Dentalfloss
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Nas 100 retesting 6600 rez
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Upside failure....
Dentalfloss
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6600 the catalyst today
Dentalfloss
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Naz
maybe 6600 pops..??
maybe 6600 pops..??
Dentalfloss
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plenty more horizontal rez looming
Dentalfloss
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6640 a real dog
Dentalfloss
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pump or dump...or a fake
Dentalfloss
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will it break...???
Dentalfloss
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6640..and dump
scalps in and out
scalps in and out
Dentalfloss
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whacked
Dentalfloss
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Mornin Folks
Dentalfloss
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NAZ...no change....maybe today ??
its staying above the trendline...reasonably bullish
6500 is trendline test
a couple of lines on the chart and yu have a good feel of what could happen
its staying above the trendline...reasonably bullish
6500 is trendline test
a couple of lines on the chart and yu have a good feel of what could happen
Dentalfloss
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Dax into the open
Dentalfloss
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dax testing rez...will it pop.?
Dentalfloss
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cable in mega rez now
Dentalfloss
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ditto eurusd
Dentalfloss
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Digesting China inflation, Japan Orders; awaiting busy run of UK activity
data and key US CPI data; March FOMC minutes accompanied by further run
of ECB speakers; trade tensions subordinate to threat of Syria air
strikes, Russia risks still playing out; German 30-yr and US 10-yr sales
- China inflation: much lower than expected CPI, and PPI drop underline
February jump due to Lunar New year and base effects; put rate hike
talk to the sword; Food prices remain key, above all sensitive to
trade tensions
- Japan Orders: better than expected outturn implies Q1 CapEx likely to
remain solid; overall 2018 outlook clouded by trade tensions
- UK Production: Forties disruption washed out, now for weather effects;
also likely to impact volatile Construction Output, perhaps Trade too
- US CPI: base effects in telecoms to exert upward pressure, Food prices
likely less benign than forecasts assume given PPI food surge; OER
and medical / pharma pressures to again pace core m/m gain, apparel
a wild card
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today probably marks the high watermark for major data this week, via way of the overnight China CPI & PPI and Japanese Private Machinery Orders, while ahead lie the gamut of UK Industrial Production, Trade, Construction Output & NIESR GDP estimate and the all-important US CPI. On the policy front, there is the keynote speech from new PBOC governor Yi Gang to digest and the usual neutral message on rates from RBA governor Lowe, while ahead lie the FOMC minutes, speeches from ECB's Hansson (hawk) and IMF's Largarde, and a likely very resolute no change rate decision from Poland'S NBP. Govt bond supply takes the shape of an as ever modest EUR 1.5 Bl of 30-yr German Bund and $21.0 Bln the re-opening of US 10-yr. The shadow of trade tensions and Russia sanctions will remain very much front and central, as will the promised 'swift response' of the US (France and perhaps the UK) to the suspected chemical attack in Syria, following on from yesterday's UN Security Council vote. On the Credit front, it is worth mentioning in passing that the deluge of issuance (be that the jumbo Saudi sale yesterday or the 'everything under the sun from Asian names - see Fixed income headlines) over the past two days underlines a couple of points: a) 'reach for yield' is more than alive and well despite the uptick in volatility and the 'walkabout' in some Russian names, and b) despite, or even because, issuers have had to offer Wider spreads to ensure placement - though spreads remain very tight by any historical standards. That said, Eurozone markets reaction to ECB's Nowotny hawkish leaning comments yesterday, later labelled Nowotny's personal view by ECB sources, underline that there remains considerable sensitivity to the nuances of the ECB policy outlook.
In respect of the overnight Asian data, the larger than expected setback in China's CPI to 2.1% vs. forecast 2.6% and a 4 1/2 yr high of 2.9% in February, underlined that the February spike was largely due to Lunar New Year and base effects, most clearly evident in the heavily weighted Food CPI component, which plummeted to 2.1% y/y from February's 4.4%, though Non-Food also dropped (2.1% vs. 2.4%). With PPI still in retreat, in no small part due to the strength of the CNY offsetting rises in energy and industrial raw materials prices, it does underline that market chatter that incoming PBOC governor Yi Gang would be under pressure to hike rates when he took over was misplaced, and he will as he said in his keynote speech today be able to stick to the so-called 'prudent' monetary policy that was extant under his predecessor. A key wildcard for CPI as the year progresses will be whether the threatened tariffs on US agricultural imports (most notably pork and soy) are actually implemented, which could see Food prices rebound quite sharply. Japanese Private Machinery Orders easily beat forecasts 2.5% m/m correction to January's unrevised 8.2% m/m surge, and per se imply a much stronger than expected profile for Q1 CapEx than most had been anticipating, though with trade tensions brewing, Japanese companies will likely be rather more cautious if US/China trade tensions metastasize into outright protectionism.
** U.K. - February Industrial Production, Trade & Construction Output **
- The Forties oil field disruption should wash out of February's Industrial Production, though the cold weather will have given as boost to energy output, accounting for expectations of a 0.4% m/m headline gain, however it may equally have been a dragging on Manufacturing and Construction Output. As such, there look to be downside risks to the forecast of a modest 0.2% m/m rise in Manufacturing Output, with the consensus looking for a 0.9% m/m rebound in Construction Output after a -3.4% m/m slide in January, with the weather and Carillion collapse suggesting that this may prove to be optimistic. As for the Trade Balance, a marginal narrowing to £-11.9 Bln from January's £-12.3 Bln is expected, but with a number of UK west coast ports disrupted by the weather, the risk of an outlier is probably even higher than usual, though as with all of today's data, and indeed the follow-up for March, attempting to extrapolate underlying trends from these readings is not advised. Per se, there is some risk that the NIESR GDP estimate for Q1, which is in part a function of today's data, misses projections of an unchanged (vs. Dec-Feb) 0.3% q/q.
** U.S.A. - March CPI **
- CPI is forecast to post a flat m/m reading at the headline level, but this would still see the y/y tick up to 2.4% from 2.2%, with core CPI seen up by the "usual" 0.2% m/m, which would bump the y/y rate to 2.1% from 1.8%, as adverse base effects start to take their toll, and this will be a key driver until the end of Q2. At the headline level, the question is whether ca. 10 cent rise in gasoline prices on the month is offset by other (household energy prices) and a flattish profile to food prices, which is assumed in the flat m/m reading, though the big jump in PPI Food Prices yesterday gives reasons to doubt that. At the core level, housing and medical/pharma related pressures will likely be the main elements in an expected 0.2% m/m rise, with recently choppy Apparel prices a wild card, but in y/y terms it will be the unwind of the drag from mobile/wireless charges last year which will likely be the key driver of the anticipated jump to 2.1%.
from Marc Ostwald
data and key US CPI data; March FOMC minutes accompanied by further run
of ECB speakers; trade tensions subordinate to threat of Syria air
strikes, Russia risks still playing out; German 30-yr and US 10-yr sales
- China inflation: much lower than expected CPI, and PPI drop underline
February jump due to Lunar New year and base effects; put rate hike
talk to the sword; Food prices remain key, above all sensitive to
trade tensions
- Japan Orders: better than expected outturn implies Q1 CapEx likely to
remain solid; overall 2018 outlook clouded by trade tensions
- UK Production: Forties disruption washed out, now for weather effects;
also likely to impact volatile Construction Output, perhaps Trade too
- US CPI: base effects in telecoms to exert upward pressure, Food prices
likely less benign than forecasts assume given PPI food surge; OER
and medical / pharma pressures to again pace core m/m gain, apparel
a wild card
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
Today probably marks the high watermark for major data this week, via way of the overnight China CPI & PPI and Japanese Private Machinery Orders, while ahead lie the gamut of UK Industrial Production, Trade, Construction Output & NIESR GDP estimate and the all-important US CPI. On the policy front, there is the keynote speech from new PBOC governor Yi Gang to digest and the usual neutral message on rates from RBA governor Lowe, while ahead lie the FOMC minutes, speeches from ECB's Hansson (hawk) and IMF's Largarde, and a likely very resolute no change rate decision from Poland'S NBP. Govt bond supply takes the shape of an as ever modest EUR 1.5 Bl of 30-yr German Bund and $21.0 Bln the re-opening of US 10-yr. The shadow of trade tensions and Russia sanctions will remain very much front and central, as will the promised 'swift response' of the US (France and perhaps the UK) to the suspected chemical attack in Syria, following on from yesterday's UN Security Council vote. On the Credit front, it is worth mentioning in passing that the deluge of issuance (be that the jumbo Saudi sale yesterday or the 'everything under the sun from Asian names - see Fixed income headlines) over the past two days underlines a couple of points: a) 'reach for yield' is more than alive and well despite the uptick in volatility and the 'walkabout' in some Russian names, and b) despite, or even because, issuers have had to offer Wider spreads to ensure placement - though spreads remain very tight by any historical standards. That said, Eurozone markets reaction to ECB's Nowotny hawkish leaning comments yesterday, later labelled Nowotny's personal view by ECB sources, underline that there remains considerable sensitivity to the nuances of the ECB policy outlook.
In respect of the overnight Asian data, the larger than expected setback in China's CPI to 2.1% vs. forecast 2.6% and a 4 1/2 yr high of 2.9% in February, underlined that the February spike was largely due to Lunar New Year and base effects, most clearly evident in the heavily weighted Food CPI component, which plummeted to 2.1% y/y from February's 4.4%, though Non-Food also dropped (2.1% vs. 2.4%). With PPI still in retreat, in no small part due to the strength of the CNY offsetting rises in energy and industrial raw materials prices, it does underline that market chatter that incoming PBOC governor Yi Gang would be under pressure to hike rates when he took over was misplaced, and he will as he said in his keynote speech today be able to stick to the so-called 'prudent' monetary policy that was extant under his predecessor. A key wildcard for CPI as the year progresses will be whether the threatened tariffs on US agricultural imports (most notably pork and soy) are actually implemented, which could see Food prices rebound quite sharply. Japanese Private Machinery Orders easily beat forecasts 2.5% m/m correction to January's unrevised 8.2% m/m surge, and per se imply a much stronger than expected profile for Q1 CapEx than most had been anticipating, though with trade tensions brewing, Japanese companies will likely be rather more cautious if US/China trade tensions metastasize into outright protectionism.
** U.K. - February Industrial Production, Trade & Construction Output **
- The Forties oil field disruption should wash out of February's Industrial Production, though the cold weather will have given as boost to energy output, accounting for expectations of a 0.4% m/m headline gain, however it may equally have been a dragging on Manufacturing and Construction Output. As such, there look to be downside risks to the forecast of a modest 0.2% m/m rise in Manufacturing Output, with the consensus looking for a 0.9% m/m rebound in Construction Output after a -3.4% m/m slide in January, with the weather and Carillion collapse suggesting that this may prove to be optimistic. As for the Trade Balance, a marginal narrowing to £-11.9 Bln from January's £-12.3 Bln is expected, but with a number of UK west coast ports disrupted by the weather, the risk of an outlier is probably even higher than usual, though as with all of today's data, and indeed the follow-up for March, attempting to extrapolate underlying trends from these readings is not advised. Per se, there is some risk that the NIESR GDP estimate for Q1, which is in part a function of today's data, misses projections of an unchanged (vs. Dec-Feb) 0.3% q/q.
** U.S.A. - March CPI **
- CPI is forecast to post a flat m/m reading at the headline level, but this would still see the y/y tick up to 2.4% from 2.2%, with core CPI seen up by the "usual" 0.2% m/m, which would bump the y/y rate to 2.1% from 1.8%, as adverse base effects start to take their toll, and this will be a key driver until the end of Q2. At the headline level, the question is whether ca. 10 cent rise in gasoline prices on the month is offset by other (household energy prices) and a flattish profile to food prices, which is assumed in the flat m/m reading, though the big jump in PPI Food Prices yesterday gives reasons to doubt that. At the core level, housing and medical/pharma related pressures will likely be the main elements in an expected 0.2% m/m rise, with recently choppy Apparel prices a wild card, but in y/y terms it will be the unwind of the drag from mobile/wireless charges last year which will likely be the key driver of the anticipated jump to 2.1%.
from Marc Ostwald
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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yes sir
Dentalfloss
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excellent
