- UK PSNB budget and US Existing Home Sales the only highlights on another
quiet day for statistics; UK Queen's speech and EIA oil inventories the
other points of interest
- US Existing Home Sales seen dipping marginally, focus on inventories
constraint
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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Once again the economic data schedule looks unlikely to create much in the way of disturbances for financial markets, outside of the latest UK PSNB budget data, and the often volatile US Existing Home Sales. In event terms, the Queen's speech will be the focal point in the UK, though whether it really offers any fresh insights into the Brexit process looks to be questionable, particularly as the agreement with the DUP is not yet under lock and key. It being Wednesday, the beleaguered oil markets will be watching for the EIA oil inventories, which follows API data that were broadly in line with forecasts outside of Distillates, with Crude stocks down 2.7 Mln bbls vs. expected 2.1 Mln, Gasoline +346K vs. forecast 443K, while Distillates rose 1.8 Mln vs. expected +465K. Given the persistent weakness of oil markets, above all the fact that current WTI prices look to be below estimated breakeven levels for US shale producers, a closer eye needs to be kept on the HY Credit market, which had been a very strong performer in the rally, and in currency markets on the likes of the RUB, MXN and CAD, whose rallies are being relatively quickly reversed, particularly the Rouble.
** U.S.A. - May Existing Home Sales **
- Following on from last week's dip in the NAHB Housing Market Index (albeit to a still strong 67) and the sharper drops in Housing Starts and Building Permits, the focus today turns to Existing Home Sales. These are forecast to be barely changed m/m at a very solid 5.55 Mln SAAR pace, with the April Pending Home Sales drop of 1.3% m/m implying some downside risks. As has been the case for some months now, the low level of inventories does appear to be acting as a constraint, even though they rose last month to a still rather low 4.2 months' worth of supply.
from Marc Ostwald