Trading the SPX

[Atilla]

Coming into that 16:10 (11:10) turn window .....

EDIT:
Wel that side ways chop hints its wants to invert ( today is a orange day 1 of the cycle) we can have an extra point between in lunch....

Hi everyone,

I'm back again and your predictions are spot on Bez. With oil falling I'm not sure SPX will fall by that much. I also feel expectations of what's coming round the corner will cause some traders to sell off early perhaps. I don't know I'm just guessing as I feel like shorting ahead of 1445-50 which is where I'm still expecting SPX. (Mixed up kid )

And so I have at 1441.6. Small entry for now. See how it goes. No SL at the mo as I can imagine SPX going through the roof. For target 1435 sounds good and ambitious. I might take half or all profits at 1436.5. Don't want to be greedy. :cheesy:

 

[Bez]

This recent price action has been a nasty triangle based pattern on the ES....

The triangle target has been hit & its just gone 5=1....If that doesn't catch the eye of the sellers then its just the Bots left palying there own kind of game.....

 

[Atilla]

This recent price action has been a nasty triangle based pattern on the ES....

The triangle target has been hit & its just gone 5=1....If that doesn't catch the eye of the sellers then its just the Bots left palying there own kind of game.....

Forgive me Bez I'm just a basic text book lay man kind of trader, what does 5=1 mean?

Also why is the triangle nasty? My understanding of triangles is that they continue in their trend once they have worked them selves to their end points or near of.

Still short. Probably leave it through the holiday period too.

 

[Bez]

Nasty as in I tend to favour more volatility Pesky would of been a better word to use..

5=1 is Elliott Wave ref: Wave 5 often equals the length of wave 1 in basic 5 wave patterns where wave 3 is longer than wave 1 . Its always a popular resistance point as its an easy place to put in a stop and reverse order if the price breaks about the 5=1 point...

If the 5=1 overbalances ie the price goes above that level then the next level that comes into play is the 161.8% of W1 measured from the top of the wave 1 high...

 

[Buy The Dips]

This recent price action has been a nasty triangle based pattern on the ES....

The triangle target has been hit & its just gone 5=1....If that doesn't catch the eye of the sellers then its just the Bots left palying there own kind of game.....

So far appears to be some type of 'Ending diagonal' on 10 min SPX chart starting from Friday....may finally get some short scalp trades into next 2.5 week low due 4-18+/-

2.5 week cycle high is due to crest today 4-9 (1.25 week mid-cycle from Mar 30 low)

 

[Buy The Dips]

Still think crash scenario could occur here into July 5.

Check out the 3:19 minute mark here......

(Another trader talks briefly on same thing)

 

[Atilla]

Still think crash scenario could occur here into July 5.

Check out the 3:19 minute mark here......

(Another trader talks briefly on same thing)

I've seen Oscar's video and some other traders on Bloomberg mentioned a similar scenario. I've closed my short pos upon some retrace today but wondering where the impulse to take on the highs going to come from.

AMD have announced cut backs and reversal on hiring people. One could say it's one of the flagship Nasdaq indicators. I'm not too hot on Intel either. Another trader commented on IBM failing to make new highs.

Looking at the fundamentals I have no idea where this surge or new highs in this climate will come from.

Also, as most traders expecting this reaction I can't help thinking we might have some shakeout first too.

I reckon we are looking at a big fall tomorrow to test support to around 1415 and then big show of support passing 1440 and maybe 1450-60 levels as profesionals predict.

Then the big meltdown to 1350 regions towards end of week after ECB raises rates on Thursday.

Just a hunch. I'm not confident about direction at all. Will follow the charts move.

On technical level I'm looking at the charts to see if 1465 levels will be breached if not then I'd bet on a a double top.

 

[fibonelli]

The latest COT data shows a huge divergence between the small and large speculators.

http://www.technicalindicators.com/cotstocks.htm

 

[ajaskey]

Price/Time Resistance

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2006-02-01&id=p08615106205&a=78682475&listNum=2

 

[Buy The Dips]

From Steve Copans site

ITD 4 - MTD 9 completing in here.....

http://matrixnewsletter.com/images/SP500solutionb_000.JPG

I've seen solutions where ML-TD #3 could extend into late April.......if so.......things may continue down into that late April confluence of ITD 7 MTD 10 ML-TD 3

April 27-29 is also negative Bradley cluster of Venus squaring/opposing the Uranus/Jupiter square

Evidence that markets could get rattled ahead next 2-3 weeks

 

[Joules MM1]

these days the SPX thread looks more like the professor from the Simpsons has ransacked the local clinic.........lottsa knob tweakin goin on eh........industrius............

some newbies to the thread are probably wondering when the entrances and exits for these trades are going to be shown...........just so they can see that there's some real-trade functions and not assume that this is mere theoretic..........I'd be interested too..........

have a good one..........

Joules

 

[Atilla]

From Steve Copans site

ITD 4 - MTD 9 completing in here.....

http://matrixnewsletter.com/images/SP500solutionb_000.JPG

I've seen solutions where ML-TD #3 could extend into late April.......if so.......things may continue down into that late April confluence of ITD 7 MTD 10 ML-TD 3

April 27-29 is also negative Bradley cluster of Venus squaring/opposing the Uranus/Jupiter square

Evidence that markets could get rattled ahead next 2-3 weeks

Very interesting... I had almost given up on my big fall but does this chart imply the wave down to 5 towards end of this week is still in play. So maybe 1415-1400 will still be hit.

Followed by a big rise to 6 but making a lower high and then the big melt down to 7 and 10.

That would be amazing the predictive power of these charts.

 

[Atilla]

Hi everyone,

Here is a section taken out of this article on Bloomberg - U.S. Stocks Tumble; Fed Says Economy Is Slowing, Rates May Rise

The ``worst-case scenario'' for investors is a period of heightened inflation and slowing growth, known as stagflation, said Art Hogan, the Boston-based chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co.

``That's the 800-pound elephant in the room that no one likes to talk about,'' Hogan said. ``You're fighting two things at the same time and monetary policy is rendered useless while that's going on.''

On FA level I've mentioned this a number of times and the fact that even the word is being mentioned is very significant imo.

Monetary policy is useless as a single tool. Only way is to keep interest rates low to stimulate industry and raise taxation to curb demand led inflation. Hopefuly, US exports can lead the way hence resolving Budget & BoP defecits.

I really can't see higher highs in next few months. Even if they do occur for what ever reason I can't see them being sustained.

Not good news at all...

 

[Buy The Dips]

I really can't see higher highs in next few months. Even if they do occur for what ever reason I can't see them being sustained.

Not good news at all...

Atilla, heres another news item to add on the pile

Investor Margin Debt Borrowing at record highs, surpassing March 2000
http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070411/REG/70411010

 

[Buy The Dips]

There is room for rally to SPX 1445 area, then SPX looks like it wants to head for 1385 +/- into April cycle lows.

 

[Buy The Dips]

so hence are you suggesting we have seen a simple abc with a very enxtended c wave

No, not a simple ABC, fractal from Feb 5 to March 16 is a perfectly channeled textbook double-combination.

Wave (A) completed on March 16, Wave (B) so far has completed as a simple ABC on a perfect Gann .625 time retracement on April 10

Biggest mistake in Elliott theory is traders who use highs and lows as the end of all Elliott patterns. Elliott patterns typically end in channels and often end on higher/lower prices. This is why those who use strict Frost/Prechter Elliott rules will encounter errors where patterns begin and end. NEowave and Zoran Gayers bifurcation theory are much better Elliott theory concerning pattern termination.

Pattern like this should see selloff very soon.....

 

[Joules MM1]

hey BTD ...........champion, thanks for the reply

still liking the long plays.......

 

[Joules MM1]

No, not a simple ABC, fractal from Feb 5 to March 16 is a perfectly channeled textbook double-combination.

Wave (A) completed on March 16, Wave (B) so far has completed as a simple ABC on a perfect Gann .625 time retracement on April 10

Biggest mistake in Elliott theory is traders who use highs and lows as the end of all Elliott patterns. Elliott patterns typically end in channels and often end on higher/lower prices. This is why those who use strict Frost/Prechter Elliott rules will encounter errors where patterns begin and end. NEowave and Zoran Gayers bifurcation theory are much better Elliott theory concerning pattern termination.

Pattern like this should see selloff very soon.....

ok..........we'll see..........not sure which text book that channel comes from..........there seems to be a lot of text books which veer from what Elliott said.........as far as I can assertain a B wave will remain a bullish signal as b as part of a corrective process....... so a correction of what? is that a fair question.........?

 

[Atilla]

hey BTD ...........champion, thanks for the reply

still liking the long plays.......

I think the TAs pointing up but FA is pointing down for me. I never feel comfortable when the strength of feeling between the two is so strong (personaly speaking)...

What is driving the markets up? Don't see it... I only see threats to economies...

Oil up to $63. Gold stuck at $675+. Bombs in Iraqi parliament - green zone. What next?

 

[Joules MM1]

I think the TAs pointing up but FA is pointing down for me. I never feel comfortable when the strength of feeling between the two is so strong (personaly speaking)...

What is driving the markets up? Don't see it... I only see threats to economies...

Oil up to $63. Gold stuck at $675+. Bombs in Iraqi parliament - green zone. What next?

Hi Atilla, you're making that wall of worry look freshly painted today.........btw, in 1942 the dow went on a 5 month buying binge.......in the middle of WWII..........