Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

ftse in rez

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse in rez

chart

 

[Dentalfloss]

chart

whacked...for a few

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse
7700-7737...a wodge of supp
turns nasty if bounce stays below 7750 area

 

[Dentalfloss]

dax
watch that range...for any break

 

[Dentalfloss]

further deluge of central banks speakers, including Powell & Carney,
accompany Tokyo CPI, German Ifo survey, UK Q1 GDP details and US
Durable Goods; long weekends ahead in UK and USA

- Germany Ifo: will it or won't it mirror the PMI?

- UK Q1 GDP: seen unrevised, trade the one small ray of sunshine

- US Durable Goods Orders: dip in aircraft orders seen leading headline
low, solid core readings expected

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********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Ahead of the long holiday weekends in the UK and US, there is a further deluge of central bank speakers (fed, ECB & BoE), accompanied a number of first division statistical ragging from the overnight Tokyo CPI data, through the German Ifo survey and detailed breakdown of the weak UK Q1 GDP to the often very volatile US Durable Goods Orders, which follows a run of very robust May regional manufacturing surveys this week (KC Fed yesterday making another all-time high after a record high in April). Markets will as ever be on guard for China/US Trade, Korea and Iran news, and will also be watching out for headlines from the EU Ecofin Council meeting about the current state of Brexit talks.

** Germany - May Ifo Business Climate **
- The key point of interest on today's Ifo survey, where the headline Business Climate is seen little changed at 102.0, will be whether it mirrors the weakness seen in the Services PMI or, as is not infrequently the case, it casts doubt on the PMI. The survey does follow on from the Q1 GDP breakdown, which underlined that while headline GDP did lose considerable momentum, the details on CapEx (1.7% q/q) and Construction Investment (2.1% q/q) were strong, with the main drag coming from a relatively sharp fall in Govt Spending (-0.5% q/q), and a marginal 0.1 ppt deduction from Trade.

** U.K. - Q1 GDP **
- In contrast to the German GDP data yesterday, where the details proved to be a lot more encouraging than headline, the detailed version of UK Q1 GDP is seen unrevised at 0.1% q/q 1.2% y/y. Private Consumption is perhaps a little optimistically seen up 0.1%, while Gross Fixed Capital Formation is forecast to have fallen 0.2% q/q, and the key March Index of Services is projected to have eked out a rise of 0.1% q/q to leave Q1 Services output up 0.3% q/q. The one ray of sunshine is expected to be Trade with Exports seen up 0.4% q/q and Imports 0.1%, though that would highlight the point that domestic demand basically stalled in Q1, with the jury out on whether this was primarily a weather effect or a signal that the UK economy is not only facing headwinds from Brexit related uncertainty, but also consumers struggling under a combination of negative real wage growth for a protracted period, and a renewed debt binge.

** U.S.A. - April Durable Goods Orders **
- As is often the case, headline Orders are expected to be lead down modestly by aircraft, with a drop of 1.3% m/m seen after an aircraft led surge of 2.6% m/m in March. But in contrast to March, the core measures are expected to post solid gains - ex-Transport 0.5% vs. March +0.1%, with Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft seen rebounding 0.7% after an unexpected 0.4% drop in March. As noted above, survey data suggests that the US Manufacturing sector is in rude health, even though the boost to CapEx from the Trump tax cuts does in truth look relatively modest, with many companies still preferring to use the tax cuts for financial engineering - which in the longer run bodes very poorly for growth, above all given the sharp rise in the corporate debt burden.

From Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse

 

[Dentalfloss]

7750 workin well
scalps off that

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse
7700-7737...a wodge of supp
turns nasty if bounce stays below 7750 area

not nasty as yet
7750 workin well

 

[Dentalfloss]

Cable lining up

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil $70.0 bounce

 

[Dentalfloss]

eurusd

 

[Dentalfloss]

$70.00 break
excellent stuff

will it get bought at Nymex open ..??

 

[cantagril]

Made it down to 1.2890 when I was otherwise occupied and have just now been stopped out at b/e. Might have another try depending on pa

 

[Dentalfloss]

oil...not good for ftse

 

[Dentalfloss]

ftse
bulls fighting back...a tad

 

[Dentalfloss]

Cable updated

 

[Dentalfloss]

before

 

[cantagril]

Short UC 1.2970 Target 1.2925

 

[Dentalfloss]

Great long weekend to all