Dentalfloss
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Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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a nice pivot for a sell
Dentalfloss
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a nice finish
Dentalfloss
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Mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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Dow
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A closer look
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what happens now..??
Dentalfloss
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DAX into the open
Dentalfloss
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close up
bounced off our trend supp area
bounced off our trend supp area
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting US mid-term election results, Japan Wages, NZ labour data
and German Industrial Production; awaiting Brazil inflation and Japan
Orders; rate decisions in Iceland, Poland & NZ; German 10-yr, US 30-yr
and plenty more corporate earnings
- Poland rates: well below target headline and core CPI to sustain NBP
view of no rate hikes ahead of H2 2019, regardless of strong GDP and
real wage growth
- NZ rates: focus on whether strong Q3 labour data prompts RBNZ to adjust
ambivalence on direction of next rate move
- Japan Orders: expected to drop sharply after 2-month surge, downside
risks due to natural disasters, underlying trend still robust
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As the US wakes up to the rather unsurprising outcome of the US mid-term elections, the remainder of the schedule may be a little too peripheral to current market concerns to gain much traction in market moving terms. There are Japan wages (as expected), NZ Q3 labour data (see RBZN preview for context) and German Industrial Production (marginally above forecast) to digest, ahead of China's FX Reserves, Italian Retail Sales (perhaps a little more sensitive after the weak PMI readings) and Brazil's IPCA IBGE inflation, while tonight brings Japan Machinery Orders. In event terms a busy day for central banks, with Poland's NBP, Iceland's Sedlabanki and the RBNZ all expected to hold interest rates, while tonight has the summary of opinions from last week's BoJ meeting, following on from Kuroda's comments on Monday confirming the BoJ is easing back on its QQE programme, also echoed by BoJ's Fumo overnight. Otherwise, German sells 10-yr and the US 30-yr, with another raft of corporate earnings also due. In terms of the Polish rate decision, the NBP has made it very clear that there is no chance of a rate hike before H2 2019, despite strong GDP (Q2 5.1%, Q3 due 14/11) and Real Wage (4.8% y/y) growth and record Unemployment (5.7%), but with CPI at 1.9% and core CPI 0.8%, both well below the NBP's 2.5% target, there is no pressure, even if utility price and other administered hikes in 2019 are likely to exercise some additional upward pressure.
** New Zealand - RBNZ rate decision **
- The RBNZ shifted to a neutral stance in August, stating that the next rate move could be up or down, and while Q2 GDP picked up, much of that was down to government spending, and was still below the RBNZ's assumption that the potential growth rate is just above 3.0%. NZ CPI is around the 2.0% midpoint of its target range. The Q3 labour data overnight however signal that labour demand is very robust, and that at least in Average Hourly Earnings terms (1.4% q/q vs. expected 0.8%) has picked up sharply from a very weak 0.2% in Q2, which suggests that a rate cut looks increasingly improbable, and could even be dropped as an option. However the fact that the NZ economy is very heavily exposed to demand from China, and by extension to the continued China/US trade tensions, and with the key Dairy market under something of a cloud given the recent fall in prices ,the RBNZ will doubtless stick to a neutral rate outlook for the next quarters.
** Japan - Sept Labour Cash Earnings / Machinery Orders **
- The overnight Labour Cash Earnings (wages) were in line with forecasts posting a 1.1% y/y rise in nominal terms (vs. Aug 0.8%), but still remain in negative territory in real terms at -0.4% y/y vs. August -0.7%. Per se they still represent the modest obvious sign that while the BoJ may not be as gung how about its QQE programme, it is still a distance from being able to contemplate and debate policy normalization. Tonight's super volatile Machinery Orders are expected to post a sharp 9.0% m/m decline, but this follows gains of 11.0% and 6.8% m/m in July & August, and still indicating a solid profile to Business CapEx for Q3, and may perhaps be even weaker due to the series of natural disasters, even if the latter will provide a boost due to rebuilding going forward.
** U.S.A. - Mid-term elections **
- A noted above, the results were rather unsurprising, with Democrats taking the House, but the Republicans increasing their majority in the Senate. While this will serve to rein in Trump's plans for a further tax cut, and should in theory allow for an infrastructure spending plan / programme, given that there is a bipartisan recognition that this is definitely needed. However Trump's nigh on sociopathic need for self-glorification and his total inability to debate any subject other than via aggressive abuse suggests a) that a bipartisan approach is probably doomed to failure before it is even attempted, and b) the 2020 election starts today, and will result in both sides not offering anything for which the other side might be able to take some credit. There will be those that argue that Congressional gridlock is in general terms 'good' for the budget, but perhaps this needs to be re-construed as 'at least the budget deficit will not get any worse'. The real litmus test is whether the tax cut package enacted earlier this year has really given the economy some extra traction, for which there is scant evidence as yet, or on the other hand, it has been a case of 'robbing Peter to pay Paul', i.e. front loading growth from 2019 & 2020, and per se risking a relatively sharp deceleration starting in 2019 (n.b. 'deceleration' not 'recession'), which could see growth slow to 1.5-2.0%. The fact that so much of the tax cut has been used for share buybacks and special dividends, and proportionately so little for CapEx and Wages bodes poorly. The other question is how this outturn plays into trade relations/tensions, above all with China, and the very thorny Steel and Aluminium tariffs, which render the USMCA agreement largely academic and peripheral.
from Marc Ostwald
and German Industrial Production; awaiting Brazil inflation and Japan
Orders; rate decisions in Iceland, Poland & NZ; German 10-yr, US 30-yr
and plenty more corporate earnings
- Poland rates: well below target headline and core CPI to sustain NBP
view of no rate hikes ahead of H2 2019, regardless of strong GDP and
real wage growth
- NZ rates: focus on whether strong Q3 labour data prompts RBNZ to adjust
ambivalence on direction of next rate move
- Japan Orders: expected to drop sharply after 2-month surge, downside
risks due to natural disasters, underlying trend still robust
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As the US wakes up to the rather unsurprising outcome of the US mid-term elections, the remainder of the schedule may be a little too peripheral to current market concerns to gain much traction in market moving terms. There are Japan wages (as expected), NZ Q3 labour data (see RBZN preview for context) and German Industrial Production (marginally above forecast) to digest, ahead of China's FX Reserves, Italian Retail Sales (perhaps a little more sensitive after the weak PMI readings) and Brazil's IPCA IBGE inflation, while tonight brings Japan Machinery Orders. In event terms a busy day for central banks, with Poland's NBP, Iceland's Sedlabanki and the RBNZ all expected to hold interest rates, while tonight has the summary of opinions from last week's BoJ meeting, following on from Kuroda's comments on Monday confirming the BoJ is easing back on its QQE programme, also echoed by BoJ's Fumo overnight. Otherwise, German sells 10-yr and the US 30-yr, with another raft of corporate earnings also due. In terms of the Polish rate decision, the NBP has made it very clear that there is no chance of a rate hike before H2 2019, despite strong GDP (Q2 5.1%, Q3 due 14/11) and Real Wage (4.8% y/y) growth and record Unemployment (5.7%), but with CPI at 1.9% and core CPI 0.8%, both well below the NBP's 2.5% target, there is no pressure, even if utility price and other administered hikes in 2019 are likely to exercise some additional upward pressure.
** New Zealand - RBNZ rate decision **
- The RBNZ shifted to a neutral stance in August, stating that the next rate move could be up or down, and while Q2 GDP picked up, much of that was down to government spending, and was still below the RBNZ's assumption that the potential growth rate is just above 3.0%. NZ CPI is around the 2.0% midpoint of its target range. The Q3 labour data overnight however signal that labour demand is very robust, and that at least in Average Hourly Earnings terms (1.4% q/q vs. expected 0.8%) has picked up sharply from a very weak 0.2% in Q2, which suggests that a rate cut looks increasingly improbable, and could even be dropped as an option. However the fact that the NZ economy is very heavily exposed to demand from China, and by extension to the continued China/US trade tensions, and with the key Dairy market under something of a cloud given the recent fall in prices ,the RBNZ will doubtless stick to a neutral rate outlook for the next quarters.
** Japan - Sept Labour Cash Earnings / Machinery Orders **
- The overnight Labour Cash Earnings (wages) were in line with forecasts posting a 1.1% y/y rise in nominal terms (vs. Aug 0.8%), but still remain in negative territory in real terms at -0.4% y/y vs. August -0.7%. Per se they still represent the modest obvious sign that while the BoJ may not be as gung how about its QQE programme, it is still a distance from being able to contemplate and debate policy normalization. Tonight's super volatile Machinery Orders are expected to post a sharp 9.0% m/m decline, but this follows gains of 11.0% and 6.8% m/m in July & August, and still indicating a solid profile to Business CapEx for Q3, and may perhaps be even weaker due to the series of natural disasters, even if the latter will provide a boost due to rebuilding going forward.
** U.S.A. - Mid-term elections **
- A noted above, the results were rather unsurprising, with Democrats taking the House, but the Republicans increasing their majority in the Senate. While this will serve to rein in Trump's plans for a further tax cut, and should in theory allow for an infrastructure spending plan / programme, given that there is a bipartisan recognition that this is definitely needed. However Trump's nigh on sociopathic need for self-glorification and his total inability to debate any subject other than via aggressive abuse suggests a) that a bipartisan approach is probably doomed to failure before it is even attempted, and b) the 2020 election starts today, and will result in both sides not offering anything for which the other side might be able to take some credit. There will be those that argue that Congressional gridlock is in general terms 'good' for the budget, but perhaps this needs to be re-construed as 'at least the budget deficit will not get any worse'. The real litmus test is whether the tax cut package enacted earlier this year has really given the economy some extra traction, for which there is scant evidence as yet, or on the other hand, it has been a case of 'robbing Peter to pay Paul', i.e. front loading growth from 2019 & 2020, and per se risking a relatively sharp deceleration starting in 2019 (n.b. 'deceleration' not 'recession'), which could see growth slow to 1.5-2.0%. The fact that so much of the tax cut has been used for share buybacks and special dividends, and proportionately so little for CapEx and Wages bodes poorly. The other question is how this outturn plays into trade relations/tensions, above all with China, and the very thorny Steel and Aluminium tariffs, which render the USMCA agreement largely academic and peripheral.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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price pulled back into support
our pivot was out a bit....but was only a rough guide
now in our rez area
our pivot was out a bit....but was only a rough guide
now in our rez area
Dentalfloss
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close up
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
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now what..?
#
#
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dow
gut feeling 25850-26K a big rez area
could be wrong...lol
gut feeling 25850-26K a big rez area
could be wrong...lol
Dentalfloss
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its keepin goin
Dentalfloss
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our balancing row became support/short horizontal....and boom
