Trading with point and figure

dentist007 said:
SPX into the open
a mass of support for bulls to choose from


29z6848.png
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Res hit
 
Morning all,

Long EG .8915 Target .8930 then 50...again
 

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dentist007 said:
0.88900 supp area needs to hold

2uy3tro.jpg
Click to expand...

I was looking at the 4H and thinking that the chances of getting .8950 are improving...hence my so far crap trade. I was long yesterday evening, closed out, then took a look at where things might be going and got back in again....paying the spread and a pip or so for the privilege.

Though it did touch .8930 just now, I didn't get a fill and am on the point of being stopped out at BE.
 
Digesting UK BRC Retail Sales, RBA no change and weak Oz retail Sales,
Kuroda ruling out any early exit from current policy settings; awaiting
South Africa GDP, US Factory Orders, Riksbank testimony, Fed and BoE
speakers, auctions in Germany, Austria and UK

- Fed's Quarles comments on 'Volcker rule' changes well worth noting

- US Factory Orders: non-durables seen leaning against sharp fall in
aircraft orders, focus on any Non-Defence Capital Goods revisions

- Australia RBA: downgrading of growth outlook reinforces no change
view for rates in 2018

- Charts: US 10yr yield, Hong Kong Dollar, WTI Oil, LME Zinc

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The events schedule has the advantage over the data run in terms of potential market moving events today, with the political backdrop as ever offering the potential for one or other newswire "tape bomb". The no change decision from the RBA came as no surprise, while the rest of the day brings speeches from Fed's Dudley & Brainard, and BoE's Haldane, and a number of top level speakers at the CERA week Energy Forum. Statistically there are the overnight UK BRC Retail Sales, Australian Current Account and Retail Sales (disappointingly week again) along with Korean CPI to digest, with the only other items of note ahead being South African GDP and US Factory Orders. Government bond supply comes via way of small two tranche sales of Inflation Linked Bunds in Germany, 5 & 10-yr conventionals in Austria, and 30-yr conventional UK Gilts. While NY Fed's Dudley spoke as recently as last week, the dovish leaning Brainard has not (though it is worth remembering that she did not dissent in December), and it will be interesting to hear take on where she sees the balance of risks in terms of Fed policy considerations. It will also be worth noting whether there is any sparring on Riksbank policy at the testimony to parliament by governor Ingves and Ohlsson, who dissented and voted for a rate hike at the last policy meeting. Statistically US Factory Orders (exp. -1.3% m/m) are expected to see a smaller drag from the drop in Boeing orders already reported in the provisional Durable Orders (-3.7% m/m), with the more important element being whether the unexpected drop in Core Orders sees any revision (prov. Non-defence Capital Goods ex-Aircraft), given that this ran counter to the anecdotal evidence from the consistently high ISM Orders indices. Also on the agenda today, the US Congress will likely vote through legislation to roll back parts of Dodd-Frank, though this is specifically aimed at easing regulations on smaller community banks, while maintaining existing rules for large / money centre banks. However as Fed governor Quarles put everyone on notice yesterday, changes to the 'Volcker rule' are being prepared by the Treasury and the Fed, which will go through via the regulators rather legislation, and which should above all clarify the very nebulous rules on what are 'market making' activities as opposed to 'prop trading', and which should allow rather more 'financial intermediation' activities (i.e. improving market liquidity).

In respect of the RBA, the statement was notably less upbeat on the growth outlook, and by extension implies that the probability of wages getting anywhere near governor Lowe's 3.5% y/y target (Q4 just 2.1% y/y) remains very low in the foreseeable future, and the RBA will likely be on hold in rate terms until the end of the year, at the very least.

From Marc Ostwald
 
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