Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dow
Can ya stay above our line..??
or not...lol
Can ya stay above our line..??
or not...lol
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Germany
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
we gotta a trend break yesterday morning at 8am..ish
same time as ftse
same time as ftse
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
change inputs...2 box reversal
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
12900 is a decent supp area
turns nasty if that becomes rez
turns nasty if that becomes rez
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Ftse
care with shorts
care with shorts
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Cable
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
- Central bank speakers likely to overwhelm data run: UK Retail Sales,
US Existing Home Sales and weekly jobless claims in focus, US and UK
to sell bonds
- U.K. Retail Sales: headline forecast perhaps a little inflated, but CPI
'miss' likely to be a positive
- German Q1 GDP: details much better than overly maligned headline drop
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's schedule is primarily about the avalanche of Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE and RBA speakers along with the the ECB minutes, and the SPIEF meeting in Russia, at which the Saudi and Russian energy ministers will be meeting, and therefore may yield more headlines about "easing" the OPEC/Non-OPEC production curbs. The data schedule is not without its highlights, but will definitely be subordinate in market influence terms, particularly if there are further 'snaps' on US/China trade or North Korea. But for what its worth, there are the German GDP details, UK Retail Sales, US weekly jobless claims and Existing Home Sales, and mid-month CPI in Mexico, which should offer some clues on any fall-out in inflation terms from the latest MXN drop. On the Govt bond supply front, the UK reopens the 2036 index-linked Gilt, while the US rounds off this week's $270 Bln refunding exercise with $30 Bln of 7-yr T-Notes. The key aspects of the ECB minutes will be a) how long the council is thinking of pushing back on a decision on ending or modestly extending its QE, b) how much concern was there that the Q1 slowdown was not just transitory, c) have they started to think about they are going to do about the EUR 432 Bln of LTROs expiring in September, particularly as previous large volume expiries have seen banks unwinding these up to 3 months ahead of the event, i.e. this could start as early as mid/late June.
** U.K. - April Retail Sales **
- After a dismal -1.2% m/m in March, which was in part weather and Easter timing related, April's Retail Sales are expected to bounce back with a 0.9% m/m increase at the headline level, though the ex-Petrol measure is seen up a more modest 0.5% m/m, exactly reversing March's -0.5%. The pointers from the CPI data (given that this is inflation adjusted data) suggest that the headline may be a little optimistic given the rise in petrol prices, though there should be a boost / offset from Food, given the rather anomalous -0.2% m/m (out of line with BRC Shop Prices), and Furniture/Household Equipment (-0.8% m/m), and the better weather should have given a modest boost to seasonal Clothing sales. If forecasts are correct, then the more reliable underlying trend indicator that is the 3-mth/3-mth comparison should move back into positive territory (March -0.5%, Feb -0.3%), though only modestly.
** Germany - Q1 GDP details **
- The detailed view on German Q1 GDP underlined exactly why the Bundesbank, and indeed the ECB, are sticking to their upbeat view on the economy, above all given the large drag from Govt Spending (-0.5% q/q), while Construction Investment (2.1% q/q vs. f'cast 1.0%), Capital Investment (1.7% q/ vs. expected 1.1%) and to a much smaller extent Private Consumption (0.4% q/q vs. f'cast 0.2%) propelled the economy higher. As previously note, if Construction Investment was that strong when weather effects as were as adverse as Q1, heaven knows what Q2 will look like. The PMI driven negative narrative on the German economy looks to be a none too infrequent case of misdiagnosis by the Schadenfreude afficionados in financial markets!
from Marc Ostwald
US Existing Home Sales and weekly jobless claims in focus, US and UK
to sell bonds
- U.K. Retail Sales: headline forecast perhaps a little inflated, but CPI
'miss' likely to be a positive
- German Q1 GDP: details much better than overly maligned headline drop
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today's schedule is primarily about the avalanche of Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE and RBA speakers along with the the ECB minutes, and the SPIEF meeting in Russia, at which the Saudi and Russian energy ministers will be meeting, and therefore may yield more headlines about "easing" the OPEC/Non-OPEC production curbs. The data schedule is not without its highlights, but will definitely be subordinate in market influence terms, particularly if there are further 'snaps' on US/China trade or North Korea. But for what its worth, there are the German GDP details, UK Retail Sales, US weekly jobless claims and Existing Home Sales, and mid-month CPI in Mexico, which should offer some clues on any fall-out in inflation terms from the latest MXN drop. On the Govt bond supply front, the UK reopens the 2036 index-linked Gilt, while the US rounds off this week's $270 Bln refunding exercise with $30 Bln of 7-yr T-Notes. The key aspects of the ECB minutes will be a) how long the council is thinking of pushing back on a decision on ending or modestly extending its QE, b) how much concern was there that the Q1 slowdown was not just transitory, c) have they started to think about they are going to do about the EUR 432 Bln of LTROs expiring in September, particularly as previous large volume expiries have seen banks unwinding these up to 3 months ahead of the event, i.e. this could start as early as mid/late June.
** U.K. - April Retail Sales **
- After a dismal -1.2% m/m in March, which was in part weather and Easter timing related, April's Retail Sales are expected to bounce back with a 0.9% m/m increase at the headline level, though the ex-Petrol measure is seen up a more modest 0.5% m/m, exactly reversing March's -0.5%. The pointers from the CPI data (given that this is inflation adjusted data) suggest that the headline may be a little optimistic given the rise in petrol prices, though there should be a boost / offset from Food, given the rather anomalous -0.2% m/m (out of line with BRC Shop Prices), and Furniture/Household Equipment (-0.8% m/m), and the better weather should have given a modest boost to seasonal Clothing sales. If forecasts are correct, then the more reliable underlying trend indicator that is the 3-mth/3-mth comparison should move back into positive territory (March -0.5%, Feb -0.3%), though only modestly.
** Germany - Q1 GDP details **
- The detailed view on German Q1 GDP underlined exactly why the Bundesbank, and indeed the ECB, are sticking to their upbeat view on the economy, above all given the large drag from Govt Spending (-0.5% q/q), while Construction Investment (2.1% q/q vs. f'cast 1.0%), Capital Investment (1.7% q/ vs. expected 1.1%) and to a much smaller extent Private Consumption (0.4% q/q vs. f'cast 0.2%) propelled the economy higher. As previously note, if Construction Investment was that strong when weather effects as were as adverse as Q1, heaven knows what Q2 will look like. The PMI driven negative narrative on the German economy looks to be a none too infrequent case of misdiagnosis by the Schadenfreude afficionados in financial markets!
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
SPX lined up
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Naz
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Cable
cable into rez
C
cantagril
Morning all,
Had an order in overnight to buy EG at .8750 and have just seen now that it missed by 3 pips
Might still happen with the UK numbers or the ECB drivel later on...
Long EG at .8750 Target .8795
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
OIl
in supp area
in supp area
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
pivot worked a treat
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
dax
a tad oversold
a tad oversold
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
change inputs
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
in horizontal supp now..and a tad oversold
will it bounce ..??
will it bounce ..??
