Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
12800 area held....and whammo
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
12800 area held....and whammo
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Cable in a bounce area
bounced...excellent stuff
C
cantagril
Morning all,
Looking at EG today.
The EU forecasts at 10h00 are most likely (IMO) to be a non-event with little volatility.
15min looks modestly bearish and we're maybe heading back to .8760/70 at which point I'll try a modest long with a target around .8805/15
Looking at EG today.
The EU forecasts at 10h00 are most likely (IMO) to be a non-event with little volatility.
15min looks modestly bearish and we're maybe heading back to .8760/70 at which point I'll try a modest long with a target around .8805/15
Attachments
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
mornin folks
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Sir Canta
EG
EG
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
difficult.....lol
cos.
dont know if iits a pullback or a new downtrend
cos.
dont know if iits a pullback or a new downtrend
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
7pm /UK Trump presses the Nuke button
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
do we pullback....and rally if he takes his finger off the button..??
or do we pullback and he fires
or do we rally...no matter what
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
EG in supp area
chart ccomin
chart ccomin
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
in trend supp area now
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
from Marc Ostwald
- Digesting busy run of overnight data - China and German Trade, Japan
Household Spending, Australia Retail Sales and German Production;
awaiting Powell, US NFIB survey & JOLTS Job Opening; Trump Iran
decision, EU Brexit talks evaluation top political schedule
- China Trade: solid profile post Lunar New Year noise: imports data
showing limited trade tariff related impact thus far
- Japan Household Spending suggests risk ofQ1 GDP contraction
- Germany: modest Production rebound signals positive momentum going
into Q2, offers counterpoint to weak orders
- US NFIB/JOLTs expected to underline activity and labour demand robust
- Chart: WTI Oil future
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The political narratives of Iran (Trump decision due this evening), Trade tensions and Brexit will continue to be a key source of turbulence, even if the impact is frequently of thee short lived, knee-jerk variety, with today seeing the EU27 deliberating on the current state of Brexit negotiations. Fed chairman Powell's takes pride of place on the central bank speakers schedule. Otherwise there are the Chinese and German Trade negotiations to digest ahead of this afternoon's USA NFIB survey and JOLTS Job Openings, while the govt bond auction schedule sees a busy day for the Eurozone with Netherlands 10-yr DSL, Austria 10 & 30-yr and an as ever modest offering of inflation-linked Bunds in Germany (2030/2047), ahead of the first leg of the US quarterly refunding with an upsized US$31 Bln of 3-yr T-Notes. Corporate earnings reports are plentiful, featuring amongst others: Continental AG, Deutsche Post, DSM, E.On, Intesa Sanpaolo, LafargeHolcim, Liberty Global, Munich Re; Discovery, Dish Network, Electronic Arts, Marriott International, Martin Marietta Materials, Occidental Petroleum, TripAdvisor, Valeant Pharmaceuticals, Walt Disney and Petrobras. Both the US NFIB Small Business Optimism and the JOLTS Job Openings data are expected to confirm that the US economy is in very good health, and labour demand remains strong. Within the NFIB survey (headline forecast 104.5 vs. March 104.7), last month's dip was almost wholly attributable to a relatively sharp setback in expectations, while items such as orders, prices, employment and wages remained close to their highs, as such a function of Trump's trade rhetoric rather than a dip in demand.
China's Trade Data easily beat forecasts in USD terms, even if the CNY denominated data were broadly in line with forecasts, and underline that the sharp fluctuations in February and March were the usual Lunar New Year related noise. In the commodity details, the focus naturally falls on both Soybeans and Aluminium. The sharp fall in Soybean imports runs against port arrivals data, which confirms reports that customs are scrutinising imports rather more closely before they are cleared. The Aluminium data show little or no impact from the imposition tariffs, suggesting that China's domestic output is largely covering demand, and producers are taking any tariffs 'on the chin' to ensure steady supplies, while exports show no evidence thus far of any impact, though as with steel, Aluminium exports to the US are relatively modest as a proportion of the total. Coal and Copper imports continue to show the impact of environment related curbs, though the fall in coal imports has as much to do with seasonal factors as utilities demand drops after winter, while Copper imports reflect curbs on scrap imports. In respect of Iron Ore imports, these do run slightly counter to rising exports from Australia, and expectations that Steel producers would ramp up imports after the winter production curbs that ended in mid-March. Last but not least, oil sector data saw crude imports at a record in bpd terms at 9.6 Mln (beating January's 9.57 Mln), even if some of the so-called 'teapot' refiners imports were boosted by order backlogs, be that as it may it does underline that refiners continue to ramp up output, against a favourable margin backdrop (in contrast to the US), with fuel exports rising a whopping 46% yr/yr. The latter may well become more of a factor for oil markets, if Trump were to deploy some sort of fudge / temporary extension when he announces his decision on the waiver extension later, as had been mooted by some. Japan's Household Spending (which is notoriously erratic) bodes poorly for Q1 GDP, with a big miss for March at -0.7% y/y vs an expected +1.0%, compounded by a sharp downward revision to February to -0.9% y/y from +0.1%, and suggests that Q1 GDP (due 16 May) may even contract, given that the current consensus for flat q/q reading is predicated on a flat reading for Private Consumption, which looks very optimistic on the basis of the Household spending data. German Trade data were mixed with Exports in line with forecasts at 1.7% m/m (vs. February -3.1%), while Imports unexpectedly fell 0.9% m/m (vs. forecast +1.0%, February -1.4%), but are probably less significant than the Production report. Industrial Production just beat forecasts at 1.0% m/m 3.2% y/y, thus offering some grounds for suggesting that Q1's dip was more strike and weather related, and that momentum going into Q2 was positive, notwithstanding the weak Orders data reported yesterday (-0.9% m/m, though domestic orders rise 1.5%).
RECAP: The Week Ahead - Preview: 07 to 11 May 2018
- As has been the case for much of this year, political factors may end up riding up roughshod over what is a reasonably busy week for major economic data (US, China, UK, Eurozone), with the BoE meeting, US Treasury quarterly refunding and plenty more corporate earnings as an accompaniment. The political clouds are familiar: Trump's likely decision to exit the Iran nuclear pact, another round of NAFTA talks, Brexit negotiations (both within the governing (pardon, what? Ed.) UK Conservative party and UK/EU) and a looming crunch decision on whether a fresh set of elections will be held in Italy. (The UK & Ireland being closed on Monday).
- Statistically this week's US CPI is expected to confirm the upward creep in inflation data, though adverse base effects (that will continue until the end of Q2) are a key contributing element, and the Fed's emphasis on a symmetric approach to its inflation target must be borne in mind. As such the projections for headline CPI at 0.3% m/m 2.5% y/y (March 2.4%) and core CPI at 0.2% m/m 2.2% y/y (March 2.1%) are hardly going to create a headache for the FOMC. PPI is expected to be well behaved at 2.8% y/y despite surveys indicating upward pressure on Prices Paid; Import prices, NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings are also due. For China, a close eye will be kept on any evidence that trade tariff moves by both US and China are starting to have an impact on PPI, which is seen at a still very subdued 3.4% y/y vs. March's 3.1%, while CPI is expected to dip a little further to 1.9% y/y from 2.1%, underlining a lack of inflation pressures, though the Non-food component (last 2.1% y/y) probably give a rather more reliable pointer to the trend rate. Be that as it may, it should allow the PBoC to concentrate on easing RRR rates, rather than tweaking s-t interest rates to try and influence the overall credit impulse. The Bank of Japan remains a long way from getting any real traction on boosting CPI, and will hardly greet an expected no change 1.0% y/y on nominal Labour Cash Earnings (wages) with any satisfaction, in so far as this implies real Labour Cash Earnings will continue to languish in negative territory at -0.4% y/y. The UK and the major European economies will report Industrial Production and Trade numbers this week, with the hope that they should underline that the January and February weakness was heavily influenced by weather effects (with German & French output further hampered by strikes), though it has to be added that March weather across Northern Europe was for choice worse than February). Further highlights include UK Construction Output, BRC Retail Sales and RICS House Prices, and Canada has its labour market report.
- The sharp volte-face on UK rate expectations following Carney's comments, weak Q1 GDP and last week's Services PMI have seen the probability of a hike on 10 May plunge from 87% to just 10%, though markets are still discounting a 53% chance of a 25 bps hike in August. The vote may be rather closer than the 7-2 against a hike at recent meetings, and the bank's fresh round of economic forecasts in its Q2 Inflation Report will be critical in determining whether markets continue to discount one hike this year. New Zealand's RBNZ is not expected to move on rates, and indeed the consensus looks for a rate hike no earlier than Q2 2019. For all that last week's NZ Wage growth remained very soft (0.3% q/q), the drop in the Unemployment Rate to a very low 4.4%, allied with the NZD falling more than they had been assuming may just prompt to take a slightly less dovish turn in its accompanying policy statement. Rate hikes of 25 bps are expected in Romania (to 2.5% - delivered) and Philippines (to 3.25%), though the former is due to a frothy economy (above all Wages at 11.2% y/y), and the latter a rather belated response to partly currency driven pressure on CPI (last 4.5% y/y vs. BSP target of 2.0-4.0%). There will be a goodly volume of Fed and ECB speak, while no change rate decisions are expected in Malaysia (where the general election takes place next week), Mauritius, Peru, Serbia and Sri Lanka (the latter may surprise given LKR weakness).
- Govt bond supply picks up sharply next week (see table below), with the US leading the way with a total of $73 Bln of 3, 10 & 30 yr, accompanied by $90 Bln of 3 & 6-month T-bills, and something in the region of $40 Bln of 1-month T-Bills. The UK tops up its current 10-yr Gilt, while the Eurozone sees auctions in Austria, Germany, Italy x2), Netherlands and Portugal.
- The Iran nuclear deal exit by the US is well discounted by oil markets, any surprise may could prompt some volatility, while the droughts in the US and South America have powered sharp rise in Wheat prices, and there will thus be a lot of attention given to this week's May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
- Corporate earnings will remain plentiful, with highlights for the rest of the week including:
* Wednesday:
SoftBank, Toyota // Ahold Delhaize, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Deutsche Telekom, Enel, ING, Siemens, UniCredit // ADT, Altice USA, CenturyLink, Coty, IAC/InterActiveCorp, MBIA, Mylan, 21st Century Fox // Ambev
* Thursday:
Panasonic // BT Group, Dropbox, Nvidia. Symantec, Ultra Petroleum // Banco do Brasil
* Friday:
Nissan // Altice SA, ArcelorMittal, Thomson Reuters
- Digesting busy run of overnight data - China and German Trade, Japan
Household Spending, Australia Retail Sales and German Production;
awaiting Powell, US NFIB survey & JOLTS Job Opening; Trump Iran
decision, EU Brexit talks evaluation top political schedule
- China Trade: solid profile post Lunar New Year noise: imports data
showing limited trade tariff related impact thus far
- Japan Household Spending suggests risk ofQ1 GDP contraction
- Germany: modest Production rebound signals positive momentum going
into Q2, offers counterpoint to weak orders
- US NFIB/JOLTs expected to underline activity and labour demand robust
- Chart: WTI Oil future
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
The political narratives of Iran (Trump decision due this evening), Trade tensions and Brexit will continue to be a key source of turbulence, even if the impact is frequently of thee short lived, knee-jerk variety, with today seeing the EU27 deliberating on the current state of Brexit negotiations. Fed chairman Powell's takes pride of place on the central bank speakers schedule. Otherwise there are the Chinese and German Trade negotiations to digest ahead of this afternoon's USA NFIB survey and JOLTS Job Openings, while the govt bond auction schedule sees a busy day for the Eurozone with Netherlands 10-yr DSL, Austria 10 & 30-yr and an as ever modest offering of inflation-linked Bunds in Germany (2030/2047), ahead of the first leg of the US quarterly refunding with an upsized US$31 Bln of 3-yr T-Notes. Corporate earnings reports are plentiful, featuring amongst others: Continental AG, Deutsche Post, DSM, E.On, Intesa Sanpaolo, LafargeHolcim, Liberty Global, Munich Re; Discovery, Dish Network, Electronic Arts, Marriott International, Martin Marietta Materials, Occidental Petroleum, TripAdvisor, Valeant Pharmaceuticals, Walt Disney and Petrobras. Both the US NFIB Small Business Optimism and the JOLTS Job Openings data are expected to confirm that the US economy is in very good health, and labour demand remains strong. Within the NFIB survey (headline forecast 104.5 vs. March 104.7), last month's dip was almost wholly attributable to a relatively sharp setback in expectations, while items such as orders, prices, employment and wages remained close to their highs, as such a function of Trump's trade rhetoric rather than a dip in demand.
China's Trade Data easily beat forecasts in USD terms, even if the CNY denominated data were broadly in line with forecasts, and underline that the sharp fluctuations in February and March were the usual Lunar New Year related noise. In the commodity details, the focus naturally falls on both Soybeans and Aluminium. The sharp fall in Soybean imports runs against port arrivals data, which confirms reports that customs are scrutinising imports rather more closely before they are cleared. The Aluminium data show little or no impact from the imposition tariffs, suggesting that China's domestic output is largely covering demand, and producers are taking any tariffs 'on the chin' to ensure steady supplies, while exports show no evidence thus far of any impact, though as with steel, Aluminium exports to the US are relatively modest as a proportion of the total. Coal and Copper imports continue to show the impact of environment related curbs, though the fall in coal imports has as much to do with seasonal factors as utilities demand drops after winter, while Copper imports reflect curbs on scrap imports. In respect of Iron Ore imports, these do run slightly counter to rising exports from Australia, and expectations that Steel producers would ramp up imports after the winter production curbs that ended in mid-March. Last but not least, oil sector data saw crude imports at a record in bpd terms at 9.6 Mln (beating January's 9.57 Mln), even if some of the so-called 'teapot' refiners imports were boosted by order backlogs, be that as it may it does underline that refiners continue to ramp up output, against a favourable margin backdrop (in contrast to the US), with fuel exports rising a whopping 46% yr/yr. The latter may well become more of a factor for oil markets, if Trump were to deploy some sort of fudge / temporary extension when he announces his decision on the waiver extension later, as had been mooted by some. Japan's Household Spending (which is notoriously erratic) bodes poorly for Q1 GDP, with a big miss for March at -0.7% y/y vs an expected +1.0%, compounded by a sharp downward revision to February to -0.9% y/y from +0.1%, and suggests that Q1 GDP (due 16 May) may even contract, given that the current consensus for flat q/q reading is predicated on a flat reading for Private Consumption, which looks very optimistic on the basis of the Household spending data. German Trade data were mixed with Exports in line with forecasts at 1.7% m/m (vs. February -3.1%), while Imports unexpectedly fell 0.9% m/m (vs. forecast +1.0%, February -1.4%), but are probably less significant than the Production report. Industrial Production just beat forecasts at 1.0% m/m 3.2% y/y, thus offering some grounds for suggesting that Q1's dip was more strike and weather related, and that momentum going into Q2 was positive, notwithstanding the weak Orders data reported yesterday (-0.9% m/m, though domestic orders rise 1.5%).
RECAP: The Week Ahead - Preview: 07 to 11 May 2018
- As has been the case for much of this year, political factors may end up riding up roughshod over what is a reasonably busy week for major economic data (US, China, UK, Eurozone), with the BoE meeting, US Treasury quarterly refunding and plenty more corporate earnings as an accompaniment. The political clouds are familiar: Trump's likely decision to exit the Iran nuclear pact, another round of NAFTA talks, Brexit negotiations (both within the governing (pardon, what? Ed.) UK Conservative party and UK/EU) and a looming crunch decision on whether a fresh set of elections will be held in Italy. (The UK & Ireland being closed on Monday).
- Statistically this week's US CPI is expected to confirm the upward creep in inflation data, though adverse base effects (that will continue until the end of Q2) are a key contributing element, and the Fed's emphasis on a symmetric approach to its inflation target must be borne in mind. As such the projections for headline CPI at 0.3% m/m 2.5% y/y (March 2.4%) and core CPI at 0.2% m/m 2.2% y/y (March 2.1%) are hardly going to create a headache for the FOMC. PPI is expected to be well behaved at 2.8% y/y despite surveys indicating upward pressure on Prices Paid; Import prices, NFIB Small Business Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings are also due. For China, a close eye will be kept on any evidence that trade tariff moves by both US and China are starting to have an impact on PPI, which is seen at a still very subdued 3.4% y/y vs. March's 3.1%, while CPI is expected to dip a little further to 1.9% y/y from 2.1%, underlining a lack of inflation pressures, though the Non-food component (last 2.1% y/y) probably give a rather more reliable pointer to the trend rate. Be that as it may, it should allow the PBoC to concentrate on easing RRR rates, rather than tweaking s-t interest rates to try and influence the overall credit impulse. The Bank of Japan remains a long way from getting any real traction on boosting CPI, and will hardly greet an expected no change 1.0% y/y on nominal Labour Cash Earnings (wages) with any satisfaction, in so far as this implies real Labour Cash Earnings will continue to languish in negative territory at -0.4% y/y. The UK and the major European economies will report Industrial Production and Trade numbers this week, with the hope that they should underline that the January and February weakness was heavily influenced by weather effects (with German & French output further hampered by strikes), though it has to be added that March weather across Northern Europe was for choice worse than February). Further highlights include UK Construction Output, BRC Retail Sales and RICS House Prices, and Canada has its labour market report.
- The sharp volte-face on UK rate expectations following Carney's comments, weak Q1 GDP and last week's Services PMI have seen the probability of a hike on 10 May plunge from 87% to just 10%, though markets are still discounting a 53% chance of a 25 bps hike in August. The vote may be rather closer than the 7-2 against a hike at recent meetings, and the bank's fresh round of economic forecasts in its Q2 Inflation Report will be critical in determining whether markets continue to discount one hike this year. New Zealand's RBNZ is not expected to move on rates, and indeed the consensus looks for a rate hike no earlier than Q2 2019. For all that last week's NZ Wage growth remained very soft (0.3% q/q), the drop in the Unemployment Rate to a very low 4.4%, allied with the NZD falling more than they had been assuming may just prompt to take a slightly less dovish turn in its accompanying policy statement. Rate hikes of 25 bps are expected in Romania (to 2.5% - delivered) and Philippines (to 3.25%), though the former is due to a frothy economy (above all Wages at 11.2% y/y), and the latter a rather belated response to partly currency driven pressure on CPI (last 4.5% y/y vs. BSP target of 2.0-4.0%). There will be a goodly volume of Fed and ECB speak, while no change rate decisions are expected in Malaysia (where the general election takes place next week), Mauritius, Peru, Serbia and Sri Lanka (the latter may surprise given LKR weakness).
- Govt bond supply picks up sharply next week (see table below), with the US leading the way with a total of $73 Bln of 3, 10 & 30 yr, accompanied by $90 Bln of 3 & 6-month T-bills, and something in the region of $40 Bln of 1-month T-Bills. The UK tops up its current 10-yr Gilt, while the Eurozone sees auctions in Austria, Germany, Italy x2), Netherlands and Portugal.
- The Iran nuclear deal exit by the US is well discounted by oil markets, any surprise may could prompt some volatility, while the droughts in the US and South America have powered sharp rise in Wheat prices, and there will thus be a lot of attention given to this week's May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
- Corporate earnings will remain plentiful, with highlights for the rest of the week including:
* Wednesday:
SoftBank, Toyota // Ahold Delhaize, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Deutsche Telekom, Enel, ING, Siemens, UniCredit // ADT, Altice USA, CenturyLink, Coty, IAC/InterActiveCorp, MBIA, Mylan, 21st Century Fox // Ambev
* Thursday:
Panasonic // BT Group, Dropbox, Nvidia. Symantec, Ultra Petroleum // Banco do Brasil
* Friday:
Nissan // Altice SA, ArcelorMittal, Thomson Reuters
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
C
cantagril
I see that...if only I'd got the the entry. As it was I had some breakfast and it was all over by the time I'd done.....
Am now looking at GBPCHF for a bounce
C
cantagril
Now long GBPCHF at 1.3535 Target 1.3580
EG coming off so we should some kind of movement.
EG coming off so we should some kind of movement.
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dollar index
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
prev supp area started...so major rez looming
as always ....who knows
as always ....who knows
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
way overbought aswell
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
usdjpy
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
usdjpy gone into rez
