Dentalfloss
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oil
missed the dump
bought our support
missed the dump
bought our support
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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I have put on a moving average..thats in 1.3100-1.3110 area
also 1.3030-1.3060 is a supp area
also 1.3030-1.3060 is a supp area
Dentalfloss
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DOW into the open
goin either way
goin either way
Dentalfloss
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trend support is 26700 area/highest aqua
zone between the aqua lines is 26600-26700 area
supp 26667 area
then 26651/highest MA
26619 lowest ma
i have put on some MA within that zone to see if other supp areas are there
Ma on P/F charts are not from the raw data
midpoint of the column
can give an idea of supp/rez
zone between the aqua lines is 26600-26700 area
supp 26667 area
then 26651/highest MA
26619 lowest ma
i have put on some MA within that zone to see if other supp areas are there
Ma on P/F charts are not from the raw data
midpoint of the column
can give an idea of supp/rez
Dentalfloss
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Same data..same box size
1 rev/hilo
26651 -26667 is a decent supp area if it dumps
1 rev/hilo
26651 -26667 is a decent supp area if it dumps
Dentalfloss
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bond prices tanking....helping stocks
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DAX
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OIL
Dentalfloss
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The Week Ahead - Preview: 24 to 28 September 2018
- The month and quarter ending week has a packed schedule of data and events, with the former heavily front loaded with surveys, and back loaded in terms of major data. The Fed and the RBNZ head a long list of central bank policy meetings, above all in the CEE / EM space, while ECB, BoE and BoJ speakers will be plentiful. Govt bond supply will be plentiful with the US offering $106 Bln of coupons and ca. $130 Bln of T-bIll, with Italy offering CTZs, conventional and inflation-linked BTPs, and Germany and UK also holding auctions. But all of this may prove to be so much 'frippery' in the face of the deepening gridlock on Brexit negotiations, the US threat to conclude a Mexico-only trade deal, and the implementation as of Monday of the latest round of US/China trade war tariffs. Watch out too for some confrontation and fireworks in the German grand coalition as the SPD launches a broadside against the CDU/CSU for the rather farcical 'sacking' of a major intelligence agency chief, only for the same person to be appointed to a senior position in the Interior Ministry - as previously suggested, the shelf life of this grand coalition looks to be very limited.
- The data calendar in the US is very 'busy', though the Durable Goods and Personal Income/PCE reports are the items of real significance, amid a sea of surveys (Dallas, Richmond, KC Manufacturing, Chicago PMI and Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing), a further raft of housing data (New & Pending Home Sales, Case Shiller & FHFA House Prices and the generally only minor revisions in the final GDP reading (Q2). Durable Goods Orders are expected to post an aircraft led rise of 1.8%, with the ex-Transport measure seen up a more modest 0.4% m/m (following July's 0.1%), though the key aspect will likely be what materializes on Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (the so-called 'CapEx proxy'), which has posted an impressive run of gains since April of 2.0%, 0.7%, 0.8% and July's 1.6%, with a more modest 0.3% m/m seen for August. Personal Income and PCE are projected to sustain their solid recent profile with respective rises of 0.4% m/m (predicated on that rise in Average Hourly Earnings) and 0.3% m/m, while both headline and core PCE deflators are seen up 0.1% m/m, for y/y readings of 2.2% and 2.0%, in other words around the Fed's target.
Elsewhere, Germany and Japan take top billing, with the former looking to the Ifo survey, provisional CPI and Unemployment, while the latter has Tokyo CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Services PPI and Unemployment. Germany's Ifo survey is forecast to post a further dip to 103.2 vs. August's 103.8, and follows the divergent PMIs (Mfg 53.7 vs. 55.9; Services 56.5 vs. 55.0), and a Bundesbank monthly report which argued that most of the headwinds in Manufacturing are auto sector related, and otherwise the economy remains in good health. Provisional September CPI is unlikely to stir markets' animal spirits if forecasts of 0.1% m/m for an unchanged 2.0% y/y (HICP 1.9%), with the Eurozone CPI seen edging up 0.1 ppt to 2.1% headline and 1.1% core, thanks to similar 0.1 ppt rises in y/y rates for Italy and Spain, with French HICP seen unchanged at 2.6% y/y - as such vindicating the ECB's cautious optimism. As for Japan, Tokyo CPI is seen fractionally lower at 1.1% y/y, with core measures seen mired at subdued levels of 0.9% and 0.6% y/y respectively. In activity terms, Retail Sales are forecast to post a solid 0.5% m/m rise that would push the y/y rate up to 2.1% (from 1.5%), and the firm profile of Private Machinery Orders is expected to see Industrial Production rise 1.5% m/m, even if base effects drag the y/y rate down to 1.5% from 2.1%. As for Unemployment, there is no denying that the Japanese labour market is very tight with the rate seen unchanged at 2.5%, and the jobs to applicants ratio unchanged at 1.63, a level not seen since 1974; but as yet this is not generating that much upward pressure on regular wages, even if it is propelling overtime, bonus and special payments higher. The UK like much of the Eurozone has a run of business and consumer surveys along with the now rather historical final reading on Q2 GDP, while Canada looks to monthly GDP.
- The Fed obviously takes pride of place on this week's central bank calendar, with a further 25 bps rate hike to 2.0-2.25% having long been heavily discounted, and a further hike in December already heavily discounted. This is a press conference meeting, and it will therefore also have a fresh set of FOMC projections, and an updated dot plot. As ever markets immediate reaction will depend on the latter with new Fed vice-chair Clarida expected to impart a mildly dovish shift, though unlikely to offset signs that some previously die hard doves have shifted to a neutral even mildly hawkish stance (Brainard, Evans). Be that at it may, the focus will also be on the latest set of FOMC projections, which will include perhaps importantly include forecasts for 2021, which may be lower than potentially upwardly revised forecasts for 2020. Headline and core inflation forecasts will likely remain around the Fed's target, while Unemployment Rate projections should underline why the Fed is still some distance from pausing the current rate hike cycle, in so far as these are likely to be pegged in the 3.5%-3.6% area (as was the case in June), in other words well below the FOMC's assumption of a long run rate of 4.5%. GDP projections should in principle be little changed, though Powell will doubtless emphasize risks from escalating trade tensions. The question then is how much emphasis is placed on loose financial conditions, the rise in government and corporate debt, and any comment on current asset price valuations. As outlined in this video from Friday https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FR9fHbvTKfU&feature=youtu.be , the key will be how much Powell & the FOMC emphasize that while it is very comfortable with the inflation outlook, it needs to stick to the current 'gradual' tightening path given very low unemployment and strong growth. Last but not least, there will be a lot of interest in what is said about trade tensions and EM woes, as well as any indications about the future of its balance sheet reduction programme.
As for New Zealand's RBNZ, rates are expected to be held at the record low 1.75% level. Last week's stronger than expected Q2 GDP (3.0% y/y) is unlikely to alter the RBNZ's assertion that the next move in rates could be either up or down, in so far as inflation and wage growth remain very subdued. G7 central bank speakers will be very plentiful, and the roster includes Draghi's regular testimony to the European parliament. A close eye also needs to be kept on the Czech central bank, which is expected to hike rates by a further 25 bps to 1.50% (cumulative total 145 bps) and signal a further rate hike before year, given that growth remains robust, inflation elevated and the CZK relatively subdued. A very busy week for EM central banks is expected to see further rate hikes in Indonesia (+25 bps to 5.75%) and the Philippines (+50 bps to 4.50%), while Ghana's central bank is expected to cut rates by 50 bps to 16.50%. There are also policy meetings in Angola, Colombia, Egypt, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Morocco, Nigeria and Sri Lanka, which are expected to see rates on hold.
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
- The month and quarter ending week has a packed schedule of data and events, with the former heavily front loaded with surveys, and back loaded in terms of major data. The Fed and the RBNZ head a long list of central bank policy meetings, above all in the CEE / EM space, while ECB, BoE and BoJ speakers will be plentiful. Govt bond supply will be plentiful with the US offering $106 Bln of coupons and ca. $130 Bln of T-bIll, with Italy offering CTZs, conventional and inflation-linked BTPs, and Germany and UK also holding auctions. But all of this may prove to be so much 'frippery' in the face of the deepening gridlock on Brexit negotiations, the US threat to conclude a Mexico-only trade deal, and the implementation as of Monday of the latest round of US/China trade war tariffs. Watch out too for some confrontation and fireworks in the German grand coalition as the SPD launches a broadside against the CDU/CSU for the rather farcical 'sacking' of a major intelligence agency chief, only for the same person to be appointed to a senior position in the Interior Ministry - as previously suggested, the shelf life of this grand coalition looks to be very limited.
- The data calendar in the US is very 'busy', though the Durable Goods and Personal Income/PCE reports are the items of real significance, amid a sea of surveys (Dallas, Richmond, KC Manufacturing, Chicago PMI and Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing), a further raft of housing data (New & Pending Home Sales, Case Shiller & FHFA House Prices and the generally only minor revisions in the final GDP reading (Q2). Durable Goods Orders are expected to post an aircraft led rise of 1.8%, with the ex-Transport measure seen up a more modest 0.4% m/m (following July's 0.1%), though the key aspect will likely be what materializes on Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (the so-called 'CapEx proxy'), which has posted an impressive run of gains since April of 2.0%, 0.7%, 0.8% and July's 1.6%, with a more modest 0.3% m/m seen for August. Personal Income and PCE are projected to sustain their solid recent profile with respective rises of 0.4% m/m (predicated on that rise in Average Hourly Earnings) and 0.3% m/m, while both headline and core PCE deflators are seen up 0.1% m/m, for y/y readings of 2.2% and 2.0%, in other words around the Fed's target.
Elsewhere, Germany and Japan take top billing, with the former looking to the Ifo survey, provisional CPI and Unemployment, while the latter has Tokyo CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Services PPI and Unemployment. Germany's Ifo survey is forecast to post a further dip to 103.2 vs. August's 103.8, and follows the divergent PMIs (Mfg 53.7 vs. 55.9; Services 56.5 vs. 55.0), and a Bundesbank monthly report which argued that most of the headwinds in Manufacturing are auto sector related, and otherwise the economy remains in good health. Provisional September CPI is unlikely to stir markets' animal spirits if forecasts of 0.1% m/m for an unchanged 2.0% y/y (HICP 1.9%), with the Eurozone CPI seen edging up 0.1 ppt to 2.1% headline and 1.1% core, thanks to similar 0.1 ppt rises in y/y rates for Italy and Spain, with French HICP seen unchanged at 2.6% y/y - as such vindicating the ECB's cautious optimism. As for Japan, Tokyo CPI is seen fractionally lower at 1.1% y/y, with core measures seen mired at subdued levels of 0.9% and 0.6% y/y respectively. In activity terms, Retail Sales are forecast to post a solid 0.5% m/m rise that would push the y/y rate up to 2.1% (from 1.5%), and the firm profile of Private Machinery Orders is expected to see Industrial Production rise 1.5% m/m, even if base effects drag the y/y rate down to 1.5% from 2.1%. As for Unemployment, there is no denying that the Japanese labour market is very tight with the rate seen unchanged at 2.5%, and the jobs to applicants ratio unchanged at 1.63, a level not seen since 1974; but as yet this is not generating that much upward pressure on regular wages, even if it is propelling overtime, bonus and special payments higher. The UK like much of the Eurozone has a run of business and consumer surveys along with the now rather historical final reading on Q2 GDP, while Canada looks to monthly GDP.
- The Fed obviously takes pride of place on this week's central bank calendar, with a further 25 bps rate hike to 2.0-2.25% having long been heavily discounted, and a further hike in December already heavily discounted. This is a press conference meeting, and it will therefore also have a fresh set of FOMC projections, and an updated dot plot. As ever markets immediate reaction will depend on the latter with new Fed vice-chair Clarida expected to impart a mildly dovish shift, though unlikely to offset signs that some previously die hard doves have shifted to a neutral even mildly hawkish stance (Brainard, Evans). Be that at it may, the focus will also be on the latest set of FOMC projections, which will include perhaps importantly include forecasts for 2021, which may be lower than potentially upwardly revised forecasts for 2020. Headline and core inflation forecasts will likely remain around the Fed's target, while Unemployment Rate projections should underline why the Fed is still some distance from pausing the current rate hike cycle, in so far as these are likely to be pegged in the 3.5%-3.6% area (as was the case in June), in other words well below the FOMC's assumption of a long run rate of 4.5%. GDP projections should in principle be little changed, though Powell will doubtless emphasize risks from escalating trade tensions. The question then is how much emphasis is placed on loose financial conditions, the rise in government and corporate debt, and any comment on current asset price valuations. As outlined in this video from Friday https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FR9fHbvTKfU&feature=youtu.be , the key will be how much Powell & the FOMC emphasize that while it is very comfortable with the inflation outlook, it needs to stick to the current 'gradual' tightening path given very low unemployment and strong growth. Last but not least, there will be a lot of interest in what is said about trade tensions and EM woes, as well as any indications about the future of its balance sheet reduction programme.
As for New Zealand's RBNZ, rates are expected to be held at the record low 1.75% level. Last week's stronger than expected Q2 GDP (3.0% y/y) is unlikely to alter the RBNZ's assertion that the next move in rates could be either up or down, in so far as inflation and wage growth remain very subdued. G7 central bank speakers will be very plentiful, and the roster includes Draghi's regular testimony to the European parliament. A close eye also needs to be kept on the Czech central bank, which is expected to hike rates by a further 25 bps to 1.50% (cumulative total 145 bps) and signal a further rate hike before year, given that growth remains robust, inflation elevated and the CZK relatively subdued. A very busy week for EM central banks is expected to see further rate hikes in Indonesia (+25 bps to 5.75%) and the Philippines (+50 bps to 4.50%), while Ghana's central bank is expected to cut rates by 50 bps to 16.50%. There are also policy meetings in Angola, Colombia, Egypt, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Morocco, Nigeria and Sri Lanka, which are expected to see rates on hold.
..........................................................................
MARC OSTWALD
Global Strategist & Chief Economist
ADM Investor Services International Limited
Dentalfloss
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mornin folks
Dentalfloss
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FTSE into the open
Dentalfloss
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EURUSD
comin off the boil into support area
comin off the boil into support area
Dentalfloss
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UJ
comin into support
comin into support
Dentalfloss
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Cable
bounce
comin into our rez area
bounce
comin into our rez area
