Dentalfloss
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Bears toasted
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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pump areas show up nicely
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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25150....my final offer....lol
Moneylender
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Dax showing signs of weakness, down 40 pips off it's highs.
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk
Moneylender
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Jobs are short 148K
Dentalfloss
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Short from retest of 25150
Tight stop
Dentalfloss
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Pivot at 25125
Dentalfloss
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25100 has a pivot area
Dentalfloss
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Near the 25100
Stops very tight
Stops very tight
Dentalfloss
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25110 stopped outexcellent
Dentalfloss
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In minor rez now
Moneylender
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Down to 13280 both called by you and me!:cheesy:
Dentalfloss
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25150....and dump....again
Luvin it
Luvin it
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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25130 for a pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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Still holding
Dentalfloss
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dow
Dentalfloss
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US December 2017 Labour report: 'By no means a game changer, but confirms labour market remains tight'
a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - At 149K, with a net 9K downward revision to October and November, headline payrolls were below expectations, however the average monthly increase for Q4 is 203K, and is way above the so-called 'breakeven rate' of 80-100K. In the detail, the Retail sector reverted to shedding jobs (-20.3K), reversing the seasonal 26.4K gain in November, while Professional/Business hiring was rather sluggish at +19K, after recent strength, as was Leisure & Hospitality. By contrast hiring in the Manufacturing (+25K) and Construction (+30K) sectors remained very robust.
b) Unemployment Rate / Household Report - Headline Unemployment Rate was as expected at an unchanged 4.1%, though the U-6 Underemployment did tick up to 8.1% from 8.0%, with the Household survey also seeing a very modest 64K rise in the labour force, along with a 104K rise in Employment and 40K drop in in Unemployment.
c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - Earnings were bang in line with forecasts at 0.3% m/m 2.5% y/y, despite a downward revision to November to 0.1% m/m 2.4% y/y, and per se still not indicative of any real upward pressure on wages despite an ostensibly tight labour market. Manufacturing hours dipped 0.1% m/m, suggest a modest dip in Manufacturing Output, but with another strong 0.7% m/m rise in Mining Hours and an even stronger 1.0% m/m rise in Construction, headline Industrial Production should see an overall gain.
d) Market reaction - the kneejerk reaction was to sell the USD and edge Treasury yields lower, but that proved to be short-lived, though the yield curve continues to flatten, while equities continue their upward march. As has been the case for much of H2 2017, the labour data are becoming much less of a major market mover. That said, the combination of loose 'financial conditions' (increasingly a major concern for the FOMC), a weaker USD and the seemingly relentless in risk asset prices, and the supposition that the tax reform bill will boost consumer spending in the short-term, does underline that the risk in terms of Fed policy is for a steeper rate trajectory than is currently assumed, above all by markets.
- Charts: USD TWI, US 10yr yield, S&P500 future and Fed rate probabilities by meeting.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
a) Payrolls / Establishment survey - At 149K, with a net 9K downward revision to October and November, headline payrolls were below expectations, however the average monthly increase for Q4 is 203K, and is way above the so-called 'breakeven rate' of 80-100K. In the detail, the Retail sector reverted to shedding jobs (-20.3K), reversing the seasonal 26.4K gain in November, while Professional/Business hiring was rather sluggish at +19K, after recent strength, as was Leisure & Hospitality. By contrast hiring in the Manufacturing (+25K) and Construction (+30K) sectors remained very robust.
b) Unemployment Rate / Household Report - Headline Unemployment Rate was as expected at an unchanged 4.1%, though the U-6 Underemployment did tick up to 8.1% from 8.0%, with the Household survey also seeing a very modest 64K rise in the labour force, along with a 104K rise in Employment and 40K drop in in Unemployment.
c) Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - Earnings were bang in line with forecasts at 0.3% m/m 2.5% y/y, despite a downward revision to November to 0.1% m/m 2.4% y/y, and per se still not indicative of any real upward pressure on wages despite an ostensibly tight labour market. Manufacturing hours dipped 0.1% m/m, suggest a modest dip in Manufacturing Output, but with another strong 0.7% m/m rise in Mining Hours and an even stronger 1.0% m/m rise in Construction, headline Industrial Production should see an overall gain.
d) Market reaction - the kneejerk reaction was to sell the USD and edge Treasury yields lower, but that proved to be short-lived, though the yield curve continues to flatten, while equities continue their upward march. As has been the case for much of H2 2017, the labour data are becoming much less of a major market mover. That said, the combination of loose 'financial conditions' (increasingly a major concern for the FOMC), a weaker USD and the seemingly relentless in risk asset prices, and the supposition that the tax reform bill will boost consumer spending in the short-term, does underline that the risk in terms of Fed policy is for a steeper rate trajectory than is currently assumed, above all by markets.
- Charts: USD TWI, US 10yr yield, S&P500 future and Fed rate probabilities by meeting.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
