsteps, before pontificating about Europe.

** U.S.A. - Durable Goods, Personal Income & PCE **
- Durable Goods are seen getting a boost from aircraft orders, bouncing back 1.7% m/m from an above all defence aircraft predicated slide of 4.3% in October, while the core CapEx proxy (non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft) is expected to remain lacklustre with a 0.2% m/m rise seen after a flat m/m reading in October. The KC Fed survey is also due and follows the drop in the NY & Philly Fed surveys, though the headline reading on the latter was deceptive given that Orders picked up. Personal Income and PCE are also due, with both seen at a solid 0.3% m/m, echoing the Average Hourly Earnings and last week's Retail Sales, and suggesting a solid outturn for Q4 Personal Consumption.

Finally, this is the last 'Good Morning' for 2018, and we would like to wish all our readers a very enjoyable holiday season, and all the very best for a happy and prosperous 2019.

from Marc Ostwald

 

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A bit out on Dax support
10512 the low
Excellent results
Box size... A tad
As we say.... Read the price action

 

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Yu cannot spend hours with fiddling box sizes.... Get the general Gist and then look st the price action

 

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Dow into the open
areas to watch

 

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OIL

 

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getting supported....a tad

 

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rez looming

 

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Testing support
will it hold..??

 

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lookin a tad oversold

 

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DOW